Posted on 09/08/2008 10:49:28 AM PDT by icwhatudo
Raleigh, N.C. – On the heels of a successful Republican convention Barack Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to just a single point. He has a 47-46 advantage over John McCain.
The selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican Vice Presidential candidate appears to be a hit with Michigan voters. 45% of respondents say they are more likely to vote for McCain because of his running mate selection, while just 30% say Joe Biden joining the Democratic ticket makes them more likely to vote for Barack Obama.
---snip----
PPP surveyed 1,147 likely voters on September 6th and 7th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
That's wishful thinking. I think the GOP will ultimately take CO, but it's still in play. I feel the same about FL. PA? I have my doubts, but either way it's in play and is no way solid for McCain.
Palin/McCain is going to win hockey-mom Macomb County. Big. I was there - they are nuts over her (ahem, them). Stuck up Oakland County establishment pubs and Detroit/Lansing/Flint rats will make it close. Outstate is all red all the time. Grand Rapids is only big town going for McCain. Got to overcome the 106% dem vote in Detroit. Pontiac is a ghost town now - most survivors wandering around are illiterate even if you bussed them to the next voting booth. Michigan is toss up but it certainly is not a slam dunk for zerO.
1% is not a lead, it’s a “dead heat” as far as polls go.
That’s one of many things I get so tired of with the media, how they can breathlessly treat 1 or 2 percentage points in a poll with an error margin estimated at 3 or 4% as significant.
That's easy. Detroit, auto-unions, state-employee's unions, and teacher's unions in any order you like.
She’ll smoke a cuban cigar and bang on a conga like Bill on Election night, watching all the states go red.
As I remember, WI and PA were closer than OH in 2004, but you would have never known it from the media. MI was almost as close as OH. Of course NH was also closer than OH.
I'd take that a step farther and say that it's more like a dagger in the political heart of the democrat party, of which Obama is the titular head of.
There are several threads of this poll. Let’s NOT ping it. It’s a dem poll and there will be plenty more battleground polls coming soon enough.
Who is running that ad and how long? I want to give.
If McCain wins all of the states President Bush won in 2004 (including OH, FL, CO, NV, IA and NM) he will win 284 electoral votes and thus win with 14 EVs to spare. If McCain wins all of the 2004 Bush states save for IA and NM, he still wins with 272 EVs. But if McCain picks off MI and PA, which gave President Bush 48% in 2004 and which have demographics that strongly disfavor Obama, then John McCain will likely win with close to 350 electoral votes.
I want better state pollers (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, Fox) before I start getting too excited about MI or PA.
Thanks for the ping!
Rasmussen battlegrounds are coming out at 6 PM.
I expect a lot of crossover vote, mostly from seniors.
Obama needs Michigan to win. McCain can eke out a victory without it if he can nail FL, VA, CO and some of the other swings. Obama losing MI would be a disaster for him.
Michigan usually goes democrat BUT I’m not sure this time. Detroit of course will, but much of the rest of the state is no doubt less enamored of Barak...especially with the Detroit mayor connection. It’ll be close, but I think McCain has a chance here.
Mountain states are solid for McCain/Palin now, as are the major battleground states of last election: PA & FL.SHOOT - I'm sorry about my saying PA as the battleground that is now solid - I meant to write "OH" - my major error... In my dreams PA is solid, but I don't think that is true yet. However, it IS true that snObama's team is quite concerned about that state where those small town people cling bitterly to their guns and religion. Else, why did they have their whole team there over the weekend? Their polling guides their itineraries, make no mistake about that.That's wishful thinking. I think the GOP will ultimately take CO, but it's still in play. I feel the same about FL. PA? I have my doubts, but either way it's in play and is no way solid for McCain.
I hate when I miss that kind of error but I'm glad you pointed it out. I DO stand by the rest of the post, but we won't really know until the next polls in the states, though this Thurs/Fri polls of the US will provide strong guidance. Get back to me then. (I don't put any real stock in today's)
Massachusetts is one of the most lily White states and yet it is most reliably Democratic.
I believe that McCain may actually win more votes than Obama and lose Michigan because of the Detroit Party Machine.
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