Hurricane Ike Live Thread

NOAA/NHC ^ | 7 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ike is the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2008 hurricane season to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast states.

Reports from Turks & Caicos Islands describe 80 per cent of homes damaged or destroyed. On Sunday, Hurricane Ike's position just north of Hispanola was hampering relief efforts for devastation incurred by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. The death toll in Haiti from Gustav reached 200 people.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist held a press conference Sunday morning shortly after a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida Keys.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data:

Florida & Eastern Gulf of Mexico

Western Gulf of Mexico

West Caribbean

Forecast Models

South FL Radar Loop
FL Keys Radar Loop
Cuba Radar Warning: site gets overloaded
FL Long Range Radar Image

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site--scroll down for Ike

KeyNews.com Key West News
Miami Herald
NOLA.com
KPLC-tv Lake Charles News
WEAR-tv Pensacola FL
TBO.com Tampa Bay Online
KHOU Houston
WKRG-tv Mobile-Pensacola

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[abb]

Wunderground’s computer models.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

[AFPhys]

Wasn't it two days ago that FL had people leaving and boarding up? Two days ago, many of the models had Ike curling up the East coast. asdf

Look at this:

Only two days ago, NHC had this dead center into the FL Everglades! (the 00Z 9/05 NHC official track)

Sorry - I don't see that they deserve the kudos you give them. They are doing good at predicting the next 1-2 days track, but that is as well as they've done with Ike.

[Sam Cree]

"I noticed with Fray, Hanna and Gustav just how good the NHC is getting at predicting the path of big hurricanes. I used to joke that the one thing I know for sure is that 3 days out, where ever the NHC says it’s going is safe from the hurricane. lol, Not any more, I am very impressed with thier skill this season."

Well, just the day before yesterday, they had Miami taking a direct hit from Ike as a category 4; now Miami is apparently in the clear, while Cuba and then the Gulf coast are looking to be hit. For about 5 days now, every forecast update has moved the track a little to the right. It's almost as if there has been a man out there slowly swinging a rifle across a crowd who is just waiting to see at whom he will take final aim.

[FReepaholic]

Here's a neat site:

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

[Sam Cree]

“On the previous thread someone said that the track is the same as the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, the last one to run the length of Cuba.”

Scary thought, LCS. How are you doing, btw?

[AFPhys]

Oh, c’mon, NN - hurricane season gives you a solid reason to pull all-nighters!

[NautiNurse]

Link to Stormpulse is at the top of the thread.

:o)

[PERKY2004]

As always, thanks for starting/updating threads like these. Watching and praying here ....

Molly in California

[NautiNurse]

Thanks.

[FlyVet]

I’m glad it’s not headed for N.O. any more, but now there are a ton of wells and refineries in its path.

[usconservative]

If Ike continues W movement, Gitmo will not get the full force of the eyewall.

Gee, I sure hope the ISLAMIC TERRORISTS we are holding in Gitmo are alright! (/sarcasm)

Hand the filthy SOB's some soap on a rope and a washrag when it passes through .....

[usconservative]

If Ike continues W movement, Gitmo will not get the full force of the eyewall.

Gee, I sure hope the ISLAMIC TERRORISTS we are holding in Gitmo are alright! (/sarcasm)

Hand the filthy SOB's some soap on a rope and a washrag when it passes through .....

[usconservative]

Sorry about that double post. I’m getting “Webserver cannot display page” errors and thought it didn’t post the first time.

[AFPhys]

Not only is Houston in play, the models have had nearly every spot from North Carolina down to FL across to S.Texas in play - I said yesterday I wouldn’t be surprised to see this eventually hit Guatemala, even. That continues to seem exceedingly unlikely, but with each passing day becomes more plausible.

Until the turn north actually becomes clear, Ike reminds me of Wayne Gretzky handling the puck crossing in front of the net all alone - when is he going to let fly with his shot? There’s no telling. Until the shot comes, it is going to be tough to call this sucker.

Historically, none of the Sep. tracks have been even similar to Ike. Not a one of those plotted now “within 500mi of this position” have tracked WSW as this has, and only one has ever tracked W.

I’ve got a feeling (no knowledge, prescience, etc.) that this sucker is going to break north hard and into AL/FL panhandle. Only CLP5 has it doing that, though. In fact none of the other models really have it breaking sharply north ever, but rather drive it NW.

That midlevel ridge is holding up much longer than they were predicting it to hold up four days ago, though, and so far there’s no real physical evidence that it won’t continue to hold until Ike goes all the way west. Until Ike overcomes that, this is still like that hockey player.

[NautiNurse]

Everything from the FL Panhandle to the TX Central Gulf Coast is still in that cone of uncertainty. I wouldn’t write off any area in the GOM yet.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Hurricane season can’t end soon enough.

Only two months and three weeks left.

[AFPhys]

NOLA is not out of the sights of Ike. Far too early to have any such thoughts.

[jpsb]

I don't recall the NHC predicting landfall in fla, maybe a couple of models predicted that, but the NHC always had Ike going south of fla. At least that is my recollection.

[jpsb]

NOLA is very much in play!

[AFPhys]

The NHC’s official “centerline” of their “uncertainty cone” is the gray line in that graphic of post#42. Look at the Sep.5,00Zulu gray track. Compare these all to the black “Actual” track. The models do OK for a day or two, but then there’s no telling. The GFDL as been doing best with Ike, apparently it has respected this ridge the most, but the real question now is when that respect will be overdone.