[jpsb]

I don't recall the NHC predicting landfall in fla, maybe a couple of models predicted that, but the NHC always had Ike going south of fla. At least that is my recollection.

[AFPhys]

The NHC’s official “centerline” of their “uncertainty cone” is the gray line in that graphic of post#42. Look at the Sep.5,00Zulu gray track. Compare these all to the black “Actual” track. The models do OK for a day or two, but then there’s no telling. The GFDL as been doing best with Ike, apparently it has respected this ridge the most, but the real question now is when that respect will be overdone.