Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

An economic Cassandra whose predictions are coming true
IHT ^ | 08/16/08 | Stephen Mihm

Posted on 08/19/2008 12:33:51 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster

An economic Cassandra whose predictions are coming true

By Stephen Mihm

Saturday, August 16, 2008

NEW YORK: On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession.

He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt. These developments, he said, could cripple or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

As Roubini stepped down from the lectern after his talk, the moderator of the event said, "I think perhaps we will need a stiff drink after that." People laughed - and not without reason. At the time, unemployment and inflation remained low, and the economy, while weak, was still growing, despite rising oil prices and a softening housing market.

(Excerpt) Read more at iht.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: creditcrunch; economy; roubini; subprime
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-31 last
To: M. Dodge Thomas

Either one of those wouldn’t be so bad if the word “think” were inserted somewhere in there.


21 posted on 08/19/2008 6:28:38 AM PDT by durasell (!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: durasell

Right, but they don’t own us, either.


22 posted on 08/19/2008 9:55:15 AM PDT by rlmorel (If they can call George "Dubya", we can call Barack "Hussein")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Candor7

You are saying one lone economist can by himself, solely from whole cloth, make a depression a self-fulfilling prophesy with his meager words alone? You are TOO funny!


23 posted on 08/19/2008 10:53:24 AM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: rlmorel
No, they don't own us, but they are one of our major creditors, communities in the U.S. compete all-out for new Toyota plants, and they've taken a chunk of market share from major manufacturing firms. They also own a couple of major media companies.

So while we don't feel the presence of Japan in our everyday lives, they are a major factor in the U.S. economy.

24 posted on 08/19/2008 12:42:18 PM PDT by durasell (!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free
You are TOO funny!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I have been laughing at myself all day!!!

25 posted on 08/19/2008 1:25:18 PM PDT by Candor7 (Fascism? All it takes is for good men to say nothing, (Ridicule Obama))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Candor7

I have been laughing at myself all day!!!


Don’t worry. I believe you are laughing WITH yourself and not AT yourself.


26 posted on 08/19/2008 1:27:11 PM PDT by durasell (!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: durasell

Japan is not without its own economic and social issues is the point I was making, and I would rather have ours than theirs.


27 posted on 08/19/2008 2:04:17 PM PDT by rlmorel (If they can call George "Dubya", we can call Barack "Hussein")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: rlmorel

That’s true and I agree with you.


28 posted on 08/19/2008 2:07:09 PM PDT by durasell (!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: rlmorel

“Funny how things turned out.”

Such as Toyota passing GM in worldwide auto sales.
The US becoming the world’s largest debtor nation in contrast to Japan’s creditor status.
Japan’s continued domination of consumer electronics and other targeted industries.

It’s funny.


29 posted on 08/19/2008 7:42:23 PM PDT by Pelham (Press 1 for English)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: sergeantdave

“Misery indexes are more pap spewed out by the leftist press, whose agenda is to destroy the free market and give us collectivism.”

No prize for you. The Misery Index was a Republican club created for the purpose of battering Jimmy Carter. It was the sum of the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate.


30 posted on 08/19/2008 7:49:56 PM PDT by Pelham (Press 1 for English)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Pelham

I stand by my previous statement.

I would rather be a citizen in the USA under our economy than a Japanese citizen under theirs.

Cars and consumer electronics are not the only things that drive an economy, and doing well in those does not mean the be-all and end-all of the well-being of an economy.

But I’m sure you know that.


31 posted on 08/20/2008 12:19:51 AM PDT by rlmorel (If they can call George "Dubya", we can call Barack "Hussein")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-31 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson