Moderates in the middle DO decide elections, for the very obvious reason of what is very clear in the polls.
GOP voters support McCain 92-8. Dem voters are supporting Obama 88-12.
In other words . . . There’s Nowhere Else To Go To Find Votes than the middle moderates.
People who call themselves independents fairly often are not lacking in passion about issues. Their situation is that their issues are not split predictably. They may be vehemently anti-tax, pro-Victory, pro-Gun, and pro Choice.
See? What do you do about that person? It’s not that they haven’t made up their minds or they don’t know what they think. It’s that their issues are mixed.
McCain’s reputation of not supporting all GOP issues gives him a wedge there. Palin gives him a voice to those particular people that is NOT right wing, but rather, simply, female. They may have one of their issues as equal pay for equal work. They may feel strongly about it, but are still pro Victory. They may have thought the GOP was a purely old boys network. Palin undoes that.
The reality is that all who vote for someone finally chose to make a partisan decision. Those with mixed-up stances, who can't find someone who is the perfect one that they want, make up 100% of all voters. Everyone compromises with the person for whom they vote.
So don't give me this other stuff. Everyone makes a decision in the end unless you closed your eyes and poked out a random chad.