Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Rasmussen’s targets are off. That has to be it.
“Big difference...”
Ideologically yes, but not in voting preferences. Those declaring Republican affiliation are voting for McCain in the same numbers that Pres. Bush got.
Which reminds me... Did Fox dump OpDynamics under the bus?
You had me worried when you said she was gone. She is excellent when it comes to reading polls.
Also, don’t lose any sleep over this poll. All the National polls released today have McCain ahead.
“I don’t need you to tell me or anyone else that.”
For someone who said a few posts ago that you didn’t believe this result, you’re sure acting touchy about it. I’ll post whatever I want; you’re free to disregard.
“Mac’s spending nothing on media.”
I must have imagined all the McCain ads I saw Saturday and Sunday on local stations while watching football.
More good news.
Rasmussen
Monday, September 08, 2008
The Republicans enjoy the biggest advantage on National Security, an issue very important to 69% of voters. On this issue, the Republicans have a 50% to 40% advantage.
September marks the second straight month that the GOP has held a modest lead on taxes, an issue very important to 57% of voters. The Republicans now have a 48% to 46% lead on the issue.
I have bad news
A lot of northeast liberals are now moving to the north state where I am because it is more affordable and easier to get insurance
those who moved south 20 years ago are moving here and many liberals are moving straight here
the amount of northern liberals to this county where I live and other places is truly saddening.
This is what our local elected officials do not understand, the more gated elitist compounds means more north east liberals and those republicans will be voted out one day
There is talk of bringing another air craft carrier into Jacksonville and with that battle group it will mean over another 20,000 people which means more republicans.
My only hope is that many of the natives get out to vote to off set these people.
Near us is a place called palencia, half million $ homes, they have moved there and after a year they wanted our county to build them a school because they think their kids should not go to the same schools as the native kids.
Bunch of elitist pompous people who say they want diversity yet don’t live it.
There was talk down south part that they wanted their own state as they were fed up of living under republican rule I believe.
You and I could talk for hours I think how Fl is and what needs to be done.
Why do the American north east Jewish folk vote for the Dem, it is that party which is against Israel
I really do not understand and Lieberman needs to get the message out but saying that many of the old people who moved here seem to set in their ways
I live in western Pennsylvania. Four of my friends were fanatic Hillary fans and longtime Democrats. They absolutely despise Obama. One refers to him as the anti-Christ. They don’t trust him and they really are ticked off by his sneering references to small town Pennsylvanians. They all watched Palin and McCain’s speeches at the convention. One guy who is in his seventies was really impressed by Palin and McCain. He referred to Palin as “our girl” and pointed out with admiration that McCain can’t raise his arms above his head because of war injuries and he certainly never raised them in surrender.
This is a small sample for sure, but these four Democrats all said they would vote for McCain. McCain is blanketing western PA with t.v. and radio ads. He is spending bundles of money in PA so he must think he can win here. I’m certain he can.
“LadyNavyVet always provides the most pessimistic take possible on the polls.”
One person’s pessimistic is another’s realistic. Somebody has to take the contrarian view, and I have told you in great detail WHY I take the position I do. BTW, the big lead McCain opened up in FL—where is it? Not in the last two polls taken in this state. I can’t predict the future and I’m not going to act like I can, but so far, I, and not those who said McCain was a slam dunk in FL, have been proven right.
And it’s only polite to ping a poster when you’re going to diss her.
I don’t believe this result. I’m still waiting for an explanation, not so much on FL, but on OH and CO which if McCain is running at 1-3 up nationally as you concede how are they explained.
Hurricane Ike was approaching the bluest part of FL, Miami and the Keys. I don’t think Ike had anything to do with the results, but if it did, I doubt Pubbie voters were disproportionately affected.
I don’t want primarily a contrarian view as I want an accurate view. Explain all this accurately. If we are up 1-3 nationally how are we up 7 in FL which is par for national and down 3 in Colorado which is above par for national? Don’t tell me Obama’s taken CO 5-6 points off par because he made a speech in front of styrofoam columns. The pre-conv polls had McCain UP in Colorado. As for FL, we are not up 1-3 national and tied in a state where the GOP had over a half a million vote spread last time and we won easily even in 2006. LOOK AT THE FAV NUMBERS. Something’s amiss. I’m not making excuses for McCain. SOMETHING’S AMISS.
Obviously I meant 7 in Ohio.
One wonders if Ras used the same partisan mix turnout model nationally for each state, or has he been doing his 3 month long party surveys for every state in the union. Seems unlikely because it seems expensive.
If he hasn’t, one does wonder what his mix was.
Regardless it is OVERWHELMINGLY clear that the remaining votes to be found are Independent Moderates. The GOP category is already clearly in McCain’s corner.
“SOMETHING’S AMISS”
4.5% margin of error...that is huge.
> Rasmussen’s targets are off. That has to be it. <
Makes sense. I think the targets are based on something like a 90-day moving average. So there’s probably no way at this early date for them to catch the recent upsurge in ‘Pub enthusiasm.
(The upsurge presumably increases the “eventual” percentage of likely voters who self-declare themselves as Republican — just not yet!)
“Now don’t you tell me he’s opened up a 7-point lead in Ohio and is “tied” in Florida. You know it’s BS.”
If I knew it was BS I would say it was BS, so you can stop implying I’m a liar anytime. I live here, I know Florida. I live in the “swing” area of Florida, the I-4 corridor, and anecdotally, I see a lot more Obama stickers and yard signs than I ever saw for Kerry.
FL is not OH. It is very different demographically, and is less white and male all the time. We have huge numbers of blacks, huge numbers of hispanics, and lots and lots of women voters, all demographics that Obama does well with. The “Californication” of Florida is well underway.
FL is reeling from the housing debacle. Two houses on my upper middle class street have been foreclosed on this summer and a third will be foreclosed on this month. And that’s typical around here. People are worried that they won’t be able to afford homeowners’ insurance. Scared people look to Uncle Sugar to help and the Dems are masters at preying on peoples’ fears.
I’m not saying now nor have I ever said that McCain will lose Florida. I have said it will be close, it is by no means a guarantee and McCain will have to work for it. I stand by that.
Are you saying the state polls for McCain’s bounce will lag behind national numbers?
Are you saying the state polls for McCain’s bounce will lag behind national numbers?
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