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Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 265 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 273 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 260.79 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

Previous projections:

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

McCain’s best hope is to flip Minnisota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin to his side.

UGH! I hate Wayne County deciding for the whole rest of the state every election!

It’s coming down to holding Colorado. Bambi’s strategy depends on turning NM, IA, and CO blue. He will succeed with NM and IA. We need to prevail in CO.

Nice overview of the mental health status of our nation.

Geeze.

McCain will win PA. End of discussion.

We also take Michigan and Ohio.

..that Pennsylvania projection is complete nonsense...

How did In Trade do with the Palin pick? Oh yeah... that's right... they BLEW IT!

LLS

Although I do believe that this method has some value as an indicator, it is certainly subject to manipulation by anyone willing to spend some money for a favorable result.

This Electoral Map is now on the front page of Intrade. It’s instantaneous, and much faster moving, as I posted on this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2086290/posts?page=2#2

Intrade Profit Opportunities for this Election Cycle
Intrade Prediction Markets ^ | September 19, 2008 | Intrade

Posted on Friday, September 19, 2008 7:00:36 PM by Kevmo

Within the last couple of days, Intrade has posted a version of the electoral map that Momaw Nadon has been generating once a week. The map is now instantaneous. ....

_____________________________________________________

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2086290/posts?page=19#19

Momaw, tomorrow you’ll be posting the electoral map as usual. But things have changed dramatically for that map due to the one on Intrade. It might be time to just convert your list into an Intrade Ping List.

If JM flips New Hampshire, its all tied up.

I wonder if this takes into consideration the sizable numbers of democrats who, despite what they say in public, will not pull the lever for Obama because of their own racial prejudices.

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%
16-Jun	248.41	26.06%
23-Jun	233.92	15.76%
30-Jun	234.84	16.21%
14-Jul	237.43	19.14%
21-Jul	231.61	14.15%
28-Jul	233.21	15.18%
4-Aug	234.45	16.45%
11-Aug	242.62	21.56%
18-Aug	246.64	25.20%
25-Aug	248.30	25.59%
01-Sep	255.23	32.44%
08-Sep	254.33	30.70%
14-Sep	272.47	51.00%
22-Sep	260.79	38.30%

I've also been running a stochastic model of the electoral college count based on Rasmussen state polls going back to the beginning of the year.

Here are the results going back to the week of 30-Jun-2008:

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
30-Jun	247.61	14.79%
7-Jul	243.61	10.79%
14-Jul	246.70	12.66%
21-Jul	242.84	7.08%
28-Jul	230.98	2.46%
4-Aug	232.92	3.11%
11-Aug	234.99	4.16%
18-Aug	244.11	11.64%
25-Aug	253.91	21.71%
08-Sep	260.56	32.23%
15-Sep	275.60	62.48%
22-Sep	271.13	54.65%

For comparison, if you think that Republicans are underpolled, the sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that an across-the-board 1% reduction in Obama polling and a 1% increase in McCain polling results in 297.29 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 93.61% chance of winning.

Here are my leanings of the states based on Rasmussen polls:

Safe (100%) R	Strong (86%-99%) R	Likely (70%-85%) R	Lean (60%-69%) R	Toss-Up	Lean (60%-69%) D	Likely (70%-85%) D	Strong (86%-99%) D	Safe (100%) D
Alabama (9)	South Carolina (8)	Florida (27)	Colorado (9)	-	New Hampshire (4)	Maine (4)	Iowa (7)	California (55)
Alaska (3)	West Virginia (5)	Missouri (11)	Indiana (11)	-	Pennsylvania (21)	Oregon (7)	Michigan (17)	Connecticut (7)
Arizona (10)	-	North Carolina (15)	Nevada (5)	-	Washington (11)	-	Minnesota (10)	District of Columbia (3)
Arkansas (6)	-	Ohio (20)	New Mexico (5)	-	Wisconsin (10)	-	-	Delaware (3)
Georgia (15)	-	-	Virginia (13)	-	-	-	-	Hawaii (4)
Idaho (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Illinois (21)
Kansas (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Maryland (10)
Kentucky (8)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Massachusetts (12)
Louisiana (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	New Jersey (15)
Mississippi (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	New York (31)
Montana (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Rhode Island (4)
Nebraska (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Vermont (3)
North Dakota (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Oklahoma (7)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
South Dakota (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tennessee (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Texas (34)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Utah (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Wyoming (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

-PJ