Election 2008: Maine Presidential Election [Maine in Play? Obama +4]

rasmussenreports ^

[flyfree]

John McCain has pulled within four points of Barack Obama in Maine. That’s the closest he has been in any of the six monthly polls Rasmussen Reports has conducted in the state since April.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Maine voters finds Obama with 50% of the vote and McCain with 46%

[proudpapa]

I doubt Maine is really “in play.”

Believe it!

The black population in Maine is hovering around 1%

And Maine has a lot of Hockey Moms.

Would love to see a big rally in Bangor and Portland!

[proudpapa]

Also,

Maine has two female “republican” senators.

(Which may or may not help...)

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

Maine has ALOT of hunters.....including moose hunters!

I’m sure Sarah strikes a cord with the hunters of Maine.

[MSF BU]

I’ve posted regarding this before. Northern Maine (with it’s one elector) could easily go for McCain. It is certainly an area of people who cling to their guns and religion.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

Not entirely true.

George W. Bush campaigned at an airplane hangar at Bangor International Airport in both 2000 and 2004. McCain was at his side during one of those visits (McCain was suffering from food poisoning at the time, but he was there anyway).

Bill Clinton also campaigned here. I don’t remember if Bob Dole ever came here.

John Kerry, John Edwards and Stephen King (!) appeared at a campaign rally at the University of Maine in Orono (north of Bangor) in 2004. John Edwards and his wife appeared by themselves on another visit to Bangor, at a rally on the shores of the Penobscot River, in 2004.

Obama came here during the primary season....he won the Maine caucus.

Some national candidates only campaign in southern Maine, which is more heavily populated than the rest of the state.

[Norman Bates]

Here’s why that 1 EV counts:

NH + ME-CD2 = 270

We wouldn’t need Iowa, Colorado, or New Mexico.

[Norman Bates]

Four point spread in Maine! This means we have an excellent shot at least at carrying the 2nd congressional district.

[AuntB]

Countdown to McCain
Tune in this Monday when the Republican presidential candidate hits Rach’s kitchen!(CBS)

http://www.rachaelrayshow.com/

Cooking with McCain

Tune in on Monday 9/22 when Republican presidential candidate John McCain and his wife Cindy head into Rachael’s kitchen to share their recipe for barbequed ribs.

(see photos-)
http://www.rachaelrayshow.com/show/segments/view/cooking-mccain/

From the previews Senator McCain appeared at ease and Mrs. McCain will explain why they love Palin. Of any of them, Rachel will probably be the most even handed.

[Political Junkie Too]

Based on my stochastic model of Rasmussen state polls, as of today McCain has an expected value of 276.99 electoral votes, with a 64.23% probability of winning.

-PJ

[LS]

Every EV will count. NM swinging back to the Messiah.

[nobamanada]

Colorado had an initiative on the 2004 ballot to split it’s electoral votes, but it failed.

The only states that currently do this are Nebraska and Maine. Usually, it doesn’t happen because the margins by the winners are too high.

[TitansAFC]

Yup,

What could very well be a VERY important ME CD-2!!!

[Norman Bates]

The McCain List.

Maine
Obama 50%
McCain 46%

McCain-Palin have closed the gap remarkably in this New England state with, at one point in the summer, McCain being down nearly twenty percent. What is noteworthy about this is that Maine is one of only two states (the other being Nebraska) which apportions its electoral votes by congressional district. Maine's 1st district is liberal and includes Portland. But its 2nd district is more Republican-friendly. If McCain were to win the 2nd district (1 electoral vote) and New Hampshire, he would reach 270 electoral votes and win the Presidency without Colorado, Iowa, or New Mexico. And with only a statewide spread of four points, the 2nd district is well within our reach.

Competing in Maine and its 2nd district ought to be a top priority.

[Norman Bates]

If McCain can rework some of his Granite State magic, Maine’s CD-2 may turn out to be the most important single electoral vote in history.

[rdl6989]

Great news.

[1035rep]

Obama has been losing ground since late June. McCain has turned blue states competitive. Obama is going to spend time and money defending the traditionally blue states.

McCain is running a very good campaign.

[Norman Bates]

Yet doesn’t Maine possibly split its electoral votes?

Yes, it can.

How do they calculate that?

Two electoral votes go to the statewide winner with 1 EV apportioned for the winner of each of Maine's two congressional districts. For example, if McCain were to win CD-2 while Obama still won CD-1 and overall statewide, McCain would get 1 EV and Obama would get 3 EVs.

[Norman Bates]

Absolutely. I’m thrilled about this development.

[1035rep]

Money spent in Maine is even more wasteful than in NJ.

The campaign knows these states are competitive or they wouldn't be spending the money there.  The same thing was said about Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington and McCain is within just a few points from flipping those states.  I think the McCain campaign knows where to spend the money.

[Clemenza]

Buying ad space for New Jersey means buying ad space in New York AND in Philadelphia, two very expensive media markets. I get both NY and Philly stations, and McCain has already spent alot of money on ads in the latter for the purpose of getting PA.