Posted on 08/31/2008 11:45:54 AM PDT by KavMan
, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 28-30, including two days of interviewing since the close of the Democratic National Convention, finds Barack Obama with a six percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential contest, 48% to 42%.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
comebacknewt has these estimates from Gallup and looks like it makes sense so how the F is Obama still up by 6?
He would have to be up by 10 in todays polling.
Sun Aug 24: 45 - 45 Mon Aug 25: 45 - 45 Tue Aug 26: 46 - 44 McCain Wed Aug 27: 47 - 44 Obama Thu Aug 28: 54 - 36 Obama Fri Aug 29: 47 - 42 Obama Sat Aug 30: 47 - 44 Obama
Its Gallup.
It may show the Bill Clinton speech temporarily got the party faithful back on board. Some jumped back off after hearing the Messiah and being reminded that he is no Bill Clinton.
Sorry that chart I copy and pasted didn’t post right. Oh wells F Gallup!!!!
Sun Aug 24: 45 - 45
Mon Aug 25: 45 - 45
Tue Aug 26: 46 - 44 McCain
Wed Aug 27: 47 - 44 Obama
Thu Aug 28: 54 - 36 Obama
Fri Aug 29: 47 - 42 Obama
Sat Aug 30: 47 - 44 Obama
They must have sampled adults in line at welfare offices.
Today Gallup has it by 6 and Rasmussen by 3.
It's trending in our favor.
I call it The Barracuda Bump!
I love repeating this from other poll threads: zero bama got no bounce from his speech.
But it’s going by a 3 day rolling average, that big Thursday # came off so for Obama to still be ahead by 6, he jumped 10 points today assuming the estimates are right =P
This is EXCELLENT news.
Remember that it was 8 points yesterday and the day before. This is a 3-day tracking poll, which means that if Sunday's numbers dragged his 3-day average down 2 percentage points, it's about a 6% single day shift-- WITH the first poll after Obama's coronation day included.
I expect them to be tied in two or three more days, especially if Gustav is handled well.
And it's a registered-voter rather than likely-voter poll, which oversamples the kind of Democrats who can't manage to put down the crack pipe or bong on Election Day.
Be of good cheer, but don't get cocky. We are looking at a 40 state blow-out if we handle this properly.
-ccm
You know, there’s no doubt in my mind that had this been McCain giving an acceptance speech Thursday, with these numbers following, there would be no talk of a bounce.
No sir, they’d be talking about how he had destroyed a good amount of momentum that the previous nights’ speakers had garnered for him and that it was obviously a sign of a backlash against McCain’s message.
The damn media is so transparent...
Wait until tomorrow when the final day of their convention rolls off the polling. Then we’ll have an accurate picture.
Doug Wilder was up by 20 points in Va won by 1. People lie to pollsters. Hillary did better than the polls said.
Thhe only Pollster that seems to be close is Rassmussen.
Whats Rassmuesen say?
In your dreams. 2008 will be a repeat of 2000 and 2004 with a few, select states deciding the Electoral College.
Yup, this does make sense. This poll still includes Thursday, when the democ convention was at it’s nexus. Once Thursday and Friday drops off, watch the numbers tighten. This number isn’t that great because Obama is losing his lead despite his huge rally on thursday.
Coming out of the DEM CONVENTION...Obama/Biden should have a 10-15 point lead....they don’t...they are in trouble. They know it, their media knows it....we know it.
How in the blazes do these numbers average out to a 6 point lead? The only way I can figure is if the sample size on Aug 28 was much smaller than on Aug 29 and Aug 30.
If the sample sizes were more even, it would be closer to a 9 point lead. But maybe Gallup is downplaying this because once the next 3-day rolling average is announced for Aug 29-31, figure on that number being close to 3 points. I don't think Gallup wants to report a 6 point swing in McCain's favor in one day.
What you said! Exactly. Dead cat bounce.
Oh $hit, I might have gotten it wrong!
Gallup is still using Thursday’s # for their 3 day polling!!!! 28th to 30th
They aren’t counting today’s yet. Hmmm now I might have to take a closer look at the estimates.
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