Posted on 08/09/2008 11:11:02 AM PDT by TLI
GORI, Georgia (Reuters) - Georgia called for a ceasefire on Saturday after Russian bombers widened an offensive to force back Georgian troops seeking control over the breakaway region of South Ossetia.
President George W. Bush said Russian attacks on Georgia marked a "dangerous escalation" of the crisis and urged Moscow to halt the bombing immediately.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told Bush the only solution was for Georgian troops to quit the conflict zone.
Russia said it had seized the rebel capital, Tskhinvali, but Georgia denied the claim on the second day of fighting that threatens oil and gas pipelines seen as crucial in the West.
Russian officials said the death toll now stood at 2,000 and 30,000 refugees from South Ossetia had fled to Russia over the past 36 hours. Russia said two of its warplanes had been shot down, 13 of its soldiers killed and 70 wounded.
"I call for an immediate ceasefire," Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said in Tbilisi. "Russia has launched a full scale military invasion of Georgia."
Russia's military response to the crisis dramatically intensified a long-running stand-off between Russia and the pro-Western Georgian leadership that has sparked alarm in the West and led to angry exchanges at the United Nations reminiscent of the Cold War.
Abkhazia, another pro-Russian enclave in Georgia, said its forces had begun an operation to drive out Georgian forces, possibly opening a second front against Tbilisi.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
I've seen some very interesting posts on FR today. Someone mentioned that we should move our aircraft carriers, another mentioned that we should have B-2 bombers and A-10 attack planes to attack Russian armored columns, while another simply stated that we should begin to carpet bomb Russian targets. Interposed between all that were calls for Special Forces (American) to respond to the situation, funding and support of the Georgians, and the US military to step in.
I have never seen such tripe in quite a while. People are rushing to type war with Russia as if it was some video-game.
I have read a lot on the story between Russia and Georgia, and the TRUTH is that BOTH SIDES have crap on their hands. Neither is lily white ...Russia is not innocent (after all, it is in sovereign territory), and Georgia is not the 'Christian' saint that some FReepers are trying to make them out to be (some of the things the Georgians have done against the S.O separatists have not only been very close to cleansing, but they have been against civilians in several instances). Both houses have a pox on them. The current thing is just the result of years (depending on how you look at it, decades) of bad blood between the two protagonists.
The stuff we did in the Balkans also did not help much, but that is not necessary here .....it would be merely semantics at this point.
The main thrust is this ....do the people who are talking about B2 bombers and A-10 warthogs really expect the US to do ANYTHING???? In my opinion all that Bush will do is simply speak. Nothing more. No aid, no g2 assistance, no boots on the ground (that would be hilarious). At most, and even this would be a stretch, would be giving the Georgians some sat intel, and that would even be surprising.
We are in an election year right now. No politician will want to handle that situation ....and while many here see it as advantageous to McCain, if the US Army was to make a move it could easily backfire (as voters see yet another war).
I honestly do not know what is to be done (as mentioned, a pox on both houses. The Russians and the Georgians both have blood on their hands, and this is the result of stupidity on both sides). However I would like to know just what the US is supposed to do .....send A-10 warthogs? Supply the Georgians like the supplies to the Afghan Mujahadeen in the 1980s? Threaten the Russians with military retaliation? Return the US Army units that (so conveniently) left Georgia just before the attacks began? (To be honest I would not be surprised if the Russians had communicated the attack to us before it happened ....)
What exactly is the US supposed to do? What would McCain do in this situation? Pull out troops from Iraq and Afghanistan? Send in the B2s and A10s as some are saying? Supply the Georgians with Javelins to stop the Russian tanks? What?
I would SO like to hear a cogent logical post of what exactly the US is to do, because all I've been reading on other threads are requests of B-2 Stealth bombers and ....oh, a good one ....giving Georgian Intermediate-range ballistic missiles (I assume armed with nuclear warheads).
Sometimes I think that at least a quarter of FReepers are sick in the head. Not as bad a ratio as over in DU, but giving nuke IRBMs to Georgia????
I do feel bad for Georgia, especially since they are either no 3 or no 4 in terms of numbers supporting the effort in Iraq. However, I would still like to hear a logical answer as to how the US is supposed to do anything about the situation (hopefully without mention of warthogs, highways of death, and intermediate range nuclear ballistic missiles ....please include ray guns and photon torpedoes here as well).
Perhaps they are waiting for 20 - 30 thousand Russian troops to get on the "wrong side" of the tunnel. Then light the fires on some of them fancy new fighters loaded with 2,000 pounders.
Putin and "whats his name" would not like it but hey, no body on this side made them show up where they are not wanted.
Fair enough. Georgia sent troops to help the US operations in Iraq. For the sake of obtaining future cooperation from other countries, the US should at least reciprocate. If it were up to me, I’d send 2000 US troops (the same number as sent by Georgia to Iraq), and all the associated supplies.
On the other hand, I would be satisfied, at this early stage, with simply sending the Georgians whatever non-exotic military equipment they needed to equip a few batallions. No nukes, no subs, and no manned aircraft. The Georgian military has apparently been trained in the use of US weapons, so simply sending resupplies might be very effective.
I’d re-evaluate every day, of course, and I’d make sure the Pentagon has plans drawn up to escalate or de-escalate as needed, but, for now, I’d consider Georgia as a shooting gallery for the Georgians to kill as many Russian troops as possible, until such time as the Russians decide to leave.
We have the satellite and the electronic capability to stand off from Georgia and help in this manner. We have the capability to provide all types of material support in trade.
I do notbelieve we are prepared or that it would be wise, short of Russians killing American soldiers in Georgia, to put any boots on the ground or combat aircraft in the air.
But I would watch the Ukraine and other satellite states in that regard, because they may provide more support. Part of it is Russian frustration over the move of so many of their former "satellite" states towards NATO and the EU and them not being able to stop it. Part of it is the old Rissuan desire for lareg buffers between their soil and any large, capable nation's influence on their borders, another big part of it is oil and that major pipelie that Georgia has crossing it.
I do believe that we have to respond strongly to this message or the Russians will be emboldened on other fronts. But if the Russians expand this to other provinces and keep moving deeper into Gerogia with any aim to depose the Georgian government, install their own puppet, and gain defact contro over that oiul, then you will see increasing aid of all sorts going to Georgi to try and prevent that.
It is a very dangerous situation, but one that the Russians have clearly thought out (anbd were prepared for BTW, the movement of their armor and large numbers of troops didn;t happen in a few hours or a couple of days...they have been planning this) and one where they are risking a high stakes military gambit under the auspice of "protecting" their "people" who live in Georgia. Sounds all the world like Hitler and the Sudetenland in 1938 in that regard.
We have to be firm and we have to be measured and careful at the same time...but we do need to respond strongly and with more than words. Words is exactly what Putin is counting on.
We can help, and I believe it has to be forthright, but also very measured and careful. IMHO, we should communicate directly, without fanfare but in unmistakable terms that we are serious about providing whatever logistical, material, and G2 support to the Gerogians that we can and that the situation is likely to be extremely costly for the Russians as long as they remain on soveriegn Georgian soil.
We have the satellite and the electronic capability to stand off from Georgia and help in this manner. We have the capability to provide all types of material support in trade.
I do not believe we are prepared or that it would be wise, short of Russians killing American soldiers in Georgia, to put any boots on the ground or combat aircraft in the air.
But I would watch the Ukraine and other satellite states in that regard, because they may provide more support.
This is a message the Russians are sending. it is a message to all the former block states, it is a message to Europe, and it is a message to US.
Part of it is Russian frustration over the move of so many of their former "satellite" states towards NATO and the EU and them not being able to stop it. Part of it is the old Russuan desire for lareg buffers between their soil and any large, capable nation's influence on their borders, another big part of it is oil and that major pipelie that Georgia has crossing it.
I do believe that we have to respond strongly to this message or the Russians will be emboldened on other fronts.
If the Russians bloody the Georgian's nose in that one Provence, push the Georgians back, and then pull back themselves...there is a chance that things can cool down.
But if the Russians expand this to other provinces and keep moving deeper into Gerogia with any aim to depose the Georgian government, install their own puppet, and gain defact contro over that oiul, then you will see increasing aid of all sorts going to Georgi to try and prevent that.
It is a very dangerous situation, but one that the Russians have clearly thought out (anbd were prepared for BTW, the movement of their armor and large numbers of troops didn;t happen in a few hours or a couple of days...they have been planning this) and one where they are risking a high stakes military gambit under the auspice of "protecting" their "people" who live in Georgia. Sounds all the world like Hitler and the Sudetenland in 1938 in that regard.
We have to be firm and we have to be measured and careful at the same time...but we do need to respond strongly and with more than words. Words is exactly what Putin is counting on.
This is a perfect opportunity to strengthen ties with former soviet block nations and to ensure that russia never regains control of it’s former com-bloc nations.
I think it would be dumb to pass on this opportunity. A stronger russia is NOT what we need right now.
We don’t have to go to war with the russians. We just need to give the georgians and the ukranians weapons and intell...indirectly if possible. And maybe talk someone else into assisting them with their air support...like maybe turkey.
“and it’s not really our fight”
You may be technically right. Georgia has, however, been accepted for membership in NATO, just not made an official member yet.
Over the years they have worked hard making necessary political and economic reforms to meet the membership requirements and they are almost there. It would be sad to have NATO turn its back on them now and allow them to fall to the Russians on the eve of induction into the alliance. It will mean that any promise of security NATO offers is completely hallow because it seems that an attack on one is an attack on all only if it is politically convenient.
Time for Nancy and O’Bammy to scoot over to Moscow and deliver a “Why can’t we all get along” speech. That should rock the Ruskies back some.
Tblisi is not worth starting WWIII over. Also consider the fact that Georgia started this by sending in an armored column into SO and fired on Russian peacekeepers.
Is anyone in the right on this one? Don't think so.
Do we look THAT stupid?
This action was planned far in advance.
I'm not saying it wasn't planned far in advance. This is Russia's biggest military deployment outside its borders in 20 years since Afghanistan. I'm saying that we do not have a dog in this fight. The EU has a massive interest in this (strategic oil pipeline) but the United States of America doesn't.
It seems very complicated. I’m still not sure who started this particular conflict (whether it was the Georgians trying to attack the Russian-backed Ossetians or the Russians trying to attack the Georgians). Naturally, each side is blaming the other.
Someone also pointed out an interesting detail, which is that Beslan is in North Ossetia, which is near Chechnya. So it seems as if the area is subject to conflict from a number of sides.
Either way, and even if the US was caught flat-footed (highly doubt that), the fact of the matter is that it is an election year. Nothing will happen, apart from maybe some satellite info (which will not help the Georgians much). Even if it was not an election year, I do not know any politician who would risk himself over Georgia.
To be honest with you, I am not even looking much at the Georgia/Russia debacle (as I said, a pox on both houses. Neither nation is lily white in this), but rather looking at it as a precursor to what will happen when China decides to move on Taiwan.
Like this situation, all that Taiwan should expect in terms of aid is nicely scripted words and a lot of finger and tongue wagging at the UN. What is going on between Georgia and Russia should be taken as a precursor to what will happen between Taiwan and China.
Which is why the nation of Taiwan should realize that the only help it will get when the Chinese attack will be from Taiwan. It will not come from the UN, will not come from the EU, and will not come from the United States (again, no politician in ANY MAJOR PARTY will take any direct or large-indirect action ....just wax poetic and stop at that). That situation, like this one, will have blogs like FR saying that we should nuke this and that nation, that we should send our B-2 bombers, or that we should have Navy SEALs with limpet mines 'swimming towards ships.' That situation, like this one, will have the actual Governments doing nothing.
Some will ask for the Taiwanese to bomb the 3 Gorges dam, which if it happened would be a disaster that is almost unimaginable (millions of Chinese would die). That would instantly be met by a nuclear attack on Taiwan, which is something the 'attack the 3 Gorges' crowd to not get. Those who do claim that the US should respond with a SLBM strike on Shanghai and Beijing, but do not realize that (again) no US Government will do that (it does not matter whether the person occupying the White House is Obama, or if it is McCain. Neither will do it unless the Chinese are stupid enough to attack US interests, and they are not stupid ....again, look at this situation. It happened less than a day after the US army that was training the Georgians left ....)
That situation, like this one, will have the attacked nation asking for a cease-fire, which shall be refused by the aggressor. Then it will be over.
And Taiwan will be part of China in every way, instead of most ways as it is now (the infiltration of the Chinese into Taiwan is prodigious).
This is a play book for that.
In the same way China is supporting the Russians (even though the Ruskies did this during the Olympics), you shall also see the Russians support the Chinese. In the same way that the Europeans are doing nothing apart from a few nice and soothing words from Merkel (the words were touching), they will do nothing (Russia has them by the proverbial b@lls in terms of natural gas supply). As for the US ....again, even IF we were not in an election year, we would still do nothing. Even someone like JFK had more guts than the Hawkiest Republican alive today (I was not alive then, but I actually think the average Democrat in those days was more conservative ...both fiscally and socially ...than the average Republican now). We will do nothing.
Although the speeches given will surely be amazing ....the words eloquent, and the flow of diction and syntax beyond reproach! At the rate the US is progressing I would not even be surprised to see France (if it continues along the route Sarkozy has put it on) actually taking the lead in such matters. They may not have a full set of testicles, but they appear to at least have a scrotal sack (which the US appears to be on the verge of losing as well).
Yep. Just the thing. After all Mr. Hussein is a “citizen of the world” and Nutjob Nancy wants to “save it.”
Perhaps we might inquire of Nutjob Nancy would like to go visit the area for a few weeks right about now? She can pick up some cool stories about how they also had “one of those corkscrew landings” and run from the plane “dodging sniper fire.”
Makes ya want to slap `em, doesn’t it?
I believe we will supply logistical and material support to the Gerogians.
I believe we are much more apt to become directly involved over Taiwan.
But, like I said, it will depend on who is in the White House (both in terms of the agressor initiating the action and our response) and in both cases, only time will tell.
In retrospect, I believe Russia, China, and certainly Iraq and several European nations felt as you describe and figured that the UN and international outcry over Bush's plans were going to deter him...but they did not, Now, as a result, we are on the verge of having a much more friendly and much more free Iraq in the mid-east now as a result.
That example could well fuel someone like McCain into making a stand. We shall see.
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