"The machine politician selected a poltical hack.
The airforce pilot selected a wingman."
Posted on 08/31/2008 11:45:54 AM PDT by KavMan
Its a Gallup poll that’s how. Pure fiction.
The big Obama sample was from Wednesday, which first showed up in Thursday’s rolling average, and should have fallen off by now. I thought today’s rolling average would show O +4 at best. Either (1) O had a good day yesterday, (2) Gallup is massaging the numbers, or (3) I should stop trying to interpret these things because I don’t know what I’m doing. The most likely answer is (3).
...
*we’ve got THEM running scared and I’m happy! :)
Excellent!
Strickland did not raise taxes because he stole the tobacco money instead.
The tobacco money was a 20 year revenue stream of 400 million a year and Strickland took “the lump sum” payment of 6 billion instead. It is like cash vs. annuity payment for lotto winnings.
But that trick only works once. Let’s see what happens from here.
Thank you! :-) I’m so happy about her running! LOL
After looking into this, the poll reliabilty is totally shot and useless. It’s hard for me to figure out exactly after a few years considering the convoluted methodology and the rotating day formula. I gave it a quick shot on scrap paper and don’t think I was too far off when I came up with a +/- number almost twice Gallups. i am confident it is still tied or within a point either way but wouldn’t say this with certainty.
Definitely closer than indicated as is usually the case nowadays and right up until election day it will be back and forth. I predict that it will stay this way right up until the final week when it becomes time to try to demoralize the right immediately before the 4th by showing a last day drop of 4-5% in favor of “The Messiah”.
They might even slip in a Barack Rises from the Dead headline just to fit their perverse and twisted views.
Methinks the lady, Barack Saddam 0bama doth pay too much for this very temporary bounce. Gallup in the tank and will have to adjust the #’s to try to make up for the overinflated # from his Marxist speech night to drop off.
If they don’t, team M/P is going to look like it got a HUGE bouce since the speech and VP pick were made on back to back days. We all know that this is a no-no when it comes to modern day affirmative action reporting.
It’s easy to tell who is on the up and up and who is not with these polls.
I was going to keep tabs on these asses and call them out when they oversampled certain demo’s, didn’t use at least 1,000 “likely” voters, used robo dialing, had phrasing and question problems, data processing errors, low total of “likely’s” etc.....inconsistent and flawed methodology.
What turned me off when in school was learning of the abilty to sway results through respondent conditioning and negative/positive word association. People are just as predictable as good old Pavlov’s dogs and it’s a tried and true technique to psychologically sway the respondent.
If you ask me it’s half-hearted junk science which can provide a baseline to more or less make an educated guess and identify trends. You are simply arriving at the hypothesis and never actually being objective or exact enough to prove it.
I never thought of it before but it’s just like the “concensus” used to “prove” that the Global Warming trend is man made. This wonderful device that men have made to meet politically desired results should be given a name like “pseudo science”, “neo science” or last but not least “LAD Science”...Liberal Agenda Driven.
The worst are those taken by colleges since quite often late night partying, lackadaisical, lady-chasing college students are used to collect data when in fact they hand in fabricated results so they can get a grade.
I offer nothing but anecdotal evidence but I errr...uhh-hum...I have heard of this happening when at Rutgers U.
It’s all about pumping up or demoralizing a certain group of voters if the poll is weighted to meet a pre-determined or desired result.
***LAST, I would like to call attentiion to a little known precedent known as the Bradley or Wilder Effect.
I am cautiously optimistic from an analytical point of view but less certain when considering the capricious nature of people in general, but especially so with McCain. His impulses have proven to be quite accurate thus far but I have seen him prove me wrong in the past.
Kudos on Palin, I thought for sure it was Mittens or Pawlenty, both of whom the media was intent on jumping as if it were a back alley mugging.
They were initially on their heels as evidenced by the “Inexperienced” response which was absurd coming from Chicago’s version of Fat Al Sharpton.
Those two are the Laurel and Hardy of Community Organizers.... of course Beanpole Barry being the “clean and articulate” one of the duo....LOL. Damn Hair Plugs and Plagiarizing Joe!!! It still seems like a dream every time I look at my Obama bin Biden sticker :)
I can never let myself forget that no matter how much I dislike this man, we still have something in common:
Both of our wives could kick his skinny ase.
She is quite petite and doesn’t look like an angry female version of James Brown, lucky for me.
But nonetheless he is a big, whiney, victimized and emasculated *ussy that just doesn’t seem like he a REAL MAN could protect his own family.
Fuhgeddabout 350 million!...but damn, i have digressed. He’s just such a funny lil man and I can’t take him seriously....I already have a Messiah :)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
From Wiki:
The term Bradley effect or (less commonly)[1] the Wilder effect refers to an explanation advanced as the possible cause of a phenomenon which has led to frequent inaccurate voter opinion polls in many American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate.[2][3][4] Specifically, there were instances in which such elections saw the non-white candidate significantly underperform with respect to the results predicted by pre-election polls.
Oh jeez, this dramatic 2 months before the election???
Even if close, McCain is NOT going to lose any of the margin that GWB had over Kerry.
The ‘Rats had a better shot, more qualified candidate in ‘04, and polled much better than Bush. Especially at this point.
Patience FRiend. It will come down to the final stretch anyway until someone blinks and makes that critical final error.
You are shouting FIRE in a crowded theater if you are making that last statement as a result of THIS poll.
(I love trading cliche’s..idioms, etc. ;)
Denial is the most predictable of all human response.
>Even if close, McCain is NOT going to lose any of the margin that GWB had over Kerry
He CERTAINLY will - since you like capitals.
McCain would have lost to Kerry and Obama is wildly popular amoung the dems.
Get over yourself.
I’m not even looking at the polls.
Few of them are worth anything at all at this point.
Yes, let’s inflate the numbers so the Dems get cozy. That way when McCain takes it, they will be doubly disappointed.
When the conclusion is off, recheck assumptions.
I have to think 54-36 was not the real Thurs number.
It’s way off the pace from earlier and later numbers.
8 to 6 pt 3-day average means that Sat was 24-18 = 6 pts off the Weds number. Weds must have been an 8-9 pt lead for O and Sat a 2-3 pt lead.
“The tobacco money was a 20 year revenue stream of 400 million a year and Strickland took “the lump sum” payment of 6 billion instead. It is like cash vs. annuity payment for lotto winnings.”
Kind of like the people who take a new home loan with a teaser rate and blow the money of a big vacation. Then they get foreclosed on 3 years later.
Tobacco money = bigger govt. The bigger govt will stick around long after the tobacco money is gone.
“2006 results and current polls not withstanding, FReepers are starting to sense a shift in the wind. It started with Obama’s lukewarm Grand Tour bounce and his disastrous showing at the Shadowbrook interview. It continued with the anti-hope-and-change selection of Joe Biden for VP and the seething rage this created among Hillary supporters and puzzlement among young voters.”
There is a shift, but its a shift from certain loss we-are-screwed, to 50/50 we have a chance if-we-make-the-effort.
Let us not underestminate the challange here. Billionaire liberal money for Obama, a leftwing MSM bias, persistent overhang of negativity that’s only now clearing.
Not to mention the inconvenient fact that Pelosi leads the House and Reid the Senate and we dont have many pundit predicting we’ll win them back.
“Iraq is no longer a first tier issue. The economy, cost cutting, and energy are. Sarah Palin could prove to be a very strong asset in all of these areas.”
That’s what we have on our side. THE ISSUES. We are right and they are wrong and the people are on the side of common sense.
WE HAVE TO DO ALL WE CAN TO HELP WIN OR IT WILL BE IN VAIN.
ok, thanks for the hard evidence to back up your claim slick bill. We can disagree and I will play the “i told you so card”.
i made sure there were no capitals for you mr spell checker.
talk about self-important....lol. reads like someone needs more coffee.
Yes
Now that Obama has regained a slight lead the MSM is reporting polls again.
Did I pass ?
This election is going to be a blowout. Palin will help in cinching the deal. The undecideds will be tremendously affected by her nomination - the the GOP convention - and then the debates.
I personally think that the debates are going to be the final turning point. People will get to compare a plain-spoken elder of the GOP, complete with honor and dignity, to some yakking Liberal Con Law prof who seems to have an answer for everything but who apparently knows the value of nothing.The debates will truly be McCain’s momentous event during this election. After that, the man we need to be President will be apparent to everyone (except the crazy die-hards).
I trust the American people. And I can feel a landslide coming.
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