Posted on 08/18/2008 5:53:15 AM PDT by txzman
On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing.
In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession. He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt.
These developments, he went on, could cripple or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
~snip~
“We are in a recession, and denying it is nonsense,” he said. When Jim Nussle, the White House budget director, announced last month that the nation had “avoided a recession,” Roubini was incredulous.
For months, he has been predicting that the United States will suffer through an 18-month recession that will eventually rank as the “worst since the Great Depression.” Though he is confident that the economy will enter a technical recovery toward the end of next year, he says that job losses, corporate bankruptcies and other drags on growth will continue to take a toll for years.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Simple enough summary that we all can understand:
"The United States, Roubini went on, will likely muddle through the crisis but will emerge from it a different nation, with a different place in the world. “Once you run current-account deficits, you depend on the kindness of strangers,” he said, pausing to let out a resigned sigh. “This might be the beginning of the end of the American empire.”
1980’s recycled BS.
1999 we were all doomed. Can’t tell HOW MANY were beating the drumbeat about the mortgage and credit crunch.
By this standard there are more than a few ecconomists on FR who beat this guy’s “predictions” solid.
(for those in rio linda: WEEERRRRE DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!)
This nation has become morally bankrupt and that, more than the economics, will be the end of us, the economics is just a symptom.
Evidently, Roubini doesn't want to be bothered by unwelcome facts.
And BTW, don't depend on the kindness of strangers. It didn't work for Blanche, and it won't work for the U.S.A.
Don't depend on the opinions of those who don't want to be bothered by facts either.
All the Proof anyone should need to see just how much trouble we are really in.
And don't forget GLOBAL WARMING
“When the economist Anirvan Banerji delivered his response to Roubini’s talk, he noted that Roubini’s predictions did not make use of mathematical models and dismissed his hunches as those of a career naysayer.”
Yes, a career naysayer. The man, who more than likely has been predicting this for years and finally something materialized. It’s like predicting rain....6 months later it rains...and some retarded journalist declares you an authority on the weather. Typical Times.
Yes and it all depends where you make that prediction — he made his at Davos 2 years ago and it got picked up. I’ve met Dr Roubini a few times and every time I hear him talk, I feel the need to jump out of an open window. Hearing everything is going to zero over and over again can wear you down ;-)
lol, that’s interesting.
It would be informative to know how far back he really has been predicting this, and perhaps his other predictions. You say you heard it 2 years ago. I think the article only goes back 1 year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes back even further.
Any given outcome to any given situation, you’ll always find SOMEONE who “predicted” it, that’s just the “law of big numbers”. It’s easy to say “why didn’t we listen to him” with 10-10 hindsight, but we forget there were just as many economists predicting a smooth ride through the sub-prime upset 18 months ago.
I think it is more like the “Buy Gold” group that for 20+ years have promised large returns. True that gold finally increased, but if you had listened to their advice when originally given, you would have still had a poor return on investment today.
1934, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1935, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1936, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1937, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1938, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1939, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1940, “Hitler IS conquering the world!!!!!”
“Oh, you’ve just been saying that all along! Say something long enough and of course it’s going to be right, you doom and gloomer.”
So Roubini predicts economic calamity based on continual mass debt building up year after year. The government keeps pulling out the stops to DELAY the day of reckoning. Because the calamity that should have occurred in the absence of massive government intervention takes years more to come about, he is accused of “always being so gloomy and being wrong so long and if thing are bad it is just because he said the same thing so long.”
Right. Some people are clueless.
Like the market, the economy always does what it is supposed to do, just not when it is supposed to do it. Especially when the government is pulling out the stops to prevent it, leading to years or even decades of delay, but increasing the threshold of pain. When he finally is right, it ain’t gonna be pleasant.
1934, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1935, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1936, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1937, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1938, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1939, “Hitler is a madman, he will try to conquer the world.”
1940, “Hitler IS conquering the world!!!!!”
“Oh, you’ve just been saying that all along! Say something long enough and of course it’s going to be right, you doom and gloomer.”
So Roubini predicts economic calamity based on continual mass debt building up year after year. The government keeps pulling out the stops to DELAY the day of reckoning. Because the calamity that should have occurred in the absence of massive government intervention takes years more to come about, he is accused of “always being so gloomy and being wrong so long and if thing are bad it is just because he said the same thing so long.”
Right. Some people are clueless.
Like the market, the economy always does what it is supposed to do, just not when it is supposed to do it. Especially when the government is pulling out the stops to prevent it, leading to years or even decades of delay, but increasing the threshold of pain. When he finally is right, it ain’t gonna be pleasant.
Sometimes people are not wrong in predicting, but only too early in their predictions, especially when the world’s combined economic forces are trying to force the opposite outcome.
Does any one have a good link to an article that refutes the prediction that we are headed to a depression?
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