Posted on 08/25/2008 8:12:59 AM PDT by comebacknewt
A round of new polls by Mason-Dixon and the Denver Post, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, and the Salt Lake Tribune will give everyone something to chew on.
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On the plus side for McCain, he’s surprisingly up by four points in New Mexico (45%-41%) and seven points in Nevada (46%-39%). On the minus side for him, he’s ahead only by six points in his home state of Arizona (47%-41%), and he’s trailing Obama by three in Colorado (46%-43%), although a new Quinnipiac poll out today has McCain up one in this state (47%-46%).
(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.msnbc.msn.com ...
All in all, this is great news for McCain. Mason Dixon has traditionally been the gold standard for state polls.
Colorado still looks like it is going to be super close, but that is a dramatic improvement from early summer where Barack had a nice lead there.
This is pretty much all good news. New Mexico is a nice surprise. Nevada is good though we should be winning there anyway. Arizona is fairly liberal for a western state so 6 points is more than solid. Republicans will win Colorado, I have little doubt.
This is just all good.
It is good, and Romney will help nail down Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.
The actual numbers today don’t mean a lot. Far more important is the trend (the trend is your friend) and this is clearly in McCains favor, no matter where you choose to look.
My guess is the strategy of the libs was to get “The One” a HUGE lead in the polls with the help of their pals in the media and ride that lead to the nomination, get a further bumb there and ride in home to the election victory.
They believed if the lead was big enough the McCain campaign would simply run out of time before they could properly out the major flaws of the lib candidate. Instead it is the Obama campaign that is running out of time because they now have to frantically build a lead and have no way to do it except by lying about their candidate. They must lie because it is the truth about him that has caused all of his problems.
If McCain carries NM and NH, does he need CO-—all other things being equal (i.e., VA, OH, and FL)?
The problem is there are large electoral states that are a lock for Obama; Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and California especially.
Probably New York also.
see post #6
But that’s nothing new. Bush won without any of those states. I repeat my question, if McCain gets NM (4?) and NH (4?) to offset CO (6), doesn’t that still leave him with something like 274?
If McCain takes them both, they completely offset CO which has 9.
There you go. That was my question, and while I don’t think McCain will lose CO, the point is he has alternatives for getting to 270. Obama pretty much does not. He needs BOTH NM and CO or NH and CO or NM and NH. It’s a tougher road.
Funny thing is, MSNBC all morning only flashed the Colorado poll that had Obama up, they did not scroll the Colorado poll that had McCain up.
Was I surprised NO!!! Most of the morning they showed the Gallup USA poll that had Obam up by 3, and not the Gallup daily poll that has it tied.
NM will fall into line with the same shennanigans that got it in the D column last time. I will be absolutely shocked if it turns out any other way.
I personally think the state of the election today is a repeat of the Bush - Gore results from 2000. McCain wins NH. Obama takes NM and IA.
All of this is obviously subject to change, but if it were to hold, the final total in the Electoral College would be:
McCain - 278
Obama - 260
Obviously, McCain will carry Arizona.
When McCain was up in the USA Today poll, but behind in the dailies, they did just the opposite. They are too predictable.
I completely agree that McCain will carry Colorado in the general election. It may take a little while for McCain to pull ahead in the polls there. With the Democrat convention in Denver, Obama will be getting a lot of local attention. I think that Obama gets a bigger and more enduring convention bounce in Colorado than elsewhere. Ultimately, however, Colorado will again go red but we might have to be patient.
Bush carried NM in 2004 by a slim margin.
Thanks for that correction, I had recalled that NM was called for Kerry (but close) on election night then there was some fracas about questionable voting around ABQ but did not remember Bush ending up with the win.
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