[KavMan]

Can anyone make sense of this?

comebacknewt has these estimates from Gallup and looks like it makes sense so how the F is Obama still up by 6?

He would have to be up by 10 in todays polling.

Sun Aug 24: 45 - 45 Mon Aug 25: 45 - 45 Tue Aug 26: 46 - 44 McCain Wed Aug 27: 47 - 44 Obama Thu Aug 28: 54 - 36 Obama Fri Aug 29: 47 - 42 Obama Sat Aug 30: 47 - 44 Obama

[mylife]

Its Gallup.

[ilgipper]

It may show the Bill Clinton speech temporarily got the party faithful back on board. Some jumped back off after hearing the Messiah and being reminded that he is no Bill Clinton.

[Clint N. Suhks]

Yesterday and Friday Gallup had Obomination up by 8 and Rasmussen up by 4.

Today Gallup has it by 6 and Rasmussen by 3.

It's trending in our favor.

I call it The Barracuda Bump!

[Vision Thing]

I love repeating this from other poll threads: zero bama got no bounce from his speech.

[ccmay]

Can anyone make sense of this?

This is EXCELLENT news.

Remember that it was 8 points yesterday and the day before. This is a 3-day tracking poll, which means that if Sunday's numbers dragged his 3-day average down 2 percentage points, it's about a 6% single day shift-- WITH the first poll after Obama's coronation day included.

I expect them to be tied in two or three more days, especially if Gustav is handled well.

And it's a registered-voter rather than likely-voter poll, which oversamples the kind of Democrats who can't manage to put down the crack pipe or bong on Election Day.

Be of good cheer, but don't get cocky. We are looking at a 40 state blow-out if we handle this properly.

-ccm

[Norman Bates]

Wait until tomorrow when the final day of their convention rolls off the polling. Then we’ll have an accurate picture.

[DallasBiff]

Yup, this does make sense. This poll still includes Thursday, when the democ convention was at it’s nexus. Once Thursday and Friday drops off, watch the numbers tighten. This number isn’t that great because Obama is losing his lead despite his huge rally on thursday.

[sefarkas]

Sometimes the back-slapping FR daisy chain is a bit much. The Republicans are in big trouble in November 2008 both up and down ballot. Gov. Palin’s pick is a nice change from the horrible MSM management that has gone on since early 1989 when Bush-I was bamboozled in to abandoning no-new-taxes. This election will be like 2000 and 2004; won by the core that gets out more of its swing-state voters to the polls.

[topfile]

NO big deal. The DNC was mostly an emotional exercise.
Therefore, we’re simply waiting for a little swing vote reasoning to kick in.

[comebacknewt]

Was hoping for a little bigger dropoff, but the trend is still in the right direction. As long as it does not reverse, or stall out, this will be extremely good news for the McCain camp.

So far, it suggests the bump was rather modest and short-lived. Lets hope it continues.

[cookcounty]

How could he be up 6 on a 3 day rolling?

"Obama Thu Aug 28: 54 - 36"

There's the entire answer right there....a huge one day bounce, which was immediately lost at the first mention of Palin.

[tomkat]

it’s bullshite

[CT]

Obama needs a genuine 10 point lead to break even with McPalin. Too many people lie to the pollsters. I now think our side will likely win in November. Not too optimistic, but the big guns that will show Obama and Biden as the empty suits that they are (with apologies to clothes hangers across the US)have not even brought their powder out.

[Paige]

Gallup is skewing this data. Zogby shows McCain two points ahead 47% to 45%.

[1035rep]

Its a Gallup poll that’s how. Pure fiction.

[Burma Jones]

The big Obama sample was from Wednesday, which first showed up in Thursday’s rolling average, and should have fallen off by now. I thought today’s rolling average would show O +4 at best. Either (1) O had a good day yesterday, (2) Gallup is massaging the numbers, or (3) I should stop trying to interpret these things because I don’t know what I’m doing. The most likely answer is (3).

[Liberty Valance]

The O'Biden bounce ...



"The machine politician selected a poltical hack.
The airforce pilot selected a wingman."

[LibertyRocks]

Sure... I can make sense of this - unlike the "Obamaites" claim the polls are heavily skewed in their favor. I look at it like this. When the race was close they could energize their activists. When Sarah Palin took the stage on Friday, things in the Obama campaign and all across the MSM and Liberal (Communist & Radical, & Terrorist) Organizations looked a bit like the following:

...

In order to calm down their nearly hysterical activists and operatives they have had to skew the poll upwards for Obama. This was also to try and create a false impression of Obama leading so that they can AGAIN claim in November when they lose (by what very well could be a landslide, I pray) - that they were "robbed", and the Republicans can somehow achieve what they've been attempting for years with no success -- to completely throw an election. (For examples - please see the Chicago Political History from which Obama springs...).

We've got the running scared, and I'm happy...

[sarasota]

Yes, let’s inflate the numbers so the Dems get cozy. That way when McCain takes it, they will be doubly disappointed.

[af_vet_1981]

Can anyone make sense of this?

Yes

Now that Obama has regained a slight lead the MSM is reporting polls again.

Did I pass ?