Independents swing toward McCain

POLITICO ^ | 9/14/08 | JOHN P. AVLON

[stevek1]

In the wake of Sarah Palin, John McCain has opened up a 15-point lead among independents, according to a new Gallup Poll — and Barack Obama has a real problem.

[NoRedTape]

[ConservativeMind]

I'm really sick of hearing people say it's the people who have no idea what they believe who are the ones who decide elections.

What about the base of a given party, getting back up and cheering and actually getting people energized about their guy/girl?

Those idiots in the “middle” are worthless. Now, if they make a decision based on something solid, that is different.

But, then, they couldn't be considered a “moderate,” anymore.

[AirForceGeorge]

True, Gallup tracking, (I assume the USAtoday Gallup poll shares the same feautures) has always been much more of a “momentum poll.” It reacted quicker and more substantially to events like Obama in Europe, both conventions etc. Rasmussen, on the other hand, like the others, moves slowly over larger periods of time. It is a good idea to use Gallup as a gauge of momentum though it will usually start to line back up with wherever Rasmussen and others are.

[Mamzelle]

re: This has worked great for McCain as it has painted his convention and especially the pick of Palin as major successes at a critical time for Palin. If we had seen bad polling after the Palin pick the media would have declared Palina disaster and a Quayle pick. Luckily, they have to at least concede the point that policitally she has been a good pick while they try to destroy her.)))

Actually, I expected those who ran the polls to lie and try to discourage us. I still think that's a possibility.

[CT]

If Obama is ahead by 10%, then the election is tied. But we need to lead by 10%, just so ACORN and the communist front groups (aka Democrat Party) can’t cheat.

[Owen]

Moderates in the middle DO decide elections, for the very obvious reason of what is very clear in the polls.

GOP voters support McCain 92-8. Dem voters are supporting Obama 88-12.

In other words . . . There’s Nowhere Else To Go To Find Votes than the middle moderates.

People who call themselves independents fairly often are not lacking in passion about issues. Their situation is that their issues are not split predictably. They may be vehemently anti-tax, pro-Victory, pro-Gun, and pro Choice.

See? What do you do about that person? It’s not that they haven’t made up their minds or they don’t know what they think. It’s that their issues are mixed.

McCain’s reputation of not supporting all GOP issues gives him a wedge there. Palin gives him a voice to those particular people that is NOT right wing, but rather, simply, female. They may have one of their issues as equal pay for equal work. They may feel strongly about it, but are still pro Victory. They may have thought the GOP was a purely old boys network. Palin undoes that.

[ConservativeMan55]

Agreed!!!!

[ConservativeMan55]

Rush says moderates only make up about 2 percent of the electorate.

[counterpunch]

Why does this d-bag spend half the article giving 0bama campaign advice?
And this guy was Rudy Giuliani policy director!

Also, I used to think the Politico was fairly even-handed, but I’ve noticed the more McCain gains, the more pro-0bama they become. The shift really became noticeable when McCain picked Palin, with the Politico taking the lead in the unfounded smears against her.

[TheLawyerFormerlyKnownAsAl]

Is a contraction one word or two?

[Thane_Banquo]

0bama is accusing McCain’s camp of being sleazy and dishonest, but most people watching on the internet and the cable news media see that it is truly 0bama and his “angry left” cohorts who are smearing Governor Palin and her lovely family. This turns them off big time.

[Thane_Banquo]

And McCain diffuses it by simply saying, “Monica Goodling, whoever the heck she is, will not be a part of my administration.”

[CatOwner]

With this supposed widening of the lead among independents for McCain, why is the Gallup lead down to 2% for the last two days? Is Obama's attacks bringing DEMs back home and/or casting a bit of doubt amongst GOP supporters?

[GoSarah]

You might want to read this article, and read it to the end. http://www.gallup.com/poll/110287/What-difference-between-registered-voters-likely-voters.aspx

[ConservativeMind]

No, the people who decide the vote are those who vote in the majority. A very small number of moderates or independents make up that vote. If they were that independent or moderate, then they wouldn't be voting for one side over the other.

The reality is that all who vote for someone finally chose to make a partisan decision. Those with mixed-up stances, who can't find someone who is the perfect one that they want, make up 100% of all voters. Everyone compromises with the person for whom they vote.

So don't give me this other stuff. Everyone makes a decision in the end unless you closed your eyes and poked out a random chad.

[SunkenCiv]

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