Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
True. McCain’s lead is probably bigger. I’m basing that opinion on his McCain’s 61% approval rating in Colorado. No way McCain loses Colorado.
Yes, Joe & Rudy would have appeal in South New York. :) Sarah should visit with the Cuban community though. IIRC her selection was very well received based on the vanity reports posted here.
It depends upon the Cubans who are consistently underpolled in Florida, especially exit polls.
If Rasmussen has accurately accounted for them then he’s right. Its really a small sampling of polling.
his arse licking to Obama is cringworthy to see
even tonight he is still doing it
Me too. This poll has a 4.5% margin of error, and we have a good favorability edge. We are probably ahead by a little bit but not much. Time for McCain to start running commercials there.
The barakapolis rally was all about the colorado firewall strategy. Obama’s camp has repeatedly stated that deny colorado to mccain and there is no way mccain can win.
The media is no longer screaming for the fairness doctrine. At least until they scam a win.
I agree. I feel silly crossing my fingers but that is the fact and the numbers aren’t gelling otherwise.
Well it’s just not true. We can certainly win without CO, it IS harder but we can win. MI, PA, for starters. If we keep NM we don’t need CO because that is 270 right there.
CNN is attacking Palin’s faith in God.
(as is Ms. Olberman)
The atheists are lining up. I bet we are going to see less and less poll numbers other than outlyer outfits like quinipiac or fox news dynamics.
“I’m holding my breath waiting for you to explain the wild discrepancies I’ve pointed out now to you in multiple posts...”
Exhale. I explained them. Different populations, different MoEs. Red state, blue state differentials. When you poll different populations, you get differing results. Things are in great flux right now, polling wise, due to convention bumps. That adds statistical noise.
If it helps you sleep tonight, add 4.5% to McCain’s number and take 4.5% from Obama’s.
I base my faith in Rasmussen on his results. He called 2004 for both candidates within less than a point (Gallup didn’t) and only made one bad call in a state race. He called all 24 races he polled in 2006 correctly.
I pinged DrDeb upthread. She really is an expert on polling. Hopefully she’ll show up here.
Ouch, Obamaramadingaling must be staining his silk boxers.
Cable ads, nice try.
I forgot CO, where Obama is also up. I’m sure you’ve never made a mistake. Can you ever forgive me? Sheesh.
Have you checked the electoral maps at some left wing sites recently? It’s annoying to me because they have given Obama 200 electoral votes already while McCain is running behind with 140 or so with the remainder toss up states.
I don’t have cable. National ads are ads, and McCain’s are on the local channels down here every ten minutes.
Spin it however you wish, but I sat in my Florida family room and watched McCain ad after McCain ad after McCain ad during football all weekend long.
I’m no polling expert either, but I thought these would show a better result for McCain. Rasmussen seemed to be hinting when describing his daily tracking poll methodology that Republicans were being under sampled. Maybe thats the case with these results. Bottom line, is if he wins popular vote at least the 2% he currently leads by, the electoral college will work itself out.
I wouldn’t worry about Gary, Indiana. The city is not big enough to influence the election. Plus they tried to get the fix in for Obama but Hillary won the state anyway.
“He’s doing worse than he was before his convention bump.”
Yet you still don’t address the fact that this is a one day poll on a Sunday with a 4.5% MOE, why? And what about my point concerning GWB in FL in 2004? I don’t care about “happy talk” either, but I also do not dwell on the negative. Lastly, Obambi must win PA, if he’s “ahead” by 2 points in a very blue State then I do not consider that a “happy” place for Axelrod. State polls always lag behind national polls, and you should know that considering the detail you add to your posts.
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