[CatOwner]

"We are looking at a 40 state blow-out if we handle this properly."

In your dreams. 2008 will be a repeat of 2000 and 2004 with a few, select states deciding the Electoral College.

[Blue Turtle]

Coming out of the DEM CONVENTION...Obama/Biden should have a 10-15 point lead....they don’t...they are in trouble. They know it, their media knows it....we know it.

[gswilder]

Thursday’s outlier is still on there for this 3 day rolling average (Thur/Fri/Sat). Once that drops off, it will be 2-3 on Monday on Gallup. 1-2 on Monday on Zogby.

Makes you wonder about the reliability of “snapshot/rolling” polls at this point in the race. Yea, Americans heard Bill Clinton speak, and the next day Obama got a 15 point bounce. Sorry, not buying it.

If you look historically, these polls lag somewhat. I believe in 2004, the full bounce didn’t show up until about 4-5 days AFTER each convention. This year is different, so it will be 2 weeks before I believe we settle in again. With the Palin announcement, Labor Day Weekend, Gustav, and Repub convention all hitting at once, I think there is a lot of unreliability in the polls right now.

Every poll out there has been trending McCain for about 5 weeks now (both state and national). Obama’s convention bounce was the smallest in recent memory. A week from now, I believe we will be tied in these generic national polls again. There will another churn cycle around the debates. Then some stable time, and undecideds breaking the last 10 days or so. I believe 75% of the late undecideds will go for McCain. In the end, these folks will decide to go with the experienced candidate. The other factor is that the majority of Americans do NOT want the democrats to have control of the Presidency and Congress.

[KriegerGeist]

"We are looking at a 40 state blow-out if we handle this properly."

In your dreams. 2008 will be a repeat of 2000 and 2004 with a few, select states deciding the Electoral College.

Plus, Pennsylvania, Virginia (my state) and Ohio have changed from Red to Blue in 2006. Santorum lost, Allen lost (Gilmore (R) will lose this November to Mark Warner (D) as well) North Carolina is losing it's 'Red-ness' some and there are states out west that were solid fire-engine Red that are no longer and are trending Blue (Obama).

I'm not pessimistic. Just realistic. Many northern liberals have flooded down into Virginia and North Carolina to retire or get work that is no longer in MI, MJ, NY, WI and elsewhere. They bring their liberal voting habits with them.