Posted on 09/07/2008 8:37:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ike is the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2008 hurricane season to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast states.
Reports from Turks & Caicos Islands describe 80 per cent of homes damaged or destroyed. On Sunday, Hurricane Ike's position just north of Hispanola was hampering relief efforts for devastation incurred by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. The death toll in Haiti from Gustav reached 200 people.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist held a press conference Sunday morning shortly after a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida Keys.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data:
Florida & Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Western Gulf of Mexico
West Caribbean
South FL Radar Loop
FL Keys Radar Loop
Cuba Radar Warning: site gets overloaded
FL Long Range Radar Image
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Additional Resources:
Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site--scroll down for Ike
KeyNews.com Key West News
Miami Herald
NOLA.com
KPLC-tv Lake Charles News
WEAR-tv Pensacola FL
TBO.com Tampa Bay Online
KHOU Houston
WKRG-tv Mobile-Pensacola
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Besides the usual loop sites that get posted I am using Google Earth with the “Weather tools from the Google Earth blog”. Haven’t really decided if the whole thing is a novelty or not but sure makes pretty displays. I am having trouble with some of the options resetting themselves at random intervals (from my point of view).
we have contact...
Initial motion is westward or 270/11. No significant changes have been made to the track forecast or to the forecast reasoning. The steering current associated with a deep-layer ridge to the north and northeast of Ike is expected to cause the track to gradually Bend toward the west-northwest over the next day or two...and the track models are fairly well clustered on a track along much of Cuba. Later in the forecast period...after Ike is predicted to move into the Gulf of Mexico...some of the dynamical models show a weakness in the ridge that could turn the hurricane more northward. However a number of models do not show much of a weakness or a turn. Suffice to say that it is simply too early to say what portion of the Gulf Coast will ultimately be affected by Ike
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 08/0300z 21.1n 75.8w 105 kt 12hr VT 08/1200z 21.4n 77.6w 90 kt...inland 24hr VT 09/0000z 22.1n 79.9w 80 kt...inland 36hr VT 09/1200z 22.8n 81.7w 70 kt...inland 48hr VT 10/0000z 23.6n 83.5w 80 kt...over water 72hr VT 11/0000z 25.0n 86.4w 90 kt 96hr VT 12/0000z 26.5n 89.0w 100 kt 120hr VT 13/0000z 28.0n 92.0w 100 kt
$$
forecaster Pasch
Google’s good once the storm is upon you. WU’s GoogleEarth Wundermap (new!))lol is neat.
Apparently the euro puts Ike in at Houston.
For those of us non-hurricane experts ...
What’s the current forecasting say with regard to when Ike will hit the US coast?
What’s the current forecasting say with regard to WHERE Ike will hit the US coast?
Was Ike a Cat 3 when it hit the Cuban coastline?
(Answers from anyone would be appreciated!)
Molly in California (praying, as always)
Who knows what it will look like come dawn? Little late in NY isn’t it? I’m in IL and am about ready to turn in. Hard to quit reading the news though...
The official intensity forecast shows less weakening than indicated by the decay SHIPS model...to allow for the possibility of the center emerging over water sooner than expected.
As of 11pm WFTV’s Tom Terry in Orlando says the latest cone of uncertainty is as far West as Corpus Christi, TX to as far E. as Mobile, Alabama. With the hurricane hitting Cuba, the outer bands will be dispersed our direction in Florida and we could get a few outer bands starting tomorrow. He said the high pressure is our guardian in Florida and will interact with the low pressure from the hurricane to give us some wind coming from the east coast starting tomorrow. (approx 30 mph) and increasing rain Tues., Wed. and Thurs. here in Fla.. (60%) By 8 pm Fri the storm is a 115mph CAT 3 somewhere in the central GOM. He says the cold front in the TX area will probably not have much impact on where it goes, but it may slow it down a bit. They are just unsure where it is going to go right now. The Keys should begin getting some winds tomorrow.
The eye does seem to be making a beeline across that “narrow, pinched” part of eastern Cuba.
It was just a matter of time.
This really isn’t going to be hitting around a full moon, is it?
Sadly it looks like it.
Bump to follow closely.
I am used to reading weather maps for tornadoes - generally fast moving fronts that play out in a few hours or a day. When you start looking out 3 to 5 days, I am amazed that they come close.
2008 September 13, 8 hrs CT
Thanks again. Bookmarked.
“Something for everyone here but especially Galveston? “
~~~
Sure looks that way,,,:
WU : 8 PM Fri. track,,,
I see that NOAA moved the forecast-points to match the eye,
Again!,,,;0)
The next one shows IKE turning more to the N. earlier,,,
Maybe not as much time over land...
Last week, Hurricane GooseStep (Gustav) skirted us here
in the Dallas, TX area ... giving us overcast skies, cooler
temperatures and a big gusty wind for a day or two.
This one looks to be heading this way too maybe. Hope it
doesn’t live up to it’s potential Bad Boyness.
Brings a whole new meaning to the “I like Ike” phrase
from the 50’s, huh??
Anywhoo ...
Here is the latest from The Dallas Mourning Spews on Ike:
Excerpt:
Forecasts show Ike skirting Key West early Tuesday on a trek to the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, slowly strengthening to perhaps Category 3 strength on its way to a landfall late in the week somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and the Texas coast.
And once again, New Orleans — still recovering from the weaker-than-expected Gustav — is squarely in the crosshairs.
In Key West, evacuation orders became mandatory Sunday for tourists and the approximately 25,000 residents alike, but traffic off the lone highway from the island was steady rather than jammed.
Mike Tilson, 24, was preparing to ride Ike out in his houseboat, only planning to evacuate if the storm takes a sudden turn to the north.
“I got tarps and champagne,” he said as he pushed a wheelbarrow of supplies including Heineken beer, ice and a loaf of bread down the dock.
“It’s just a good party. I’ll stay.”
At 8 p.m. EDT Sunday, Ike was a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds near 120 mph, located about 30 miles east of Punto de Sama on eastern Cuba’s coast, and moving west at 14 mph. It was forecast to track over Cuba, re-emerging over the island’s western coast Tuesday morning about 100 miles south of Key West as a Category 1.
Ike was a dangerous Category 4 hurricane packing 135-mph winds a day earlier, but the National Hurricane Center in Miami said it had weakened “a little” in recent hours. Still it was a fierce storm: hurricane force winds stretched up to 60 miles from the eye and tropical force winds nearly 145 miles outward.
President Bush declared a state of emergency for Florida because of Ike on Sunday and ordered federal money to supplement state and local response efforts.
Key West Mayor Morgan McPherson said 15,000 tourists had already evacuated the region, and the Key West airport was set to close at 7 p.m. Sunday.
McPherson warned that anyone who thinks staying through a major hurricane is “champagne time” hasn’t thought it through clearly. He said emergency vehicles would be pulled off the road if the area gets tropical storm force winds.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
