Posted on 08/04/2008 4:44:59 PM PDT by maccaca
A couple of polls out today at state level are showing further improvement of McCain's standing at state level.
Survey USA Florida McCain 50 Obama 44
Poor Obama, he has spent over $5 million on ads in this state since primary, and McCain has spent ZERO. Great investment return, and keep it up, Obama.
Other polls are conducted in safe blue and red states, nothing particular interessting except the trendline.
Suffolk Massachusetts Massachusetts Obama 47, McCain 38 (June: Obama 53, McCain 30) John Kerry, keep talking and I'm sure you'll help your buddy even more.
Rasmussen Arizona McCain 52, Obama 36 (June: McCain 49, Obama 40)
Rasmussen Alabama McCain 55, Obama 37(June: McCain 51, Obama 36)
Rasmussen Connecticut Obama 51, McCain 36(June: Obama 52, McCain 35)
I hope Obama doesn’t carry Pennsylvania, but a conservative assessment of the election says he will.
I am premising the scenario on recent election trends and conventional wisdom. The purpose here is to look at the race as sober as possible, without making any excited utterances that reflect more my own hopes than any solid empirical evidence.
And if the election breaks down in the least exciting, least surprising way possible, then it will go to McCain, by a hair. But if one red state worth at least 11 electoral votes flips, then Obama will win, so long as he carries either New Mexico or New Hampshire.
I am submitting that if this is to happen, that state will be Indiana, not Virginia, Florida, or Ohio, and the selection of Evan Bayh as Obama’s running mate will play a major role in it. This is something campaign McCain should be most concerned with and developing a strategy against.
Adding Bayh gets Obama close, but he is not going to win here. He has close to zero support from the rank and file Democrats in the Southern part of the state. Even adding Evan Bayh to the ticket is not going to change that enough to put him over the top.
Plus, Indiana is said to be deadlocked because of one poll. I all but guarantee you that when the next round of Indiana polls come out you will see McCain has opened up a lead here.
This all sounds to ring true, however, and while McCain may take Indiana no matter what in the end, I think you would agree that Bayh risks Indiana far more than Kaine risks Virginia when the votes are actually cast.
And we can’t forget Rudy Clay’s late night Chicago-style stuffing of the ballot boxes in Gary, IN. Obama obviously had some of his Chicago boys cross the border to give him a hand.
Voter fraud alone might not be enough, and Evan Bayh alone might not be enough either, but together, they could pose a real threat to McCain in Indiana, and I think you would agree that given this, Indiana does present Obama with his best shot against McCain, no matter how long that may turn out to be.
Hey George Soros...FU.
The big shocker last election cycle was the reasonably popular Indianapolis Mayor (D) was ousted by a little known GOP candidate. No one saw it coming, and I seriously doubt it would have been possible without our voter ID law.
If Obama is counting on Indiana to put him over the top, then I REALLY like McCain's chances come November.
If Obama loses PA, it will be because of Rendell.
He is still in the Hillary camp, and he could hold back the “dead voters” that always show up in Pittsburgh, Philly and Allentown.
An Obama loss is a win for Hillary.
Obama will win most of urban Fairfield County (possibly losing Westport if he turns off enough Jews), while losing the gold coast suburbs. Barry will win Hartford and surrounding towns, to say nothing of the Havens (New, West, and East), and the old mill towns. You can take that to da bank. Not a chance in hell McCain wins CT.
Obama will also win NJ, although he will lose the normally Democratic suburbs in the southern part of the state facing Philly, due to the rough racial politics of said city.
The only reason the Dems have won Pennsy in the last few cycles is because Clinton/Gore/Kerry won Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks counties, three counties won by GHWBush in ‘88. Although there has been an increase in the black population in said counties, even the most braindead soccer mom will vote McCain in the booth. Philly has a long history of racial tension and white flight that cannot be forgotten.
Love your statement, short, sharp and to the point./Just Asking - seoul62......
The other thing that helps in Indiana is we have a voter ID law. Makes it real tough for RATs to steal elections.Not if it is a corrupt election board and mayor tampering with the tally afterwards.
Good analysis. Thanks.
Heh Heh!
Ha!
BWAHAHAHAHA!!!
Since I don't want to take your money. History is on my side. I'd agree to a different bet.
Loser donates $50.00 to the next FReepathon
But, first a little clarification
By margin, I mean the popular vote, not the electoral vote.
If McCain wins by 8.0 percentage points over Obama in the total vote count for the election, I'd pony up the $50.00. If he wins by less, you pony up
Deal ?
Deal .
Even allowing that he may win by 7.9 percent. A large enough margin to be somewhat embarrasing for Obama, who is sure he’s already won. “Europe” told him so.
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