[nobamanada]

Good. Remember that Maine splits it’s electoral votes. If the race is this close, they can split them up.

[Parley Baer]

Good news. Interesting that some of the polls have shown Hussien regaining the national lead the individual states seem to show otherwise.

[Darren McCarty]

I like seeing that. Maine 2 is then in play (Not much of a chance in Maine 1 thanks to Portland)

[stevem]

I doubt Maine is really “in play.” Yet doesn’t Maine possibly split its electoral votes? How do they calculate that?

[John Robie]

It would be good if McCain culd pick up some of Maine’s electoral votes. I believe they are divided among the districts. It could be a tie breaker in a close election.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

Maine often gets weird when they finally vote for POTUS/VP in the general election. The percent of voters that voted for Ross Perot in ‘92 was amazing.

[JohnnyZ]

In 2004, Kerry won Maine by 8.99 points, but only won the 2nd Congressional District by 5.8 points. I think there will be an even greater divergence between the CDs in 2008 because Obama polarizes white collar vs blue collar.

I previously estimated that McCain would do 4-6 points better than Bush in the 2nd CD but 4-6 points worse in the 1st CD, all things being equal, which would put the 2nd CD at about a tie at best. But if McCain raises his overall Maine performance even two points, he would have a real good chance at a narrow win in CD2.

[cw35]

Money spent in Maine is even more wasteful than in NJ.

[Gay State Conservative]

I don't believe it for a minute.You look at past results and you see that ME....and RI...are,believe it or not,*much* bluer than Massachusetts.I'll wager the clothes on my back that McLame will be lucky to get 33% of the vote there.

[Norman Bates]

Four point spread in Maine! This means we have an excellent shot at least at carrying the 2nd congressional district.

[Political Junkie Too]

Based on my stochastic model of Rasmussen state polls, as of today McCain has an expected value of 276.99 electoral votes, with a 64.23% probability of winning.

-PJ

[Norman Bates]

The McCain List.

Maine
Obama 50%
McCain 46%

McCain-Palin have closed the gap remarkably in this New England state with, at one point in the summer, McCain being down nearly twenty percent. What is noteworthy about this is that Maine is one of only two states (the other being Nebraska) which apportions its electoral votes by congressional district. Maine's 1st district is liberal and includes Portland. But its 2nd district is more Republican-friendly. If McCain were to win the 2nd district (1 electoral vote) and New Hampshire, he would reach 270 electoral votes and win the Presidency without Colorado, Iowa, or New Mexico. And with only a statewide spread of four points, the 2nd district is well within our reach.

Competing in Maine and its 2nd district ought to be a top priority.

[CharlesWayneCT]

I always thought it was odd that McCain would have “no chance” in a state with two republican senators. After all, McCain isn’t seen as some die-hard conservative right-winger, he should be liked by the people who vote for Snowe and whats-her-face, even if in fact he’s more conservative than they are.

[jmaroneps37]

Keep this in mind Maine voted for Kerry 54/45 in 2004. Now close your eyes and say, “Even if a deep blue state that voted Kerry 54/45, a White man with none of the baggage of Obama is now just + 4 for Obama I believe the national polls that say Obama is up by 5 points.” Repeat this until you believe it.