Posted on 08/09/2008 11:34:52 AM PDT by nwrep
Comments:
Getting concerned as McCain has not led since May. Even the electoral college tally on Rasmussen has had Obama solidly ahead like a rock.
McCain is underperforming Bush in almost all Republican and swing states, including CO, NV, NM, OH, WI, MT, IA, IN, GA, NC, VA, and so on.
Despite an impressive anti-Obama ad barrage, McCain has still not managed to demonstrate a winning electoral college mosaic so far.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
National polls are even worse as Presidential elections are by state not nationally.
It is about the worst climate imaginable for the GOP. I think we lose at least four Senate seats, and a dozen House seats.
I don't find it inconceivable McCain could win though. In this climate, I think we ran our candidate with the best chance of winning while the RATs ran one of their weakest possible candidates.
It's going to be close either way. I agree that McCain needs a defining issue that will motivate people to go to the polls to actually vote FOR him. Fear of Obama is not likely to be enough. The energy issue is potentially there if he can find a way to better harness it.
In the war he brought the Islamist forces (which were the nucleus of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose offspring is no one else than Al-Qaeda) into full alliance with Nazi Germany. After his failed pro-Nazi coup in Iraq and Syria he reached Berlin where he met with Hitler and Himmler, who made him an "honorary Aryan". It was the Mufti who insisted on the Jews being killed, not just expelled. In 1943 he created (and was "godfather") of the Bosnian Muslim SS Division, which were sworn in on the Koran, not on Hitler! The SS also had an Islamic school in Dresden.
After the war the Allies pondered about bringing him before trial for war crimes, however he slipped to the Middle East again where many ex-Nazis were finding employment as military advisers in Egypt and Syria. His last prominent activity was organizing aggression against the Israelis. In the 1950's he p*ssed off Arab rulers (who were nationalistic/socialist secular) minded with organizing Islamist radical groups. He died in Lebanon (or Syria... not sure right now) in the 1970's.
The "Keffyieh" (Palestinian "resistance" scarf) is attributed to him during the 1930's Arab revolt.
He was also an relative (some say uncle) of Yassir Arafat.
The ideological groups of him were the base for Al-Qaeda, Fatah, Hamas and Baath. Quite curious that these somewhat "diverse" groups share the Mufti as a common root.
This just as a comprehensive answer... there are several interesting detailed articles on the net on him and his crimes.
It matches my analysis of the current state of the election. McCain is not in a bad position, but he does need to move the numbers his way by a couple more points in some key states.
Talking about Arafat, why won’t anyone in the Mideast give “Palestinians” a little land?
Either way, one side or the other is going to be severely damaged after the election.
Much of what I'm about to repeat here I have said in this discussion but I presume to set it forth anyway because I think this issue is so important for the future of conservatism which is after all what animates all of us on this forum.
Here is be post, concededly lengthy, for your review:
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I am inclined to credit this report because it reinforces my intuition. So let's consider the implications of a 9% approval rating for Congress.
First, the party that nationalizes the election will sweep. Second, the poll does not say that the Democrats alone are possessed of a 9% approval rating it says that congress is favored by only 9%-that includes Republicans especially for the independents and undecideds who ultimately will decide the race. Third, if neither party succeeds in nationalizing the contest, incumbents on both sides of the aisle will fall in numbers not usually seen in an institution where incumbency has been a virtual guarantee of reelection. Fourth, when discontent is this marked, the electorate will seize on virtually any issue as a metaphor for its anger. Fifth, the Democrats are possessed of leaders who well known but disliked. Republicans are possessed of leaders who are not well-known but who are judged with suspicion. Sixth, the Republicans are not possessed of a Gingrich- like leader who can identify and articulate an issue which will arouse the electorate and enlist his colleagues. Seventh, John McCain is not equipped by temperament or inclination to be such a leader who can step into this void and nationalize the election. Eighth, George Bush might be actually operating against the impulse to nationalize the election. Ninth, because of secular trends including but not limited to the economy, demographics, Republican incumbency in the White House, unpopularity of George Bush, gasoline prices, spending, corruption, the influence of the media, the confected charisma of Barak Obama, Republicans up and down the ticket are doomed to lose this election unless it is nationalized on their terms. Tenth, if the Republicans do not nationalize the election on their terms, the media will nationalize it on terms favorable to the Democrats.
There is one issue, and one issue only, which has the power to nationalize the election and reverse the electoral disaster which is facing the whole of the Republican Party: energy. A negative campaign rightfully exposing Barak Obama as the nouveau he is, or as the charlatan he is, or as the dangerous and anti-American radical he is, is doomed to fail-although such a campaign is a necessary but insufficient contribution to the defeat of Obama and the Democratic ticket. The media will smother and discredit such a campaign. A significant portion of independents resent such campaigns. We Freepers have got to understand that a large part of the electorate simply does not think the way we do, indeed they do not even think about the things we do. Except when a drive up to the gas pump.
An affirmative campaign must also be conducted.
Energy is the perfect metaphor for all that is wrong with the Democratic Party and by extension what the Democrats have done to harm the country and by further extension what the Democrats had done to harm your family. Every time, (and that means about once a week) that a voter pulls up to the pump he is going to get angry at someone. If he gets angry at the Democrats he will be justified. So energy offers up the Democrats as the perfect object for America's justified anger. Energy offers a metaphor for Democrat arrogance which imposes suffering on the people so they can further their crazy ideas. Energy offers a contrast in which the Republicans offer practical solutions and the Democrats offer nothing but obstructionism which defies common sense to the point where it becomes even sinister. Energy offers the metaphor which exposes and illuminates the radicalism of Obama and the arrogance of Pelosi.
Once the people accept the metaphor of energy, the scales fall from their eyes, and they apply these insights against the Democrats across the board.
Energy is the issue upon which the Republicans should bet the whole election. They have nothing to lose, any other course will lead to defeat.
I think we have some House members who get it and are trying to nationalize the election over energy, but they haven't achieved critical mass yet. Lets hope we get there eventually, but we are beginning to run short on time if we don't get our acts together soon.
Have you shared that with Lindsay Graham...???
Forgive them father for they know not what they do.
I don't think Chambliss gets it even now, even after his interview with Rush Limbaugh. I think he is so absorbed in his legislative bubble that he sees reality only in relationship to other satellites in the orbit. He has moved five Democrats senators 3 mm to the right and that to him is a victory. Those 3 mm likely cost the Republicans any hope in this election and doomed conservatism to the political wilderness for a generation from which it might never emerge as something we who live today might recognize.
I am not possessed of such a generosity of spirit to explain Lindsey Graham in this fashion for he is entirely too clever to be oblivious to the terrible damage he might have done. This man must be watched very carefully because he is treacherous and extremely dangerous. He strikes at the most vulnerable keystones of conservatism such as the selection of judges and, in this case, the viability of his country's economy and his party's political life.
I have no question, Lindsey Graham knows exactly what he does.
I hope you are right, but looking at post 138 which shows the electoral map, McCain still has to make up ground.
Florida Poll Released by Survey USA: Barack Obama 44%, John McCain 50%
Boy would I like to be wrong about everything I said on this thread.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2059218/posts
It's not just metaphorical. The Democrats have literally prevented hundreds of millions of barrels of oil, located in fields that were discovered and delineated decades ago, from being produced ( http://www.mms.gov/omm/pacific/offshore/ofrrpt.htm ). We're talking previously discovered "reserves," not undiscovered, 'best-guess' "resources." The oil is there, and we've know about it for decades. But the Democrats, at the federal, State AND local levels won't allow a single drop to be produced.
Once the people accept the metaphor of energy, the scales fall from their eyes, and they apply these insights against the Democrats across the board.
Energy is the issue upon which the Republicans should bet the whole election. They have nothing to lose, any other course will lead to defeat.
I've been telling people for weeks (if not months!) that we can absolutely DESTROY the Democrats on this issue: we've got the backing of a super-majority of Americans (even a majority of Californians, for God's sake!), and the Democrat position is arrogant, irrational, and indefensible. What's our biggest danger? Accepting anything short of victory - we need 100% of the OCS open, 100% of the public lands containing oil shale available, and we should be pushing for ANWR, too. We should shut down government if the Democrats stick a new offshore ban in the budget - force THEM to try to justify the ban! That is not only the right thing to do, but it will keep the issue on the front page right through the election, and show everyone in the country which party is responsible for the high gas prices.
Once again, what's our biggest danger? Tone-deaf, RINO "centrists" compromising with the Democrats, and letting 'em off the hook less than a hundred days before the election. Unfortunately, the President probably would sign any meaningless 'feel-good' compromise legislation that gets passed. And there goes the election...
Oh, I agree wholeheartedly.
There was an article I posted on here a couple of days ago that talks about how many of Obama's once promising targets are now drying up and that his best shot at the White House probably lies in Ohio. Check it out if you get a chance.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2058192/posts
He definitely does. There is no indication this Fall will result in Obama being blown out at this point, but the good news is the ground McCain needs to make up isn't all that big. A point or two in his direction gives him the victory.
Very tough, but also doable if he keeps the momentum he has started to build the past couple of weeks.
“Obama’s IQ and educational; scores are impressive”
I would appreciate seeing this documented.
McCain will carve Obama up like a Thanksgiving turkey in the debates.
You make me chuckle, pal.
As somebody who has been a poll clerk or judge of elections in Pennsylvania for nearly 30 years, I challenge you to produce any substantive evidence of voter fraud in Pennsylvania.
The Philadelphia Republican election judges keep an extremely close watch over what goes on in Philadelphia. Several of them are FReepers and quite well known to me; I don't appreciate you impugning them on the ridiculous hearsay that passes for conventional wisdom here on FRee Republic when it comes to what goes on in Pennsylvania. The actual documented instances of fraud in Philadelphia number in the hundreds, not in the thousands, and certainly not in the tens of thousands.
Good grief! Do you have any idea how difficult it is to engineer a fraud of 75,000 votes, even in a state as populous a Pennsylvania?
In both 2000 and 2004 there were countless incidents of 100%, 102%, even 105% turnouts in some of the all-black precincts. I expect that some on the roster had long been dead, also.
Cite the proof. And please don't post some crap about what some convicted felon and former city councilman claimed at his sentencing hearing -- never proven -- or the usual nonsense from John Fund about election rolls: those numbers have nothing to do with actual ballot stuffing, and they are an artifact of the 2000 election law.
Without Philly, Bush wins Pennsylvania. Without fraud, Bush wins Pennsylvania.
Unadulterated, 100% pure, horse manure. With the high price of nitrogen fertilizer, maybe you can open a shop for the farmers in the Chino Valley or up in Visalia.
You and people like you are the reason that the California Republican Party can't get a dog catcher elected to office, and why the Party here in the Commonwealth is headed in the same direction. Now get this straight: Bush lost Pennsylvania in 2000 and 2004 because he lost in the five heavily Republican counties to the west and north of Philadelphia, and because he lost in the coal counties around Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The Democrats always carry Philadelphia 80-20, and there is nothing new in those numbers in either of Bush's defeats. Blaming his loss on "election fraud" may fly in brainless places like the DU, but it has no place here. You want to keep on losing elections: keep on blaming ballot stuffers. It's bilge. I don't give up $1500 worth of billable hours every May and November to put up with this nonsense on a web forum where people ought to know better. The heavily populated Philly suburbs used to counterbalance the heavy Democrat vote in Philly. In the last two elections, they have not, it's that simple.
Yes, I agree with you. The point is, that it is very tough, as you indicate, something that some people fail to understand.
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