Posted on 08/04/2008 5:38:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Up until now, I have been urging caution in (over)interpreting the results of the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, which had shown the presidential race tightening to a near-tie in recent days. Although the tracking numbers are important sources of information, this trend had not really been reflected in much of the state polling, nor in other, one-off national polls.
Today, however, we have a set of state polling out that does indicate some tightening in the race: (Table at link)
The most interesting results are in Florida and Massachusetts. In Florida, SurveyUSA shows John McCain ahead by 6 points. The only other time it had polled Florida, back in late February, McCain had been ahead by 2. This result is driven in part by SurveyUSA's party identification figures; SurveyUSA does not adjust its results for partisan ID, and they drew a sample that gives the Republicans a 43-38 edge in party affiliation. The conventional wisdom is that party affiliation in Florida should be about evenly divided or somewhat tilted to the Democrats; nevertheless, there may be some softening in the Democrats' party ID edge nationwide, perhaps because of the improved situation on the ground in Iraq.
The Massachusetts poll from Suffolk is interesting mostly for the trendline; Obama leads by 9 points now after having led by 23 points in June. He experienced a particular decline among men: perhaps McCain's 'Celebrity' advertising campaign, which among other things sought to emasculate Obama, has had more resonance with men than with women.
Apart from the state polls, there are now a couple of national polls that show McCain with a slight lead. One is the Rasmussen national tracker, which has McCain ahead 47-46, and the other is a new telephone survey from Zogby, which has McCain up 42-41.
Throwing everything together, we still see Obama with a national lead of about 2 points, but polling over the past 72 hours has indicated an even tighter race. Obama faces a decision about whether to try and get out in front of the news cycle and create some drama of his own -- perhaps with a VP selection or some aggressive lines of attack against John McCain -- or to let the cycle play out organically, hoping that McCain's negative advertising will begin to backfire on him.
Absolutely. McCain has to seize the initiative all through August. Much like what Bubba did to Dole. The key states are turning to McCain already: Florida and Ohio for sure
The funniest news today is a video where Boma compared himself to Brittany or Paris. Said he’s more popular than they are. LOL. (I though that was racial-speak)
Patient: "Good morning. Well, you called me in. You have some news?"
Doctor: "Yep, sure do."
Patient: "Okaaaay??"
Doctor: "Well, the good news is, we got all the cancer."
Patient: "Great!"
Doctor: "Yes, and, well...the bad news is, you have Hepatitis A and B".
Obama needs to do something really dramatic to recapture his momentum, like perhaps declare he’s changed positions on the few remaining issues he hasn’t flipped on yet.
We need more change we can believe in!
After the dem convention and the VP pick, Obama will have nothing "dramatic" to fall back on. He will be revealed as the completely empty suit that he is.
From now until November, Obama will be providing McCain with ammunition every time he opens his mouth. I would write more but I have to put some air in my tires.
Here's an idea for Hussein. How about he takes a trip to the Middle East and brings all the network newsies with him?
Oh.
Everyone needs to remember to donate the $25 to McCain to get their Obama tire gauge. That was an AWESOME idea. When they log on the McCain site, they ask where did they hear, and some of us put Free Republic.
McRINO can pull it off and more so if he puts Gov Palin on the ticket.
McCain has to keep Obama on the Offensive.
He is letting Obama deliver these votes to him. He is doing this brilliantly.
The bottom line is that Obama just is not ready for prime time and it is showing and people are getting that. Even Obama’s latest ad countering McCain on energy was just plain bad. Honestly, I don’t want this guy to tank too soon. Can he wait until after the nomination at least?
LOL! Very funny :)
Go Whitey Go
Wow, Obama only up by 9 points in Massachusetts; the bluest of the blue states. That should send a shiver up Obama’s leg.
Ding bat me. I meant: McCain has to keep Obama on the Defensive.
Taking his cue from Jesse Jackson, no doubt.
I agree he is doing pretty well even without any support from the media ... except ... when they fuss about how terrible his Paris ad is or his Charleton Heston ad is, then they reference the ad or even show it. To show how awful it is and how unfair. Thereby giving him free advertising. Brilliant. That’s the best part about funny, edgy, controversial ads by Republicans.
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