Posted on 08/19/2008 10:10:46 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk
An expert from the National Autonomous University of Mexico predicted that the Earth will enter a "Little Ice Age" which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity.
Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM, showcased his theories during an international conference he led at the Centre for Applied Sciences and Technological Development. Velasco, a specialist in remote sensing systems, said that the recent rupture of the Perito Moreno glacier on the border of Chile and Argentina, unusual for having produced a full austral winter, was not due to global warming. He theorizes that the event was caused during a drought by falling water levels in the river, coupled with colder temperatures.
Dr. Velasco described as "erroneous" predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), of a gradual increase in temperature, the so-called global warming. The models and forecasts of the IPCC "are incorrect because they are based solely on mathematical models and do not include, for example, solar activity," said Velasco, who is also a specialist in predictive image processing. "The phenomenon of climate change," he added, "should include both internal and external factors. Internal would include volcanic activity,while external causes include solar activity."
"Curiously, the Sun never has been seen as a cooling agent, but as a cause of warming. It clearly has roles in both cooling and warming," he said.
At present, Velasco holds that the world is going through a transition phase of considerably diminished solar activity, "so that in two years or so, there will be the beginnings of a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years,and the immediate consequence of this" he added, "will be drought."
Analyses by the IPCC concluded that the "Little Ice Age",a cold period that lasted since the beginning of the fourteenth century until the mid-nineteenth century. was a regional phenomena or accentuation of local effects. But Velasco disagrees. He says that, "Current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of abnormal heat or cold in this timeframe," and that it must have been caused by other factors.
Highlights and Dates
According to Velasco, effects will be clearly observable within in approximately two years. However, in early July, Velasco Herrera said that satellite data indicate it is possible that this period of global cooling may have even already begun as early as 2005.
He has predicted that cooling would fully arrive within 30 or 40 years.
He’s going to be thrown under the hybrid bus
The last time the earth had a little ice age millions died from starvation and pestilence.
I know that this is the coolest summer I have seen since I moved to this area almost 10 years ago.
I think he’s saying that the activities of the sun can result in either a warming or a cooling of the atmosphere. The relationship is not direct, necessarily, but since decreased solar activity would correlate with cooling in the Earth’s atmosphere, it can be considered as a cooling agent. The term “agent” here has specific scientific meaning.
Ok, I can’t go quite as far as sweater weather, but this morning, taking the dogs out, I noticed how pleasant it was.
I live in Gainesville, Florida...we have hot and humid pegged.
My wife and I were talking about it the other day, it has been a remarkably mild summer.
Wrong. It starts in about 4 mo. and will be known as winter.
Bush’s fault.
Minority women and children hit the hardest.
Republican’s blocking legislation to resolve the crisis.
UN convenes, but needs billions more from the world’s richest nations to address the looming crisis.
Did I get it all?
Sun cycles were described back in the mid-19th century.
The current minimum is well within statistical projections.
It’s not even the longest this century.
But not according to the global warmers.
If its not out of service with mechanical failure.
That’s why I said “predict away”- he has nothing to go on to say what the Sun’s output will be next week.
I didn’t know that solar activity had anything to do with temperature. I thoiught it was the size car I drive.
The only solution of course will be a global socialist command economy.
A little translation problemo, dude. What the good Doc is saying is that "Whenna da Sun, sheesa no worka so good, we getta leetle chili maybe heare ona de Eart." ¿No entiendes?
And blame me, I translated the translator.
>>The last time the earth had a little ice age millions died from starvation and pestilence.<<
And the last time the earth was as hot as algore claims it will be, most people were serfs, not free.
So your point is that starvation and pestilence are far worse than no freedom? Don’t think so.
Next week there will be no sunspots.
On the other hand, this could go on for a few more months, or for the next 70 years.
There’s only a couple of hundred years worth of data for a star that’s over 5 billion years old.
And there are no useful theories about why the solar cycle is so variable.
So in general, I agree with you.
The significant message of the article is not global warming or global cooling. It is the fact the sun contributes to either by the point in the natural cycle of the sun’s solar activity. Please be patient and read through these links. Very technical: http://sharpgary.org/landscheidt.html Newsy, but full of dialog following the article by novices and experts: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ Other great climate links: www.climateaudit.org and www.icecap.com. One I like to lurk: www.solarcycle24.com. Read these my friend and be ignorant no more.
Now some smart young fellow from Mexico, figures it all out.
Won't be long now. Someone at Harvard will figure it all out... as soon as he/she gets back from the Cambridge Obama Rally, that is, and finds a spot for the Volvo, and finishes filling out the Gov Grant Appl to get $1.5 Million to study "The Effect of Global Warming on the Polar Bear's Sexual Development for Same Sex Attraction."
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.