I was about to post this.
Yes the internals are interesting.
cBS had to weigh their poll by over 14% more Dems than Republicans. See the last page of the internals:
.....................Unweighted......Weighted
Registered Voters...906..............851
Total Republicans...317..............284
Total Democrats.....381..............406
Total Independants..336..............344
CBS claims it’s a “random” poll. Yet somehow they reached a little over 1000 respondents and ended up with a group of 900+ registered voters. It’s always been my understanding that only 70-75% of eligible persons are registered voters so you’d expect that either you’d only have 700-750 registered voters in a sample group of this size or you’d need to sample at least 1200 people to get this result. Does this suggest something fishy? I dunno.
More Independents than Reublicans??
Crazy Internals and Poll!
POLLAGANDA STRIKES AGAIN!!!
” ... used the weighted sample of 851 registered voters.
Dems = 408/851 x 100 = 47.9%
Reps = 284/851 x 100 = 33.3% “
That is beyond bizarre. The 380 to 320 Dem to GOP ratio that they got unweighted matches up with previous trends of party affiliation, 1.2 is a lot closer than their over-Democrat weighting. I dont think anyone has measured actual Dem affiliation much above 40%. Party affiliation was almost even in 2004, but now the Dems have about 5-10% advantage. This 15% Dem advantage is BUNK. And btw, whoever showed that trend in Dem affiliation .... FASCINATING. The ground is shifting as we WIN in Iraq and ask the question: To drill or not to drill for our own oil?
There is about a 7% bias factor favoring Obama in this poll due to the Dem skew. Take out that bias and McCain would be ahead be 1 pt ... hmmm, close to the real polls like Gallup and Ras. Fancy that!
“Total Independants..336..............344”
Hmmm...since ‘independents’ wasn’t spelled correctly, I smell a rat.