What's the Top Electoral College State This Year? (Colorado)

Real Clear Politics ^ | September 19, 2008 | Stuart Rothenberg

[Clintonfatigued]

Two months ago in this space, I identified five states that I argued would pick the next president. Tell me how these states -- Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and Michigan -- will go in November, I wrote, and I'll tell you who will be our next president ("The Big 5: Picking the States That Will Pick the President").

As the presidential race has developed, those five states seem to hold the same predictive value now that they did then. Sure, there are a handful of additional states that could turn the election to either Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) or Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) -- New Hampshire, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina -- but the longer the list, the less it tells us about who'll win.

I've become convinced that my initial list of five states probably can be boiled down to just one -- one state that is most likely to determine who will be the next occupant of the White House. And that state is Colorado.

[Reagan Man]

Colorado can be broken down along certain voting constituencies. Those Democrats aligned with the liberal bastions of Denver/Boulder; Republican voters in the highly conservative enclave of El Paso County/Colorado Springs; the independent voters of Douglas and Jefferson Counties; and the independent conservative minded voter in the rural areas of the state.

Whats happened in recent years, is the State GOP has been alseep at the wheel. They've offered up weak candidates for office -— Beauprez, Coors, Walcher are three perfect examples of bad choices. While at the same time, the Democrats have been very aggressive in going after the many independent voters throughout the state. Holding the DNC in Denver was a master stroke in the way of political propaganda for all the Democratic Party candidates. Including Obama at the top of the ticket.

In the last 40 years, Colorado has voted for a Democrat for President once. That was 1992 and that was for Clinton. When its all over, I believe Colorado will choose McCain-Palin this time around. With El Paso County leading the way.

[comebacknewt]

My prediction has been a replay of the 2000 electoral map.

Obama takes back Iowa and New Mexico. McCain takes back New Hampshire. If it happens, McCain would win 278 - 260.

NH now looks very iffy, but the only other state of major concern is Colorado. I keep expecting it to drift back to the GOP, but it has been very resistant.

One of the things I keep taking comfort in is that Republicans have the most registrations in Colorado followed by Independents and then Democrats. If McCain wins the Indies (and he has a very good chance of doing that), then the only way Obama wins the state is to either get a HUGE Democrat turnout or else win more Republicans than McCain wins Democrats.

Pretty tall order for him. In the end, I still think McCain hangs on in Colorado and with it wins a narrow Electoral College victory in November.

[Clintonfatigued]

The rural areas of Colorado are very different. The Western Slope is independent, mostly conservative, but not reliably Republican. The Eastern Plains are more reliably Republican, but subject to what are known as Farm Rebellions.

IMHO, the Loveland/Fort Collins/Greeley areas are the key.

[steadcom]

This will play out just like 2004 with Obama, however, picking up Iowa and New Mexico.

McCain 274 - Obama 264

Colorado will decide it and is a must win for McCain or he loses.

IMHO

[freespirited]

Thanks for the post. Do you have any idea how much influence Dr. Dobson has in CO?

[comebacknewt]

My personal belief is Dr. Dobson alienates as many people as he attracts. However, his full, unequivocal support of McCain might prove crucial in Colorado. Without it, his followers will not volunteer as readily or be as enthusiastic in their outreach efforts for McCain.

Dr. Dobson has been speaking much more positively of McCain lately and has been getting closer to putting out a full "call to arms" to his followers, but he hasn't quite done it yet. My guess is he will get there before all is said and done. It should help.

[Red Boots]

I would like to know what Colorado-FReepers think of the political analysis that the Amendment on individual-rights-to-the-unborn, Amendment 48, will do for fundamentalist-voter-turn-out as far as swinging the election in Colorado.

I don't know as I've heard nothing about it over here on the other side of the mountains. Some observations: In driving across the western part of the state, I've seen more O signs than McCain, but overall the sign levels are way down from 2004.Our ultra-rabid dem neighbors, who last year had a multitude of signs, this year have none. I don't know if they are Hillary supporters or what.

I wouldn't put too much stock inn the number of R voters vs d and Is because our area has Rs outnumbering D's 2 to 1, but last time elected a huge slate of Dems. We gave Bush the state, but lost almost everything else.

This year those Dems are running as incumbents and they seem stronger. The Republican party seems way weaker and less organized. I attended the cacases and left my name as a volunteer and haven't even heard. And I've gotten no mailings or anything.

In contrast, the Obama community organizers are recruiting even over here.

And there's no question that Colorado has gotten more way more California refugees since last time.

It's not in the bag for McCain/Palin by any means.

[Gondring]

PA is rather conservative, once you get away from the suburbs of Philly/Pittsburgh.

[Gondring]

[...]our area has Rs outnumbering D's 2 to 1, but last time elected a huge slate of Dems.

Sounds like the Philly suburbs.

[Red Boots]

I saw a great bumpersticker for your area, and mine:

REPUBLICAN

Because we can't all be on welfare !