I don’t want primarily a contrarian view as I want an accurate view. Explain all this accurately. If we are up 1-3 nationally how are we up 7 in FL which is par for national and down 3 in Colorado which is above par for national? Don’t tell me Obama’s taken CO 5-6 points off par because he made a speech in front of styrofoam columns. The pre-conv polls had McCain UP in Colorado. As for FL, we are not up 1-3 national and tied in a state where the GOP had over a half a million vote spread last time and we won easily even in 2006. LOOK AT THE FAV NUMBERS. Something’s amiss. I’m not making excuses for McCain. SOMETHING’S AMISS.
Obviously I meant 7 in Ohio.
“SOMETHING’S AMISS”
4.5% margin of error...that is huge.
According to this Ohio result Gallup daily must be the most accurate. LOOK:
Gallup (Nat): McCain 49 / Obama 44
Ohio (Ras): McCain 51 / Obama 44
2004:
National: Bush 51 / Kerry 49
Ohio: Bush 51 / Kerry 48
2000:
National: Bush 48 / Gore 48
Ohio: Bush 50 / Gore 47
1996:
National: Clinton 49 / Dole 41
Ohio: Clinton 47 / Dole 41
1992:
National: Clinton 43 / Bush 38
Ohio: Clinton 40 / Bush 38
1988:
National: Bush 53 / Dukakis 46
Ohio: Bush 55 / Dukakis 44
1984:
National: Reagan 59 / Mondale 40
Ohio: Reagan 59 / Mondale 41
“I don’t want primarily a contrarian view as I want an accurate view.”
Where polling is concerned, if the Pubbie isn’t up and the poll was done by Rasmussen, the contrarian view is the accurate one.
If these polls had McCain up everywhere, Ras would be a polling god. But he’s not, so everybody blames the pollster instead of the electorate. After all, their Aunt Sally’s hairdresser’s cousin’s roommate’s best friend’s dog groomer, who ALWAYS votes Democrat, is voting for McCain this time. So there.
I come on these threads for the entertainment.