She may cost us some votes in New Jersey, New York, and California. If she balances those losses out by adding votes in Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado, we come out way ahead electorally.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Palin pick has fired up the GOP base.
***Also, Intrade leads the polls on some issues and lags the polls on other items. It’s safe to say that in this area, Intrade lags the polls because Intraders were caught by surprise by the Palin pick for VP.
In addition, most Intraders are liberals. There’s a built-in bias of wishful thinking within each political contract that reflects this. For instance, Al Gore was still trading above $5 until recently and Hillary Clinton is still above $1 to win the presidency. Whoever can quantify this built-in bias will have a good arbitrage opportunity at Intrade.
Couldn't find a "welcome" thread, so I figured I would jump in where I saw the chance.