CBS Poll: Obama Holding Off McCain (interesting internals)

CBS News ^ | Aug. 6, 2008 | CBS

[FocusNexus]

(CBS) Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent in the latest CBS News poll. Despite Obama's highly-publicized foreign trip and McCain's recent high-profile advertisements, the findings are unchanged since a CBS News/New York Times poll released last month. The percentage of undecided voters - 13 percent - also remains steady.

Obama's overseas trip, which was widely seen as a success, has not enhanced perceptions of his effectiveness as a commander in chief. Just 20 percent of those surveyed say Obama is "very likely" to be an effective commander in chief, down 4 percentage points from last month. McCain is seen as "very likely" to be effective by 38 percent of respondents, down eight points from last month but still significantly ahead of Obama.

McCain and Obama fare about equally when it comes to voter perceptions of how they will handle the economy. Fifty-two percent of registered voters say they are either "very" or "somewhat" confident that Obama will make the right decisions on the economy; fifty percent are "very" or "somewhat" confident McCain will.

[jan in Colorado]

CBS Poll?

The ENEMEDIA never tells the truth!

[Skooz]

Last evening, before I could get the remote, Katie Couric was having an orgasm as she breathlessly sighed that Obama was extending his lead over McCain.

I swear she had a cigarette after the teaser.

[TNCMAXQ]

AP did the same thing with their poll. Not all of those polled are even registered to vote! Sounds like that makes the results invalid right from the get-go. I am not doubting that if the election were held today Obama would narrowly win. How sad a statement is that about America. But McCain is running better than a lot expected he would and things can change a lot in 90 days.

[TexanByBirth]

CBS News/New York Times poll

No liberal bias in those two organizations. /sarc

[cookcounty]

"22% of conservatives and 24% of evangelicals to vote for Obama?!

Most blacks describe themselves as evangelicals,

[Snow Eagle]

This poll is completely bogus. Rassmussen, Gallup and a pot-load of other polls have McCain leading. This is completely contrary to any other poll. Even AP-Ipsos didn’t have BHO ahead by this much. CBS strikes again- if you don’t have the evidence to support your thesis, just make it up!!!

[norwaypinesavage]

"Obama's overseas trip, which was widely seen as a success, has not enhanced perceptions of his effectiveness"

Then how can it be described as "widely seen as a success"? CBS is attempting to make lemonade out of lemons, and the drink is quite foul.

[The South Texan]

If Obama only has 6 point lead in a NY Slimes/See BS poll after all the glowing coverage they’ve given him this summer, he’s in trouble.

[spacewarp]

Actually, it’s 43.6% to 27.6%. That’s insane.

It’s just a flat out attempt to get people to believe that Obambi is ahead. It’s a process of using polls to drive the race.

Paul

[avacado]

"Actually, it’s 43.6% to 27.6%. "

How did you get those numbers?

I used the weighted sample of 851 registered voters.

Dems = 408/851 x 100 = 47.9%

Reps = 284/851 x 100 = 33.3%

[spacewarp]

I used the total number of surveyed folks.

So, we’re using the right numbers, but different sets from the result section.

Frankly, it’s ugly no matter how it works out.

It’s a shame that they’re allowed to do that.

I wonder if Perky Katie Couric is aware that Oregon is now VERY much in play and if the trend of the last few weeks continues, it will be red too. New poll today has Obambi up by 3. 48-45. A few weeks ago, he was up 53-38.

July 17:
Strong Dem (211)
Weak Dem (35)
Barely Dem (74)
Exactly tied (14)
Barely GOP (11)
Weak GOP (116)
Strong GOP (77)

July 22:
Strong Dem (207)
Weak Dem (35)
Barely Dem (70)
Exactly tied (27)
Barely GOP (18)
Weak GOP (98)
Strong GOP (83)

July 27
Strong Dem (197)
Weak Dem (49)
Barely Dem (46)
Exactly tied (51)
Barely GOP (21)
Weak GOP (83)
Strong GOP (91)

August 2
Strong Dem (197)
Weak Dem (46)
Barely Dem (73)
Exactly tied (13)
Barely GOP (44)
Weak GOP (68)
Strong GOP (97)

August 6
Strong Dem (185)
Weak Dem (58)
Barely Dem (46)
Exactly tied (13)
Barely GOP (44)
Weak GOP (95)
Strong GOP (97)

Today
Strong Dem (170)
Weak Dem (66)
Barely Dem (53)
Exactly tied (13)
Barely GOP (44)
Weak GOP (95)
Strong GOP (97)

It’s heading in the right direction. The barely dem states are MI, IN, NH, CO, NV and OR.
The tied state is VA
The barely repub states are NC, OH, ND, SD and MT

I spend time on http://www.electoral-vote.com

They get all the polls they can. They have an unbiased posting of information. They have very liberally biased commentary, but they’re really good about not letting their bias show in the polls.

Paul

[avacado]

"I used the total number of surveyed folks. So, we’re using the right numbers, but different sets from the result section."

Okay, I see now. CBS no matter which numbers used are basically cheating in their results. No surprise.

"I spend time on http://www.electoral-vote.com"

I check them too. I like viewing the electoral graph compared to the 2004 election: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html

[Sicon]

because usually voters perceive that Democrats are better at handling the economy, by significant margin

This never ceases to amaze me. It flies in the face of reality, common sense, and history.

[longtermmemmory]

for some odd reason, CBS has a heavy history with European Government state owned television stations.

might explain the cbs bias.

[Fred]

[puroresu]

Those numbers actually look pretty horrible for Obama considering they are summertime results. Any competitive Dem usually is leading comfortably at this point.

[publana]

T’aint happenin’. As much as I despise McQueeg, I will be pinching my nose with a vengeance and going to the polls. No right-minded conservative will sit idly by and allow B. Hussein to be elected. CBS is full of it as usual.

[WOSG]

POLLAGANDA STRIKES AGAIN!!!

” ... used the weighted sample of 851 registered voters.

Dems = 408/851 x 100 = 47.9%

Reps = 284/851 x 100 = 33.3% “

That is beyond bizarre. The 380 to 320 Dem to GOP ratio that they got unweighted matches up with previous trends of party affiliation, 1.2 is a lot closer than their over-Democrat weighting. I dont think anyone has measured actual Dem affiliation much above 40%. Party affiliation was almost even in 2004, but now the Dems have about 5-10% advantage. This 15% Dem advantage is BUNK. And btw, whoever showed that trend in Dem affiliation .... FASCINATING. The ground is shifting as we WIN in Iraq and ask the question: To drill or not to drill for our own oil?

There is about a 7% bias factor favoring Obama in this poll due to the Dem skew. Take out that bias and McCain would be ahead be 1 pt ... hmmm, close to the real polls like Gallup and Ras. Fancy that!

[WOSG]

But the RCP average still has Obama ahead by 2 points or so.

[JavaJumpy]

“Total Independants..336..............344”

Hmmm...since ‘independents’ wasn’t spelled correctly, I smell a rat.