Posted on 08/25/2008 7:23:14 AM PDT by library user
Denver On the eve of the Democratic National Convention, in a downtown high-rise conference room lined with two-way mirrors, 21 undecided Colorado voters sit trying to decide whether they have more doubts and reservations about Barack Obama or John McCain. Its not easy.
The group has been convened by the pollster Frank Luntz, who usually does this sort of thing on live television but has instead organized the session at the behest of the American Association of Retired Persons and the related activist group Divided We Fail. As the voters answer Luntzs rapid-fire questions, a small group of reporters watches from the other side of the mirrors. And after two hours of talking, and a pre-convention buildup here in Denver in which Democrats have received lots of positive coverage in this critical swing state, youd have to say that the news is pretty good for McCain. The undecideds have plenty of problems with him, and they cant stand George W. Bush, but they seem more deeply concerned about Obama than McCain, because they have still not answered the threshold question about the Democratic nominee: Is he ready?
At first, the atmosphere seems quite friendly for Obama. Luntz asks the Democrats in the room to raise their hands. Four people do so. Then he asks for the independents; about 15 hands go up. And then he asks for Republicans to raise their hands. There are none.
That in itself seems to show a pretty significant change. In information sheets the voters had filled out beforehand, twelve said they voted for George W. Bush in 2004, while just five voted for John Kerry. (Four either voted for other candidates or did not vote at all.) What that suggests is that people who voted for Bush just four years ago have no interest in being seen as Republicans now surely not good news for McCain.
But the undecideds seem willing to separate their dislike of the parties, and the Republican party in particular, from the presidential candidates themselves. When Luntz goes around the room, pressing each person to give his or her best one-word description of Obama, these are some of the answers:
Scary.
New.
Terrifying.
Charismatic.
Unknown.
Innovative.
Inexperienced.
Change.
Hopeful.
Smooth.
Unaffordable.
Apocalypse.
Yes, one guy did say apocalypse, which suggests he might not be all that undecided. (On the other side, a couple of people say theyve recently made up their minds to vote for Obama.) Then Luntz turns the one-word question to McCain:
Scary.
Dependable.
Strong.
Patriot.
Veteran.
Bush Two.
Older generation.
Experienced.
Honest.
Older.
Integrity.
Repeat.
At first, Luntz thinks the man who had said repeat had in fact said creepy, which seems a little odd. But he had actually said repeat, as in McCain would be a repeat of Bush. But listening to all the answers, the bottom line is, if you were a political consultant, and you had your choice between the voters impressions of Obama or McCain, you would choose McCain.
And then there are the issues. Before the session, Luntz asked group members to name the things that mattered most to them in a presidential candidate. He came up with a long list and asked them to pick eight. And the number-one concern, which made it onto the lists of 17 people, is: Ending wasteful Washington spending and balancing the federal government, which is, of course, a signature McCain issue. No other topic comes close. Next up is reducing inflation and keeping costs down, with ten votes. Ending American dependence on foreign oil gets nine votes, as does bringing accountability and honesty back to the federal government.
Could those concerns be more accurately described as Obama-friendly or McCain-friendly? Not strongly tilted either way, but certainly not tilted against the Republican. Reading the list, McCain would not be unhappy.
The undecideds also seem to be sending messages to the aficionados of hot-button issues both left and the right. For example, improving our global image and public support internationally, a favorite in Democratic circles, gets all of one vote. Holding President Bush accountable for all his mistakes and failures a huge issue among the netroots, gets two. On the other hand, putting justices on the Supreme Court who will respect the law, not rewrite it gets two votes, and pro-life on abortion gets one. (Pro-choice on abortion gets five votes.) And precisely zero voters assign great significance to addressing the issue of gay marriage.
After the voters discuss issues for a while, Luntz hands out little electronic dials and asks them to rate a series of Obama and McCain campaign commercials. First come the positive spots. One of McCains country first ads gets a rating of over 80 from the Republican leaners and about 70 from the Democratic leaders. The McCain ad describing him as the original maverick goes even higher. And an ad in which McCain argues for more oil drilling also hits 70.
Obamas ads seem a bit less effective. His highest-rated one is his first biographical ad, the one in which he claims to have moved people from welfare to work; it tops 60 percent. Other ads score a bit lower.
Then there are the negative ads. While most voters, when surveyed, say they dont like attack ads, Luntz asks the group to say which ads they find the most impactful. What follows is a bit of real-time research on the utility of negative advertising. And the winner, again, seems to be McCain.
Most people dont like the idea of McCains famous Celebrity ad. Ridiculous, says one person. Crap, says another. Really didnt like it, says a third. But most seem to think the ad had an impact, and when Luntz asks, Who thought the Celebrity ad made Obama look worse? twelve people raise their hands. When he asks, Who thought it made McCain look worse for running it? five hands go up. Advantage McCain.
Then Luntz plays Obamas ad attacking McCain on the seven houses issue. Nobody much likes it; the meters stay below 50 for both Republican and Democratic leaners. After that comes McCains response ad, the one featuring Tony Rezko. Republican meters shoot up to 80, while the Democratic meters climb slightly above 50. Asked later, people think Obamas attack ad was good, but the Rezko response raised new questions. For Barack to get money from someone else and who knows where he got that money to get his house? one woman asks. In general, says another woman, in McCains ads, the issues were a little more clear.
After a few more questions, everybody goes home. In the end, the striking thing about the undecideds is the problem theyre having translating their dislike of President Bush and the Republican party into a vote for Barack Obama. Theyre simply not there, at least not yet. The presence of McCain seems to have given them just enough reason to grant him an exemption from their deep unhappiness with the GOP. If Obama instilled more confidence, it would be no contest. But for now, it couldnt be closer.
SEE MY #17
” Obama is quite different. People don’t know him, they just know his image. Once people start to understand who and what he is, they will recoil. I think McCain will win very big. I just wish the GOP had picked a better candidate.”
I believe McCain will win because - at least in 2008 - he will have been the BEST candidate the Republicans could offer.
Now I know folks are spitting out their coffee as they read this. But consider:
McCain is doing as well as he is, precisely because he is NOT a “hard conservative” Republican; being who he is makes him more palatable to the “waving wheat” voters. Those are the so-called “undecided” and “independent” voters who never seem to be able to make their own choice, but instead waver back and forth like wheat blowing in the political winds.
These are people who might otherwise have voted against a hard-conservative Republican exactly because of their own perceptions (correct or incorrect) that he would just be “more Bush”. Because they believe themselves to be independents - and, “middle-of-the-roaders” - they are quite often taken aback by “the right”.
McCain offers them qualities that appeal to their muddy sensibilities such as his war record and long term of service in the Senate, in which he has often been characterized as “independent” - JUST LIKE THEMSELVES.
Obama, by comparison, has nothing of substance to offer - only “promises”. And sitting in the corner is that pesky reality that folks (even folks here) tend to ignore called race.
McCain provides the waving wheats who might otherwise “bond” to Obama’s song of change, but who remain wary of blacks, the option of voting for a Republican they can live with. That is, a comfortable old white guy with a good record of service to the country.
McCain wasn’t my first choice, nor my second, nor my third. I liked Fred Thompson, Tom Tancredo, and could have lived with Romney or even Huckabee.
But I daresay that NONE of them would have currently been doing as well in the polls vs. Obama.
He’s the right guy for this contest, for better or worse.
I’m voting for the old white guy.
- John
Now that would be sweet! Didnt I hear recently that old Ralph Nader was launching a campaign bid? If these two egomaniacs were to run as third party candidates, I doubt obama would even get 10% of the vote. Luscious possibilities!
I would ask them, “What if Obama the neophyte does get elected President and the Iranians finish making some nuclear bombs and start sneaking them into the U.S. and a few of them blow up Manhattan and Washington, D.C. and Obama asks them to please stop doing that...and they sneak some more into the U.S. How are you going to replace Obama when he fails to stop the nukes?”
My God, I do think that’s Denver reflected in Jones’s sunglasses!
...”I think McCain will win very big. I just wish the GOP had picked a better candidate.:...
Maybe consider this view: given the MSM-driven hate campaign against GWB and the GOP over the past 7.5 years, perhaps Mr. McCain is the only GOP candidate who would have a chance against the unholy MSM/Obama conspiracy?
Troll alert...
HIS temper?
Ever seen Biden rant and rave?
There must be some youT's on some of them 0 we gotta dig them out and comment on the obambi's white=haired old guy and his temper...
My question was rhetorical....meaning a LOT more work has to be done to educate the general public about Obama.
I agree with you...but think a LOT more needs to be done.
Are those spectacular accusations about Empress Theodora being an ex-stripper and sexual prevert true?
Ever since Rovian acolyte Mark Schmidt took over the McCain team he’s done a 180.
I can’t wait to see what they put out over the home stretch.
As other posters have pointed out, certain passages of Obama’s books-on-tape recordings of his autobiography will be a rich vein.
I think it was true that she was an ex-stripper. Don’t know about the other.
The way he lashed out at the pro-life people, calling them "liars" twice, when they merely restated what he himself said, is telling. He's very thin skinned, and Americans don't like that in a candidate.
I had read this story before, and your comparison is quite relevant.
A reincarnation perhaps?
On the eve of the Democratic National Convention, in a downtown high-rise conference room lined with two-way mirrors, 21 undecided Colorado voters sit trying to decide whether they have more doubts and reservations about Barack Obama or John McCain... The group has been convened by the pollster Frank Luntz, who usually does this sort of thing on live television but has instead organized the session at the behest of the American Association of Retired Persons and the related activist group Divided We Fail... after two hours of talking, and a pre-convention buildup here in Denver in which Democrats have received lots of positive coverage in this critical swing state, youâd have to say that the news is pretty good for McCain... At first, the atmosphere seems quite friendly for Obama. Luntz asks the Democrats in the room to raise their hands. Four people do so. Then he asks for the independents; about 15 hands go up. And then he asks for Republicans to raise their hands. There are none.AARP hires a pollster who assembles a group consisting of no Republicans? Stop the presses!!! ;')
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