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Sorry, my last post had some typos in the html that prevented the whole thing from showing here it is again, with a little added:

I believe the Georgians will account well for themselves, both in terms of manuever warfarte, and, if it comes to is, in terms of guerilla warfare. That will depend on what the Russians aims are. Do they just want to push the Georgians back from this one province, bloody their nose and send them and the other former satellites a message? Or, will they expand to other provinces and move deeper into georgia with the purpose of deposing the current government and installing their own puppet and then, OBTW< being in defacto control of that oil line?

We can help, and I believe it has to be forthright, but also very measured and careful. IMHO, we should communicate directly, without fanfare but in unmistakable terms that we are serious about providing whatever logistical, material, and G2 support to the Gerogians that we can and that the situation is likely to be extremely costly for the Russians as long as they remain on soveriegn Georgian soil.

We have the satellite and the electronic capability to stand off from Georgia and help in this manner. We have the capability to provide all types of material support in trade.

I do not believe we are prepared or that it would be wise, short of Russians killing American soldiers in Georgia, to put any boots on the ground or combat aircraft in the air.

But I would watch the Ukraine and other satellite states in that regard, because they may provide more support.

This is a message the Russians are sending. it is a message to all the former block states, it is a message to Europe, and it is a message to US.

Part of it is Russian frustration over the move of so many of their former "satellite" states towards NATO and the EU and them not being able to stop it. Part of it is the old Russuan desire for lareg buffers between their soil and any large, capable nation's influence on their borders, another big part of it is oil and that major pipelie that Georgia has crossing it.

I do believe that we have to respond strongly to this message or the Russians will be emboldened on other fronts.

If the Russians bloody the Georgian's nose in that one Provence, push the Georgians back, and then pull back themselves...there is a chance that things can cool down.

But if the Russians expand this to other provinces and keep moving deeper into Gerogia with any aim to depose the Georgian government, install their own puppet, and gain defact contro over that oiul, then you will see increasing aid of all sorts going to Georgi to try and prevent that.

It is a very dangerous situation, but one that the Russians have clearly thought out (anbd were prepared for BTW, the movement of their armor and large numbers of troops didn;t happen in a few hours or a couple of days...they have been planning this) and one where they are risking a high stakes military gambit under the auspice of "protecting" their "people" who live in Georgia. Sounds all the world like Hitler and the Sudetenland in 1938 in that regard.

We have to be firm and we have to be measured and careful at the same time...but we do need to respond strongly and with more than words. Words is exactly what Putin is counting on.

Thanks for the logical comments. What you said did make sense (unlike some other people wishing for us to give Georgia IRBMs, or to send Raptors and Warthogs). Although, I really do not think that anything will be done. I also believe that the US knew of the impending attack ....either through indirect sources (e.g. CIA), or from direct sources (maybe the Russians straight up stated they were attacking).

Either way, and even if the US was caught flat-footed (highly doubt that), the fact of the matter is that it is an election year. Nothing will happen, apart from maybe some satellite info (which will not help the Georgians much). Even if it was not an election year, I do not know any politician who would risk himself over Georgia.

To be honest with you, I am not even looking much at the Georgia/Russia debacle (as I said, a pox on both houses. Neither nation is lily white in this), but rather looking at it as a precursor to what will happen when China decides to move on Taiwan.

Like this situation, all that Taiwan should expect in terms of aid is nicely scripted words and a lot of finger and tongue wagging at the UN. What is going on between Georgia and Russia should be taken as a precursor to what will happen between Taiwan and China.

Which is why the nation of Taiwan should realize that the only help it will get when the Chinese attack will be from Taiwan. It will not come from the UN, will not come from the EU, and will not come from the United States (again, no politician in ANY MAJOR PARTY will take any direct or large-indirect action ....just wax poetic and stop at that). That situation, like this one, will have blogs like FR saying that we should nuke this and that nation, that we should send our B-2 bombers, or that we should have Navy SEALs with limpet mines 'swimming towards ships.' That situation, like this one, will have the actual Governments doing nothing.

Some will ask for the Taiwanese to bomb the 3 Gorges dam, which if it happened would be a disaster that is almost unimaginable (millions of Chinese would die). That would instantly be met by a nuclear attack on Taiwan, which is something the 'attack the 3 Gorges' crowd to not get. Those who do claim that the US should respond with a SLBM strike on Shanghai and Beijing, but do not realize that (again) no US Government will do that (it does not matter whether the person occupying the White House is Obama, or if it is McCain. Neither will do it unless the Chinese are stupid enough to attack US interests, and they are not stupid ....again, look at this situation. It happened less than a day after the US army that was training the Georgians left ....)

That situation, like this one, will have the attacked nation asking for a cease-fire, which shall be refused by the aggressor. Then it will be over.

And Taiwan will be part of China in every way, instead of most ways as it is now (the infiltration of the Chinese into Taiwan is prodigious).

This is a play book for that.

In the same way China is supporting the Russians (even though the Ruskies did this during the Olympics), you shall also see the Russians support the Chinese. In the same way that the Europeans are doing nothing apart from a few nice and soothing words from Merkel (the words were touching), they will do nothing (Russia has them by the proverbial b@lls in terms of natural gas supply). As for the US ....again, even IF we were not in an election year, we would still do nothing. Even someone like JFK had more guts than the Hawkiest Republican alive today (I was not alive then, but I actually think the average Democrat in those days was more conservative ...both fiscally and socially ...than the average Republican now). We will do nothing.

Although the speeches given will surely be amazing ....the words eloquent, and the flow of diction and syntax beyond reproach! At the rate the US is progressing I would not even be surprised to see France (if it continues along the route Sarkozy has put it on) actually taking the lead in such matters. They may not have a full set of testicles, but they appear to at least have a scrotal sack (which the US appears to be on the verge of losing as well).