Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
500 voters is a very small sample size, even for state by state voting. Also, a weekend and Sunday poll.
Watch the trends folks. Every poll is moving towards McCain/Palin big time the last few days.
Florida will NOT go for Obama. Neither will Ohio. And now PA and MI are looking possible for McCain.
To me, I think who voters will pick Nov 4th comes down to this. When they are in the voting booth, and have to finally pull that lever.....
Do I go with the candidate that has experience, especially foreign policy credentials.
Or do I go with the “new guy” who talks a good game, talks about change, but doesn’t have any experience.
In the end, the majority of the voters will vote McCain for experience alone. And Palin will pull in a ton of crossover voters and Reagan democrats.
Just look at the ABC polls which shows a 20% swing of white female voters. How many millions of votes is that? Let me tell you...
122 million people voted in 2004
41% of the votes were cast by white women (50 million)
20% of 50 million = 10 million votes
So according to the ABC poll, McCain experienced a 10 million vote swing among a single demographic.
That is HUGE, considering Bush won in 2004 by less than 4 million votes.
I’d much rather be in McCain position today, than Obama’s.
Wouldn’t you?
Obama has a colorado firewall strategy.
According to this Ohio result Gallup daily must be the most accurate. LOOK:
Gallup (Nat): McCain 49 / Obama 44
Ohio (Ras): McCain 51 / Obama 44
2004:
National: Bush 51 / Kerry 49
Ohio: Bush 51 / Kerry 48
2000:
National: Bush 48 / Gore 48
Ohio: Bush 50 / Gore 47
1996:
National: Clinton 49 / Dole 41
Ohio: Clinton 47 / Dole 41
1992:
National: Clinton 43 / Bush 38
Ohio: Clinton 40 / Bush 38
1988:
National: Bush 53 / Dukakis 46
Ohio: Bush 55 / Dukakis 44
1984:
National: Reagan 59 / Mondale 40
Ohio: Reagan 59 / Mondale 41
Lou Dobbs did a piece on voter fraud this evening and we should be very afraid of what ACORN is doing. Why we continue to avoid a national I.D. is beyond me. We could very well lose this election because of fraud.
New Mexico is the weak link. The polls could change due to McCain’s bump, but up till now Obama’s been winning NM pretty consistently.
If Obama wins IA, NM and CO plus the usual blue suspects, McCain has to win FL, OH, VA, NV, NH and either PA or MI to avoid a 269-269 tie, which would be decided by the House of Representatives, with each state’s delegation getting one vote. IOW, tie goes to Obama.
McCain really needs to pick off CO.
“Did they poll only in the Denver/Boulder metro area?”
Liberals have been moving into CO from CA for years. They’re in the process of ruining my native state.
I never implied you were a liar.
Now you see her now you don’t.
First off I do not see FL, OH, VA, and NV as any GREAT challenge. Clearly we need to start ads in FL but that’s neither here nor there. IF IF IF, IF Obama does this. When does it become if he DOESN’T. Let’s be honest if HE doesn’t he IS toast.
Keep an eye on Wisconsin. Last Rasmussen polls shows Barry’s 11-point lead in Wisconsin is now down to four.
Florida will go McCain.
Demographically, I think you are right. Ohio pretty much is a snapshot of overall US voters. Good analysis.
State polls lag; we know that.
Lets see where we are 2 weeks from now. If they drops back to the same old “daily tie”, they could be trouble. Or will this show a true race change?
Look at the trend line the last 2 months.
June through mid-July - Obama basically held a 3-5 point lead.
Right after the European trip, the race changed.
McCain slowly, but steadily, closed the gap over the next 5-6 weeks.
Right before the convention, McCain was tied or slightly ahead in most of the national polls. Also, most the battleground state polls were moving in McCains favor.
Obama got a 4-5 point bounce during the convention.
McCain is getting a 6-8 point bounce.
Trend is in McCain’s favor.
Each day, Obama looks more desparate. Stammering, stuttering, and making more gaffes.
Biden’s photo should be put on a milk carton. He is MIA.
Watch the stump speeches for McCain and Palin since last Friday. Very crisp, clear, and right on.
Obama is hanging on the ropes. McCain and Palin are trying to put him on the canvas. The 10 count won’t happen until Nov 4th, but Obama may be out of this race within the week, if he doesn’t turn it around.
McCain ought to announce Guiliani as his next AG before the general election.
This poll has McCain up in CO:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077644/posts
This was posted here today.
??
Same here in the Phoenix area. We are under liberal invasion from the midwest, northeast and CA, and not to mention illegals from the south !
How can a Gov change the law allowing felons to vote?
Different samples sizes mean different margins of error. Ras said in the discussion he is going to increase his sample sizes and reduce MoEs very soon.
And favorability ratings are great, but don’t always translate into votes.
The wow is PA. If PA goes to McCain it is going to be an early night.
> Are you saying the state polls for McCain’s bounce will lag behind national numbers? <
Although they probably do lag, that isn’t quite the point I was trying to make.
What I meant was that Rasmussen’s polls — both local and national — would seem inevitably to lag behind the “true” national numbers whenever there’s a big shift in party identification.
So if the recent upsurge in ‘Pub enthusiasm translates into a significant shift of voters’ self-identification from “independent” to “Republican,” then any Rasmussen poll (whether state or national) will understate — in the short run — the magnitude of the likely increase in ‘Pub votes.
[It might be interesting to state the argument in the form of mathematical equations, but I don’t even know how to generate the Greek alphabet in HTML! Maybe there’s a mathematical statitician who can model the phenomenon properly!]
Tell me about it. I like our favorable numbers there.
I certainly hope so.
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