Obama: “If they make a mistake, I don’t want them punished with a baby.”
Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I don’t live in FL anymore so I wouldn’t know. We will win the state. Just make sure we can count on your efforts to win there. We need everyone helping.
Florida was hit really hard by the mortgage crisis, which kneejerks automatically assign to the president, and not to the kid of guys Obama chose to vet his VP, like the former CEO of Fannie Mae ....
Rasmussen like all pollsters and all polls are very overrated and are not capturing the very hard reality in this election, a reality that the media and pollsters do not want to talk about it, a reality that makes it impossible for Obama to win the elections. The reality is that 20% of the democrats are racists who will not vote for a black person under any circumstances. The democrat party is the home of racists in America, whether they are whites, blacks, or Hispanics.
Obama is not up in CO. Look at the numbers: +14% net favorable in favor of McCain. We have GOT to be ahead there.
Of course I forgive you. But that’s not a simple mistake for someone of your caliber (if you lead me to believe so). You aren’t examining the possibilites. Besides, adding CO puts Obama at 273 - squarely over the 270 he needs. If we win NH then it’s a “tie” (we lose). My Western strategy is two pronged: NM and CO. NM will get us to 270 if we lose CO and IA. CO gets us to 274 if we lose NM and IA. All the other states I am banking on (I’m not suggesting we don’t need to shore them up even a lot). Court them both HARD and win just one (we win). We are ahead at least slightly in CO, that’s what the Rasmussen numbers tell me.
“Yet you still don’t address the fact that this is a one day poll on a Sunday with a 4.5% MOE, why?”
It’s a one-day poll on a Sunday with a 4.5 MoE. Of course, state polling is usually one day, and Sunday doesn’t mean anything when Ras is norming for party affiliation.
Add 4.5 points to McCain and take away 4.5 points from Obama if it helps you sleep tonight.
“And what about my point concerning GWB in FL in 2004?”
Florida is not the same state it was in 2004. It is gaining minorities all the time and the housing market is in the dumper. In 2004 people were feeling pretty wealthy around here. This year, they’re watching their neighbors get foreclosed on. GWB won FL by five points. He was an incumbent President in wartime. McCain doesn’t have those tailwinds.
Every election, some states swing from red to blue or blue to red. That Florida has usually been red is an encouraging sign for McCain, but not a definitive one.
That’s comforting to hear but now I feel like the pariahs over at DU. Hell we are surging in all the polls but Rasmussen and the sages tell me because of that the sky is falling. Oh well.
So basically what you are saying is that after 2008 if by some chance we win we are demographically toast everywhere. I thought conservatives supposedly had babies and families. I guess not. Where did all the conservatives move? Did they make a pact to disappear into NY, CA, MA at rates that won’t flip them, but make the rest of America dim?
does anyone know where to find a schedule of republicans campaigning like Rudy and Fred?
I hope you’re right. I hear the sages right now coming along to pour water on your post...
Obama: “If they make a mistake, I don’t want them punished with a baby.”
I hope he’s toast. Or more babies will perish.
I was assuming McCain takes NH. He’s alwasy done well there. Your post is a good example of why I don’t frame these things in terms of Obama. There are numerous possible winning combinations on both sides. I didn’t include your favorite so you chided me.
I’m off to bed. I have almost as many children as Sarah Palin and a full day tomorrow.
Remember Bush won Florida in 2000 by only 537 votes. You damn well better believe this state is battleground. There are WAY too many “snowbirds” and new england transplants down here....enough to put the state in reach for the Dems.
just seen Alan col mes say to Rasmussen that he is a republican pollster of course Rasmussen corrected him but it seems that now the polls are going the way of ours the pollsters are now republicans
they really are running scared.
As for attacking God does this mean they will be attacking Obama on his God, I will not hold my breath.
we have Olberman, Matthews and that idiot guy from MTV sounding off about the right and Palin and yet the British media have had glowing articles of Palin
they can see how great she is and yet these other people are full of hatred as is most of American media
Rasmussen just said that independent women are turning to Palin because of how she is being treated by the media
Look, it was just a mistake. We need to win. Keep working. Good night.
I have seen it too when flicking channels
And we won in 2004 by half a million. Look I think we will win FL and I am not comfortable with a tie in Rasmussen. We need to work harder though.
I havent posted in a while due to wife and kids. I live in Florida, wife is cuban, older member sonly speak spanish, usually am with about 50 cubans a weekend in a family setting. Usually dont talk politics but dislike of obama is palpable. Many of the elderly dont speak english. Further i know many jews who loved clinton but who also fled the riots of the sixties and the seventies back up north who will not support jesse jacksons son in there eyes. I am usually pessimistic and feel that clinton would have won here, but obama has no chance. Further, pollsters always underpoll elderly cubans(language barrier.
Also wonbder about racial undercurrent. I know many people who have registered here to vote first time just to vote against obama for assorted reasons.
WE WILL Win Florida.Dont sweat it Norman.
Once again Clinton had much better shot here.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.