Posted on 09/23/2008 7:28:41 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
I haven’t followed this one, so I can’t comment.
I read the numbers. I doubt Horn will win. But Obama's got some problems in NH. If his numbers tank over the next ten days, that could be enough to deliver both NH seats back to the Pubbies.
Her opponent was considered “hard right” and he had run against gay RINO incumbent Jim Kolbe in the primary last time and didn’t enjoy full party support.
People who don’t see losses coming are usually in denial about their observations. Like I said, there are very good reasons why Murtha is struggling. There are very good reasons why Hodes isn’t. He’s been playing this term and this re-election perfectly. Don’t be “too” anything: too arrogant, too stubborn, too proud, etc. He’s been a case in slow and steady wins the race. You can’t find people who are angry at Hodes. At worst, they are indifferent. No one can really say what he’s done badly. He’s running as “generic Democrat” in this race, and NH-2 is very welcoming right now to “generic Democrat.” 2000, 2004, and 2008 have seen towns in NH-2 grow more and more Democrat, bit by bit. It’s very demoralizing to GOP workers, but it’s a tough environment.
And? The same can be said about people who don't see victories coming. Four weeks ago I guarantee you would have been scoffing at the thought of Murtha losing. Some folks have a great deal of trouble distinguishing between "can win" and "will win."
No, I wouldn't have been scoffing. Big mouth celebrity politicians fall on their faces all the time (Tom Daschle, for example). Guys like Hodes in districts like NH-2 with a top of the ticket like Lynch (and Obama, who is paying for a lot of NH campaign workers who are indirectly working for Hodes' re-election) don't lose except in political tsunamis.
All incumbents have built-in advantages; hence they’re huge re-election rates. But NH-2 only gave Kerry 52%, so while it’s left-leaning it’s hardly insurmountable. I will be surprised if Horn defeats him. However, if on election night I’m seeing McCain/Palin deliver a 4- or 5-point national win then I’m going to be watching quite a few House races, including NH-2, very closely.
I can tell you that along with Obama signs, we saw Carney signs all the way to the Media rally. Other than that, I have no other information. : (
“In love with Palin” ping
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