I think the “Zogby International” results you cited are actually from one of Zogby’s on-line surveys of people who sign up to receive e-mails from Zogby (and who can easily claim to be a Bush-voting Republican from NJ when they’re really a Kerry-voting Democrat from Vermont), which are not scientific and can’t even be described as polls. You shouldn’t even look at those. Zogby does conduct scientific polls, which, while not very good, should not be ignored, but the on-line surveys are total crap.
Which makes your point even stronger: Lautenberg can’t even get to 50% with all the money he spent, and Zimmer could steal this one in November.
I’ll have to go back and check. But Zogby does conduct some online surveys which use scientific methodology, although still viewed with suspicion as you pointed out. So if it’s one of those I wouldn’t call it junk, but it’s fair to view it skeptically. However, I’ll leave it in, because that poll of all the ones I found was the most favorable (least unfavorable?) for Lautenberg.