2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, September 1, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 293 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 255.23 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[FlingWingFlyer]

I guess it’s not looking good for the good guys. The idiots seem to have taken the “hope” thing, hook, line and sinker.
Oh well, America USED to be a great country.

[Momaw Nadon]

If McCain keeps the states he has, and wins Ohio and Colorado, he wins the Election.

Both states are less than 3% away from 50%.

[comebacknewt]

There has actually been some nice movement towards McCain recently. If he can flip Ohio and Colorado and keep everything else he currently has, he wins.

Obama is the favorite right now and should be. He has a lot of built in advantages this election cycle. However, if we put on a good convention and keep running a strong campaign, we are well within striking distance of beating him come November.

[BenLurkin]

Ohio and Wisconsin

[Keith]

relax...I woke up Friday morning and Romney was 80% to be McCain’s veep...it’s all a big guess...

[Koblenz]

It's going to come down to the band of states: PA-OH-MI-WI-MN and to the three western states: CO-NV-NM. NH may also be in play.

If McCain can win PA and OH, the math gets very difficult for Obama. If McCain wins either one, he's close, but needs something else, like NH or CO.

[Seaplaner]

I think that the debates will have a greater-than-usual influence on this election.

There could be much (undecided) interest in Sarah, and how she scorches the serial plagiarist (who graduated in the upper half of his class with 3 degrees and has all those moot court awards to his alleged "credit".

[Son House]

Yeah, I hate to be skeptical about the ‘projection’, but I plan to vote and ruin the Democrat Utopia reguardless

[comebacknewt]

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Palin pick has fired up the GOP base. All the states McCain needs to win are states with sizable GOP bases.

She may cost us some votes in New Jersey, New York, and California. If she balances those losses out by adding votes in Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado, we come out way ahead electorally.

[JohnEBoy]

This isn’t bad. Only Ohio and Colorado with 29 votes have to come over to McCain/Palin and they win with 274 votes. I believe it will actually be a 300 plus McCain win.

[Ingtar]

Impressive. The week of the Dim convention is not usually a place where the Republican makes up some ground.

[Thane_Banquo]

I am also skeptical that Obama has Pennsylvania all locked up when Todd Palin is a member of the United Steelworkers’ Union.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

I, and many others, are working hard for McCain/Palin in Wisconsin.

However, we do have a lot of voter fraud in Milwaukee and Dane Counties...as well as counties that border IL and MN.

But, we’ll do our best. :)

[Momaw Nadon]

The TREND is our friend:

[cincinnati65]

I think it comes down to Ohio. Do some research and look at the last time Colorado went Democrat in the Presidential Election. Clinton in ‘92 (but not ‘96), Johnson in ‘68. For goodness sakes, CO went for Bob Dole in ‘96 and Richard Nixon against John Kennedy in ‘60!!!!!!

[Verginius Rufus]

A week ago they had Obama with 311 electoral votes—Nevada and Virginia have been shifted to McCain’s side since then.