Posted on 09/16/2008 11:04:11 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
New Jersey is now, according to recent polls, tantalizingly close in the Presidential race. While I do not suggest McCain/Palin expend resources for a NJ victory, this suddenly competitive state could cause more headaches for rejected (by Obama) Harry Reid.
Pulled from the Web:
In [a] poll, conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Lautenberg was leading Zimmer by 45 percent to 28 percent. The poll of 589 registered voters was conducted between June 17 and 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Here
25 Jul 08:
The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released yesterday found Lautenberg leading Dick Zimmer by 45 percent to 37 percent among likely voters.
Here
12 Aug 08, Quinnipiac:
Democratic incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 48 - 41 percent among likely New Jersey voters, a more select group than registered voters surveyed in previous polls.
19 Aug 08:
Democrat Frank Lautenberg has a 50%-32% lead over Republican Dick Zimmer in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a Zogby International poll released today.
Here
This was just a quick search and there are probably other polls out there. Please post 'em if you've got 'em. Regardless, these are NOT good numbers for an incumbent senator. Even the best of those polls only shows Lautenberg at 50%. If McCain/Palin simply make an appearance with Zimmer, it could boost his fundraising and name recognition substantially and perhaps make this one a nailbiter. At least one poll mentioned that Zimmer, despite serving as a NJ Congressional rep, still suffered (when the poll was conducted) from rather poor name recognition.
Others laughed at me (in a kind way) last week for suggesting Lautenberg could lose. That's fine. Just going on polls, I'd say Zimmer's got a shot at stealing a seat.
Then, after digging through FEC data from June 30th of this year, it appears at that time Lautenberg had $1.3 million in cash on hand, but $3 million in debt. Zimmer had $411K on hand, but only $277K in debt. So Zimmer actually appears to be in better shape as of the most recent FEC data.
Lautenberg has raised $6.2 million total, but spent every penny. And he still can't break 50% in the polls?!? If this race isn't on the GOP's radar screen, it should be.
Sorry I have kids to feed. How about $5 or $10 that Lautenberg wins by at least 5% of the vote?
In other words, you’re all talk. :-D
Okay, you won't vote for him. But I say he does have a prayer, and I've provided supporting evidence. So please prove me wrong.
Someone, anyone!!
Republicans win. Rodents steal.
I think the “Zogby International” results you cited are actually from one of Zogby’s on-line surveys of people who sign up to receive e-mails from Zogby (and who can easily claim to be a Bush-voting Republican from NJ when they’re really a Kerry-voting Democrat from Vermont), which are not scientific and can’t even be described as polls. You shouldn’t even look at those. Zogby does conduct scientific polls, which, while not very good, should not be ignored, but the on-line surveys are total crap.
Which makes your point even stronger: Lautenberg can’t even get to 50% with all the money he spent, and Zimmer could steal this one in November.
Ooooh, a photo! Even more convincing than monosyllabic words. :-D
Now YOU I am disappointed in!! :) I know you have data. Lotsa data. Gimme!!!
I wouldn't place a $5 bet at 100 to 1 odds that a meteor won't fall through the ceiling and break my coffee mug.
Look I'm not trying to make this nasty. If you want to flip out because somebody disagrees with you then the conversation is over. I hope Lautenberg losses but I just don't see it happening. Good luck though.
No, you're right. Not my sort of Republican, but the kind who'd have a shot at winning in Jersey, where pro-Lifers are often treated like the Taliban, except that there's a lot more sympathy for the latter.
send McCain?
why?
SEND PALIN!
CONSERVATIVE WINS ELECTIONS
I’ll have to go back and check. But Zogby does conduct some online surveys which use scientific methodology, although still viewed with suspicion as you pointed out. So if it’s one of those I wouldn’t call it junk, but it’s fair to view it skeptically. However, I’ll leave it in, because that poll of all the ones I found was the most favorable (least unfavorable?) for Lautenberg.
And a little hint - next time you want to wager don't trash talk first, thereby putting yourself in the very awkward situation you found yourself in.
Sorry, the headline pissed me off. We had a legislative seat literally stolen by the Dems this weekend in my state from a duly nominated incumbent.
I’m not sure there’s much I can add to your data. I don’t expect Lautenberg to lose. It’s possible, but Zimmer hasn’t been a first-tier candidate for office in 12 years. He’s a second-tier has-been, now looking for a way back in. Sadly, even if he manages an upset, he’s a Whitman liberal and probably wouldn’t vote much more Conservatively than Lautenberg.
He’s a second-tier has-been, now looking for a way back in.
Agreed.
Sadly, even if he manages an upset, he’s a Whitman liberal and probably wouldn’t vote much more Conservatively than Lautenberg.
Socially, you're probably right. Fiscally I think he'd do a much better job. But can't you at least smile at the anguish such an upset would cause Harry Reid?!? :-)
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To: impeachedrapist
Its my understanding that Dick Zimmer is the third in a defective series of candidates backed by the Tom Kean gang of Limousine millionaire RINOs in New Jersey. I believe he only succeeded due to the influence and financial support of the Tom Keans and their allies.
Its also my understanding that the reason the Kean group wanted so badly to get one of their own nominated was to defeat a decent man, a good candidate, a solid Republican and a man who unabashedly ran in the Republican primary as as “conservative” - Joe Pennachio.
Mr. Pennachio, one time Freeholder, State Assemblyman and current State Senator, had long record of supporting all the values so many of us here on Free Republic support.
Dick Zimmer was a man who was out of office for many years and who lost his share of elections.
I believe he was chosen because his Republican values are so diluted that they meet with the approval of the Keans and their associates.
I hope Mr. Zimmer loses to Lautenberg. He doesn't deserve to be elected to the U.S. Senate.
32 posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 2:42:17 PM by ZULU (Non nobis, non nobis Domine, sed nomini tuo da gloriam. God, guts and guns made America great.)
Well, maybe if he were the 51st GOP Senator, but we’ll be lucky to end up with 44 or 45 after January.
I’ve heard mention about Pennacchio and his being sabotaged, but he was the one that was found to have authored that bizarre manifesto that he mailed to Chuck Haytaian back in the early ‘90s, which Murray Sabrin described as fascistic. I glanced through it some months back, and found it was troubling. Of course, we do hold our candidates to far higher standards.
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