Posted on 09/22/2008 5:18:34 PM PDT by Publius804
Polling Methods May Tilt Obama Results, Exec Says Wednesday, September 17, 2008 7:31 PM
By: Ron Kessler
Most polls may be overstating Barack Obama’s support by 5 to 10 percentage points because those surveyed may not be telling the truth about voting for him, ad executive Gabe Joseph III tells Newsmax.
It is possible that, when live callers ask for a respondent’s name, the individual is more likely to say he will vote for Obama, says Joseph, president of ccAdvertising, which conducts polls for a range of candidates and members of Congress. When automated dialers do the polling, respondents are more likely to give an honest answer because they think of the poll as being anonymous.
“I believe the traditional pollsters, when they ask your name, institute a bias,” Joseph says. “We never ask anybody who they are. We do not have to. The only personal identification we obtain comes at the end of the survey when we ask about gender and age.”
The difference is apparent when automated pollster results are compared with traditional polls that ask the individual’s name, he says. In many circles, particularly within the traditional Democrat base, it is politically incorrect to tell a pollster the respondent will not vote for Obama, he says.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Polls by the MSM always overstate the popularity of the Democrat candidates. These polls are reported in combination with stories that praise the Democrat candidate and attack and ridicule the Republican candidate. It is all part of the MSM disinformation program.
That’s *why* they alter results.
It does state that in the article.
Yea, but that’s roughly what edge Obama will have with the cheating at the polls, so it all works out pretty accurately in the end.
I would say it is both plus more. They are oversampling DEMs, they are reporting registered voters instead of likely voters, nearly every important demographic (women, independents) have been shifting to McCain, and there is likely to be a Bradley Effect in this election. Taken together, these polls could be off by quite a lot.
The Obamumunists/Obamaniacs are cellar dwellers or some other social miscreants, just dying for someone to call them...
So if you get one of those phone push button polls, don't they know who you are or are those random numbers?
“union members protecting their sixes”
LOL! I’ve worked in a union environment most of my life. We would take a contract vote, it would pass by maybe a 3:1 margin. The next day, you couldn’t fine one person that would admit to voting FOR it!
Yep....probably every union guy or gal who’s been passed over for promotion to settle a company quota.
I think a lot of Republicans, including me, don’t participate in polls because we don’t trust the people asking questions. Pollsters are the same as the media.
The more people see Obama on their TV screens, and understand his extremely limited experience, the more they will say, “Are you kidding me?” and vote for McCain.
Obama has training wheels on his bicycle, while McCain is about as well prepared to be president as anyone could possibly be.
This is wishful thinking I believe - This isn't the 1950's, 60's or even 80's any longer....Reality is this election will be razor close. It is now down to 3 States. That being we must hold OH and CO..(lose either one and we likely lose the election)......The third state being that of a fall back State (in case we lose one of these two)....This fall back State will either be MI or PA (whichever our guys behind the scenes think we have the best shot of pulling an upset in.......neither being that good. As neither State has went Republican in over 20 years....and both have recently elected DEMs Senator's and Gov’s).
It appears the poll was done beginning on the last day of the Republican convention.
Any poll that asks for a respondent by name can immediately be labeled as junk. It would come from a voter or otherwise compiled list and that instinctively means a biased survey in terms of sampling. Reliable surveys use a "RDD" Random Digit Dialing method with preferably a live person on the line asking the questions and recording them, not automated.
I think it is both.
I agree.
Most peole know obama’s mother was white.
The one drop rule is long dead in the inteligent citizen domain.
Obama is being black for political purposes.
What “effect” do they call it when 95% of black peole make their election choice ONLY based on skin color?
- union members protecting their sixes
Yep. Considering how the Teamsters operate, I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot union types think the pollster calls aren’t from Gallup but from their union pulling some kind of loyalty test.
The Obamabots are pushing the racism meme, but it may just be that the union members may not be towing the union line. Remember the AFL/CIO has nearly 1 billion dollars invested in this race.
1) The Bradley effect (worth 3-5%, with the higher end going to those areas which are the most liberal - read "politically correct")
2) Poll weighting of "Democrats" vs "Republicans". Can't find the article at the moment (I'll continue searching) but pollsters "weight" their polls using "party affiliation". the problem is that party affiliation doesn't change as much as pollsters think it does.
3) Liberals are the "me too" party. Liberals love to tell you how liberal they are. Conservatives are generally more reserved about talking politics: especially to strangers (and this affects exit polls as well as pre-election polls).
4) "Independents" are not really independent. They are more conservative than the median. As Bill O'Reilly said the other night (and I can't remember why I was watching him, I never do) "Tie goes to McCain. In a close race, those who are REALLY undecided will pull the lever for the safer choice."
and finally,
PA is going for McCain/Palin this cycle. Bet the ranch.
I figure the call was placed by the same computer that recorded the data. I assume it was semi-random, based mostly on my area code.
One of the live person polls asked a question about my age & I was told that they already had enough samples of people my age. I was then asked if there was anyone in my household between 18 & 25. Since there was, my roomy was polled.
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