Independents swing toward McCain

POLITICO ^ | 9/14/08 | JOHN P. AVLON

[stevek1]

In the wake of Sarah Palin, John McCain has opened up a 15-point lead among independents, according to a new Gallup Poll — and Barack Obama has a real problem.

[Chet 99]

Bush had a huge convention bounce and gave most of it back after the debates. Bush’s 2004 bounce was more of your typical bounce from a spate of good publicity.

I think McCain’s move now is far stronger, because it is built on the voters fundamental re-evaluation of the race. The publicity has not been good - the media has been pounding McCain/Palin nonstop, yet the bump remains. There is a concern that the sustained pounding will eventually have an effect.

[snarkytart]

Exactly. That’s why I keep saying it will be close, just like with Kerry. Not as close as Gore, but still, we are not all that much ahead today compared to those links you posted with Bush vs Kerry.
When did the Republican convention start in 2004?

[rushmom]

I feel so bad for Barry.

[FlingWingFlyer]

It ain’t gonna be over ‘til Olberman & Chrissy M. consoling one another on election night.

Yikes! The mental image that conjures up!

[Vigilanteman]

This isn't a problem. Democrats are 45% of the population. Republicans are only 25%. Independents are 30%. So a 30 point lead among the independents still mean the Democrats will get 35% of that 30%.

45% + (35% x 30%) = 55.5%. Nothing to see here, McCain has definitely peaked. Oba Mao is just trying to pad his victory margin and down ticket. < / sarcasm >

[Chet 99]

“Seems obvious to me this Gallup poll was an outlier. No other polls confirmed there was such a big swing to McCain. “

The difference is Gallup doesn’t control by party. The other polls are spotting a 5 to 8% advantage for the Dems, right off the top.

[ConservativeMan55]

The 2004 Republican National Convention, the presidential nominating convention of the Republican Party of the United States, took place from August 30 to September 2,

[goldstategop]

I doubt. All the media's relentless, barrage non-stop negative pounding of Sarah has only boosted her popularity. The more they attack her, the more the ticket rises in the polls. The MSM should stop digging but they won't. Good news for our side!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[GOP Poet]

Well said.

[snarkytart]

It’s scary looking at that, because we are in the SAME place as in 2004. Colorado..toss up, PA showing Bush with SLIGHT lead.
lol
People forget.

We need to remember, this will be close.

[ConservativeMan55]

I agree. These bumps we’re seeing for McCain are not just a fluke.

[sageb1]

"The Bush administration is deeply disliked by many independents and centrists because they feel duped. Bush campaigned in 2000 with an explicitly centrist message as a “compassionate conservative,” but he governed as a polarizing partisan conservative..." after a deceptive war was declared on him by Soros, Gore, Kerry, and the media.

[goldstategop]

With all that Democratic voter registration advantage and a fawning media in its corner, the Democratic ticket still cannot manage to vault to the top of the polls! Something to think about!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[ConservativeMan55]

I agree.

There were also posts I found that showed Bush possibly winning New York, Oregon and Washington.

Just like today

[MovementConservative]

...the preamble to McCain reframing the Republican Party around national security, fiscal conservatism and corruption reform.

I'm still worried that those pigs in the House and Senate(GOP pigs) are going to continue to use public office to enrich themselves and screw over conservatism. There just aren't enough Jim Demints in there to balance out the Ted Stevens and Don Youngs.

[snarkytart]

Right. I remember Bush up or tied in NYC right after the Republican convention, which was in NYC.

[sageb1]

“This is serious business folks. We came way too close to having John Kerry as a President in 2004.”

True and we cannot afford to become complacent.

[ConservativeMan55]

Here it is..

Could New York be battleground state in 04?

[ConservativeMan55]

I agree.

I wish there was something more I could do to help out.

I don’t live in a battleground state. My state is solid red in every single county.

[Jeff Chandler]

Olberman & Chrissy M. consoling one another on election night... in a bath house.