KY-03 gave 49% to Bush in 2004. Pubbie
Anne Northup held this seat until 2006, when she lost by about two points. (FYI: She missed
many weeks of campaigning during a dismal GOP year due to her son's death.) In her 2008 rematch a larger turnout in a slightly Dem leaning district probably won't help her against freshman incumbent John Yarmouth. Northup also ran against Gov. Fletcher in the 2007 GOP primary, undoubtedly bruising some feelings. But you couldn't tell by the fundraising. On 30 June this race was very competitive financially. Yarmouth had a cool million in the bank, with just over $130K in debt. Northup had no debt and $819K on hand.
TX-23, which used to be Henry Bonilla's seat, went for President Bush with 57% in '04. But freshman incumbent Ciro Rodriguez defeated Bonilla in '06 by more than 8 points in a Dec 06 run-off. Rogriguez is now running against
Lyle Larson. This southwest TX district borders Mexico and is heavily Hispanic, so I'm thinking the Rodriguez name ain't gonna hurt. But the DCCC is apparently worried, because last week they just filed an FEC complaint against Lyle. :-) In late June Larson had $279K with no debt, while the incumbent freshman had $1.2M and virtually no debt.