Posted on 09/19/2008 4:15:28 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Two months ago in this space, I identified five states that I argued would pick the next president. Tell me how these states -- Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and Michigan -- will go in November, I wrote, and I'll tell you who will be our next president ("The Big 5: Picking the States That Will Pick the President").
As the presidential race has developed, those five states seem to hold the same predictive value now that they did then. Sure, there are a handful of additional states that could turn the election to either Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) or Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) -- New Hampshire, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina -- but the longer the list, the less it tells us about who'll win.
I've become convinced that my initial list of five states probably can be boiled down to just one -- one state that is most likely to determine who will be the next occupant of the White House. And that state is Colorado.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Whats happened in recent years, is the State GOP has been alseep at the wheel. They've offered up weak candidates for office -— Beauprez, Coors, Walcher are three perfect examples of bad choices. While at the same time, the Democrats have been very aggressive in going after the many independent voters throughout the state. Holding the DNC in Denver was a master stroke in the way of political propaganda for all the Democratic Party candidates. Including Obama at the top of the ticket.
In the last 40 years, Colorado has voted for a Democrat for President once. That was 1992 and that was for Clinton. When its all over, I believe Colorado will choose McCain-Palin this time around. With El Paso County leading the way.
Obama takes back Iowa and New Mexico. McCain takes back New Hampshire. If it happens, McCain would win 278 - 260.
NH now looks very iffy, but the only other state of major concern is Colorado. I keep expecting it to drift back to the GOP, but it has been very resistant.
One of the things I keep taking comfort in is that Republicans have the most registrations in Colorado followed by Independents and then Democrats. If McCain wins the Indies (and he has a very good chance of doing that), then the only way Obama wins the state is to either get a HUGE Democrat turnout or else win more Republicans than McCain wins Democrats.
Pretty tall order for him. In the end, I still think McCain hangs on in Colorado and with it wins a narrow Electoral College victory in November.
IMHO, the Loveland/Fort Collins/Greeley areas are the key.
This will play out just like 2004 with Obama, however, picking up Iowa and New Mexico.
McCain 274 - Obama 264
Colorado will decide it and is a must win for McCain or he loses.
IMHO
Thanks for the post. Do you have any idea how much influence Dr. Dobson has in CO?
Dr. Dobson has been speaking much more positively of McCain lately and has been getting closer to putting out a full "call to arms" to his followers, but he hasn't quite done it yet. My guess is he will get there before all is said and done. It should help.
I don't know as I've heard nothing about it over here on the other side of the mountains. Some observations: In driving across the western part of the state, I've seen more O signs than McCain, but overall the sign levels are way down from 2004.Our ultra-rabid dem neighbors, who last year had a multitude of signs, this year have none. I don't know if they are Hillary supporters or what.
I wouldn't put too much stock inn the number of R voters vs d and Is because our area has Rs outnumbering D's 2 to 1, but last time elected a huge slate of Dems. We gave Bush the state, but lost almost everything else.
This year those Dems are running as incumbents and they seem stronger. The Republican party seems way weaker and less organized. I attended the cacases and left my name as a volunteer and haven't even heard. And I've gotten no mailings or anything.
In contrast, the Obama community organizers are recruiting even over here.
And there's no question that Colorado has gotten more way more California refugees since last time.
It's not in the bag for McCain/Palin by any means.
PA is rather conservative, once you get away from the suburbs of Philly/Pittsburgh.
Sounds like the Philly suburbs.
REPUBLICAN
Because we can't all be on welfare !
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