CBS Poll: Obama Holding Off McCain (interesting internals)

CBS News ^ | Aug. 6, 2008 | CBS

[FocusNexus]

(CBS) Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent in the latest CBS News poll. Despite Obama's highly-publicized foreign trip and McCain's recent high-profile advertisements, the findings are unchanged since a CBS News/New York Times poll released last month. The percentage of undecided voters - 13 percent - also remains steady.

Obama's overseas trip, which was widely seen as a success, has not enhanced perceptions of his effectiveness as a commander in chief. Just 20 percent of those surveyed say Obama is "very likely" to be an effective commander in chief, down 4 percentage points from last month. McCain is seen as "very likely" to be effective by 38 percent of respondents, down eight points from last month but still significantly ahead of Obama.

McCain and Obama fare about equally when it comes to voter perceptions of how they will handle the economy. Fifty-two percent of registered voters say they are either "very" or "somewhat" confident that Obama will make the right decisions on the economy; fifty percent are "very" or "somewhat" confident McCain will.

[FocusNexus]

Voters consider the economy as their highest concern. It is very interesting and good for McCain, that in voters' perception, O & McC are even in ability to handle economy. This is a big plus for McCain, because usually voters perceive that Democrats are better at handling the economy, by significant margin.

I think the "drill here, drill now" and Obama's intent to raise taxes is having an effect. McCain and Republicans have a chance this year, if they build on their momentum.

[FocusNexus]

Then there are also some weird internals. See page 3 of the full poll:

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/JUL08B-Elec.pdf

22% of conservatives and 24% of evangelicals to vote for Obama?!

[SolidWood]

22% of conservatives and 24% of evangelicals to vote for Obama?!

Total (C)BS. They polled liberal doofuses and labelled them conservative/evangelical. Labels are labels, it says nothing about the content.

[TheWasteLand]

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,034 adults nationwide, including 906 registered voters

This is essentially registered voters. Also, If I understand correctly, they weighted the poll (from the bottom of the first pdf) GOP/Dem/Ind 284/406/344. So the results they report are 406/284 = 1.43 times in favor of the Rats. This poll is complete and total BS.

[FocusNexus]

More as I am reading through the actual poll:

64% support offshore drilling.

[Maelstorm]

That isn’t going to happen. Conservatives would not vote first than vote for Obama.

[Maelstorm]

CBS polls usually are. Actually most network and magazine polls are bad when they aren’t conducted through mainline pollsters.

[FocusNexus]

That’s the point — the poll is favoring Dems, but it is still pretty good for McCain.

[SunkenCiv]

Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent in the latest CBS News poll... unchanged since a CBS News/New York Times poll released last month. The percentage of undecided voters - 13 percent - also remains steady.

This SeeBS story spins so much I got airsick.

[Red Steel]

I was about to post this.

Yes the internals are interesting.
cBS had to weigh their poll by over 14% more Dems than Republicans. See the last page of the internals:

.....................Unweighted......Weighted
Registered Voters...906..............851

Total Republicans...317..............284
Total Democrats.....381..............406
Total Independants..336..............344

[tanuki]

You’re right-Obama, by the media’s calculation, should be trouncing McCain now, not “holding him back.” Heads must be exploding now, in Medialand-their man is losing bad to an opponent that they themselves had pushed because he was weak. Careful what you wish for, indeed!

[Red Steel]

They are not called ‘See BS’ for nothing.

[Names Ash Housewares]

Sounds familiar to me...

Kerry Up 5 Points In CBS/NYT Poll

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/16/opinion/polls/main630312.shtml

CBS) Senator John Kerry heads toward his nominating convention holding a slight lead over President George W. Bush in the CBS News/New York Times poll, and the ticket of Kerry and his vice presidential nominee John Edwards seems to have generated increased enthusiasm for the Kerry candidacy.

This year the electorate is especially well tuned-in. Today, nearly half of all registered voters say they are paying a lot of attention to the race and nearly all voters are paying at least some. In 2000, just one-quarter were paying a lot of attention at this stage of the campaign. In fact, more voters in this poll say they are paying a lot of attention at this point in time than in any CBS News summertime election year poll.

[Steve_Stifler]

CBS claims it’s a “random” poll. Yet somehow they reached a little over 1000 respondents and ended up with a group of 900+ registered voters. It’s always been my understanding that only 70-75% of eligible persons are registered voters so you’d expect that either you’d only have 700-750 registered voters in a sample group of this size or you’d need to sample at least 1200 people to get this result. Does this suggest something fishy? I dunno.

[philly-d-kidder]

More Independents than Reublicans??

Crazy Internals and Poll!

[goldstategop]

That I don't believe. The bottom line is Obama is fading. Rush Limbaugh has already predicted the Anointed One won't get a bounce out of Invesco Field later this month. The Democrats are finding themselves saddled with an unelectable candidate. If he's tied in the polls of registered voters, in reality, he's behind with the voters likely to vote three months from now.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Go Gordon]

Obama's overseas trip, which was widely seen as a success,

I wonder what CBS defines as "success".

[jmaroneps37]

This another of the desperate ratmedia polls we will see from now on. They CAN NOT let what they KNOW is coming happen. No one over 12 believes McCain is down to barack mcgovern given all that has happened. These panic polls always swing wildly in their effort to remake the truth.

[tobyhill]

It's always the sign of desperation for the Rats when they get their MSM allies to start tweaking the polls.
They have 84% accounted for but claim 13% undecided. The Independents will not get 3% and there's no way 13% are undecided.
My guess is that they did an initial sample poll that showed McCain up 49%-44% with 5% undecided. The 5% are probably claiming that they are undecided Clinton voters that 4% of them will go to Obama and 1% to McCain.
This election will come down to 2 states, Florida and Ohio, which McCain will take them both and win the Presidency.
A week ago I thought Obama was going to take it but because Pelosi refused an offshore drilling vote, which 75% of the American people want, and Obama’s idiotic tire pressure statement, I know people are running from Obama.

[avacado]

The poll is bogus!

It’s weighted to:

Democrats 47%
Republicans 33%

See last page: http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/JUL08B-Elec.pdf