“Yet you still don’t address the fact that this is a one day poll on a Sunday with a 4.5% MOE, why?”
It’s a one-day poll on a Sunday with a 4.5 MoE. Of course, state polling is usually one day, and Sunday doesn’t mean anything when Ras is norming for party affiliation.
Add 4.5 points to McCain and take away 4.5 points from Obama if it helps you sleep tonight.
“And what about my point concerning GWB in FL in 2004?”
Florida is not the same state it was in 2004. It is gaining minorities all the time and the housing market is in the dumper. In 2004 people were feeling pretty wealthy around here. This year, they’re watching their neighbors get foreclosed on. GWB won FL by five points. He was an incumbent President in wartime. McCain doesn’t have those tailwinds.
Every election, some states swing from red to blue or blue to red. That Florida has usually been red is an encouraging sign for McCain, but not a definitive one.
So basically what you are saying is that after 2008 if by some chance we win we are demographically toast everywhere. I thought conservatives supposedly had babies and families. I guess not. Where did all the conservatives move? Did they make a pact to disappear into NY, CA, MA at rates that won’t flip them, but make the rest of America dim?
“Add 4.5 points to McCain and take away 4.5 points from Obama if it helps you sleep tonight.”
Sarcasm will get you nowhere. My point is a friend of mine in New York State who is in the polling business told me that polls with MOE’s over 3% are merely snapshots, nothing more. They are not accurate. Why do you think Scott and Gallup do 3 day rolling averages with MOE’s of 2%? Because they’re accurate, that’s why.
“It’s a one-day poll on a Sunday with a 4.5 MoE. Of course, state polling is usually one day, and Sunday doesn’t mean anything when Ras is norming for party affiliation.”
I referred to Sunday because it was 1 day. Where did you come up with this spin on 1 day State polling? Who other than Ras’ does 1 day snapshot State polling? Mason Dixon? No. Survey USA? No. Quinnipiac? No. Gallup? No. Bill McInturff? No.
“Florida is not the same state it was in 2004. It is gaining minorities all the time and the housing market is in the dumper. In 2004 people were feeling pretty wealthy around here. This year, they’re watching their neighbors get foreclosed on. GWB won FL by five points. He was an incumbent President in wartime. McCain doesn’t have those tailwinds.”
Your above comment can be said of the entire country, not just FL, no way. GWB won by 5 when some polls had him favored by 1 or 2 and some polls had Kerry favored. In the end it wasn’t close. McCain does have tailwinds at his back in many parts of the Sunshine State, maybe not Miami Dade and some of the other well known liberal counties. And I do not buy the line I hear every 4 years that FL’s Spanish community is leaning more and more democratic, this premise has been proven false in every recent national election.
I’m going to watch the Green Bay game now, good night.