Gleason: Palin will help GOP win 'four or five' congressional seats in PA

Politicker PA ^ | 9/16/08 | Alex Roarty

[impeachedrapist]

AL-05 is Bud Cramer's old seat. He's a centrist Dem known for strongly supporting missile defense (see Huntsville AL). This district went 60% for Bush in '04. Dem Parker Griffith is running against Wayne Parker, who I believe has run for this seat twice. June 30th FEC numbers showed Griffith with $352K cash, $10K in debt. W. Parker had $73K cash and no debt. The Dem had an early lead, but a recent left-leaning poll showed only a 45-40 Dem lead.

[impeachedrapist]

GA-08 is a district Bush carried with 61% in 2004. Jim Marshall won by one point in 2006. With a Presidential election, he's facing a real struggle. Retired Maj General Rick Goddard was recruited by the NRCC to run against Marshall. As of 30 Jun the incumbent Dem had about $1.3M in the bank, with Goddard having $489K.

[impeachedrapist]

WI-08 is a rematch from 2006, which freshman Dem incumbent Steve Kagen won by three points over Pubbie John Gard. President Bush took WI-08 with 55% in 2004. As of 20 Aug Gard had $651K on hand, while Kagen had $827K. However, Gard had no debt while Kagen had $469K in debt.

[impeachedrapist]

AZ-05 is J.D. Hayworth's old district. Earlier this year Pubbies had a 136K - 93K advantage in registration in AZ-05, and Bush took 54% in '04. Freshman incumbent Dem Harry Mitchell is facing off against David Schweikert, who is endorsed by the Club for Growth and won a primary earlier this month. After the primary Schweikert has $6K more in debt than cash, while Mitchell is fat with $1.3M.

[impeachedrapist]

IL-14 is Denny Hastert's old seat the GOP lost this year during a special election. Dem Bill Foster defeated Jim Oberweis 53-47, and the rematch is on. Bush carried this district in 2004 with 56%. As of 30 Jun the Dem incumbent has $443K cash, with $1.004M in debt. Oberweis had $547K on hand, with $1.645M in debt.

[GOPJ]

Thanks for the ping.

[TAdams8591]

WOW! : )

[Clemenza]

I have lots of friends and colleagues in PA-8, as it is right across the Delaware from my sorry district. I will do my part to get them to vote for Tom.

[impeachedrapist]

You’ve still got time. Move!! :-) Seriously, thanks for trying to help Tom Manion take back a seat.

[impeachedrapist]

MS-01 is in the northern part of Mississippi. From 1941-1996 it was represented by Dem. Jamie Whitten, the longest House tenure in history.

CQ

The Dems won MS-01, 54-46, in a special election earlier this year. The seat came open when Gov. Barbour picked current rep. Roger Wicker to fill Trent Lott's Senate seat. President Bush carried this district with 62% in 2004. This November features a rematch between incumbent very freshman Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis. FEC data on June 30th (not long after the special election) showed both candidates with slightly more debt than cash on hand. Davis should benefit from a larger turnout this November in a conservative district, but losing just a few months ago probably won't help his cause.

[impeachedrapist]

1996 in tenure para above should read “1995”

[impeachedrapist]

KY-03 gave 49% to Bush in 2004. Pubbie Anne Northup held this seat until 2006, when she lost by about two points. (FYI: She missed many weeks of campaigning during a dismal GOP year due to her son's death.) In her 2008 rematch a larger turnout in a slightly Dem leaning district probably won't help her against freshman incumbent John Yarmouth. Northup also ran against Gov. Fletcher in the 2007 GOP primary, undoubtedly bruising some feelings. But you couldn't tell by the fundraising. On 30 June this race was very competitive financially. Yarmouth had a cool million in the bank, with just over $130K in debt. Northup had no debt and $819K on hand.

[impeachedrapist]

TX-23, which used to be Henry Bonilla's seat, went for President Bush with 57% in '04. But freshman incumbent Ciro Rodriguez defeated Bonilla in '06 by more than 8 points in a Dec 06 run-off. Rogriguez is now running against Lyle Larson. This southwest TX district borders Mexico and is heavily Hispanic, so I'm thinking the Rodriguez name ain't gonna hurt. But the DCCC is apparently worried, because last week they just filed an FEC complaint against Lyle. :-) In late June Larson had $279K with no debt, while the incumbent freshman had $1.2M and virtually no debt.

[pburgh01]

That sock puppet Altmire is a joke. He is a classic case of Democratic party politics. He got the sit down by Nancy and was told..”How much pork you need, ok we can do that, now here is what you vote yes on, now go away and I better not hear from you about wanting to be on any committees or anything.” Freshman Dem Congressman get redshirted for at least 2 terms. This guy is a hack, ventriloquist dummy, and needs to be beaten and come home and get a freaking job. He is a useless piece of human oafel

[impeachedrapist]

they know they are in swing districts with a candidate that’s somewhat flaming out at the top of their ticket (I’m sure THAT’S RACIST to say that!!!)

Actually, I believe that would be homophobic. :-p

[impeachedrapist]

Hey, we can access our old data again. Yippee!!!!

Although I've been focusing on GOP pick-up opportunities, just in the past week or so I found some unexpected good news in another PA race. Jim Gerlach (R, PA-6) has had incredibly close races the past two or three elections, just barely hanging onto his district in/around the Philly suburbs. I had assumed he was at the top of the Dems' target list again this year.

But that appears to not be the case. His campaign released an internal (GOP, obviously) poll from mid August, before the Palin explosion. Gerlach was leading at that time by more than 20 points. And on 30 June he had about three times the money his challenger had (approx. $750K to $250K) in a district Kerry won with 52%. This news can't be helpful to the Obamessiah's quest to carry PA.

[impeachedrapist]

PA-12 is the district long held by the infamous Jack Murtha, known for ABSCAM corruption, pork distribution, and more recently his public smearing of eight Haditha Marines. Bush took nearly 49% of this district in 2004. In 2008 Murtha is facing a retired Army Lt Colonel named Bill Russell.

As of 30 June Murtha had $644K cash on hand, with $4K in debt. Russell had $270K on hand, but $243 in debt.

Murtha still has to be considered the favorite here, but the race is definitely winnable for Russell. That FEC data in June showed Russell had raised about $929K total. However, in early Sep his campaign officially announced he has raised a total of more than $2 million. This was before he started airing a powerful TV ad using Murtha's treasonous words against him. And before most of the Palin surge, and before Murtha faced down a second lawsuit from Justin Sharratt. I have a feeling that the FEC filing of Bill Russell for 30 Sep is going to raise a lot of eyebrows and make Murtha break into a cold sweat.

Murtha also just last week was once again named by a left-leaning group (CREW) to the Top 20 list of Congress' most corrupt members. Murtha has been getting a LOT of negative publicity in print and on the airwaves this past few days, which almost certainly is translating into even more support for Bill Russell. Will it be enough to knock off the corrupt, bloated king of pork? Stay tuned.

[LS]

Isn’t there another seat in PA that is really competitive? I don’t think it’s Murtha’s, but seems to me that I saw one-—maybe it’s Gerlach.

[impeachedrapist]

Other than the ones I’ve listed throughout this thread? I don’t recall seeing one in my reading, but it’s certainly possible.

[impeachedrapist]

The PA seats generally considered most competitive for the GOP to win are PA-10 (Carney), PA-11 (Kanjorski), PA-7(Sestak), PA-4 (Altmire) and PA-8 (P. Murphy).

Charlie Cook considers PA-3 (English), PA-6 (Gerlach), PA-15 (Dent), and PA-18 (Murphy) as possible - but not very likely - Dem pick-ups of Pubbie seats.

I include PA-12 as a very real dark-horse opportunity for the GOP.