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Oil's Rapid Rise Stirs Talk of $200 A Barrel This Year
Wall Street Journal ^ | 7 July 2008 | NEIL KING JR

Posted on 07/06/2008 5:35:46 PM PDT by shrinkermd

Oil's historic ascent from $100 to nearly $150 a barrel in just six months is lending weight to a far grimmer prediction: Crude could reach $200 a barrel by the end of the year.

Oil at that price would wreak deeper havoc on the world's airlines and automobile industries.

In the U.S., $200 crude would push the price of gasoline to well over $6 a gallon, causing commuters to alter their driving habits more sharply than they have already, while putting extreme strains on large sectors of the U.S. economy. In Europe, it would stir more political unrest and increase the clamor to cut the continent's stiff petrol taxes. In Asia, governments would be under pressure to cut fuel subsidies and risk a popular backlash.

U.S. benchmark crude prices leapt 3.6% last week, closing before the Independence Day holiday at a record $145.29 a barrel. Roughly halfway through the year, oil prices have soared 50% since Jan. 1 and have doubled since the same time last year.

Few oil watchers are now ready to bet that oil will hit $200 a barrel by New Year's Eve. But nearly all are wary of predicting how and when oil's upward stampede will be reversed.

What makes the market so unpredictable, analysts say, is that prices are being pushed by such a wide array of factors, while no single force has emerged with the power to throw them in reverse.

The list of forces shoving prices upward is long: a weak dollar driving hot money into commodities; jitters over a possible military conflict with Iran; soaring costs and chronic project delays in the world's oil patch; concerns over scarce supplies and long-term production declines; and continued robust demand growth in much of the developing world

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 200; energy; energyprices; oil
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1 posted on 07/06/2008 5:35:46 PM PDT by shrinkermd
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To: shrinkermd

This is linear thinking. The price of gas is already altering driving habits and killing airlines. We’ll be in a recession before it hits that mark.


2 posted on 07/06/2008 5:39:06 PM PDT by saganite
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To: shrinkermd
I will still be able to drive back and forth to work.

That motorcycle is looking like it was a real good investment.

3 posted on 07/06/2008 5:39:59 PM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: shrinkermd

Ought to cut down on drive-by shootings.


4 posted on 07/06/2008 5:40:52 PM PDT by A_perfect_lady
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To: shrinkermd

Just last fall “all the experts” were predicting Google shares at $1000 because they couldn’t see anything that could stop it.

“The future’s not ours to see”


5 posted on 07/06/2008 5:43:54 PM PDT by motor_racer (Open war is upon you, whether you would risk it or not.)
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To: saganite

The price of gas is already altering driving habits and killing airlines. We’ll be in a recession before it hits that mark.
:::::::
Yes, our grand government has done a beautiful job of shafting the American public and our economy with their corruption and pandering to the big-money donators in the radical enviro-nut left. The sign over the door of the Congress says...

*** LEGISLATION FOR SALE, IN SPITE OF AMERICA ***


6 posted on 07/06/2008 5:46:17 PM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: motor_racer

You forgot to give credit to the author - Kay Serrah.


7 posted on 07/06/2008 5:47:45 PM PDT by Emmett McCarthy
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To: shrinkermd

If I’m understanding this correctly, this is a rise in price with no corresponding change in supply or demand. Supply is roughly fixed and demand is either constant or falling. (The article mentions “continued robust demand growth in much of the developing world”, but they can afford higher prices even less than we can. I have my doubts about how true that statement is.) When this happened in real estate, it was called a “bubble”. I’m no economist, but is this another bubble?


8 posted on 07/06/2008 5:52:42 PM PDT by Redcloak ("Yes, I have been drinking. Why do you ask?" #1 on the list of "Things heard from McCain voters")
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To: shrinkermd
Alright! Who the h*ll is doing this? Soros? Our own govt? Is this to sensitize the USA and the world to oil shock prior to war with Iran?

The cost of the war (which the left screams about) is nothing compared to what we are sending over seas for oil.

9 posted on 07/06/2008 5:53:13 PM PDT by blasater1960 ( Dt 30, Ps 111, The Torah is perfect, attainable, now and forever)
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To: A_perfect_lady
Ought to cut down on drive-by shootings.

That's the upside.

The downside is, the number of carjacks will skyrocket.

"Is your gas tank full, fool?!!?"

10 posted on 07/06/2008 5:53:59 PM PDT by Publius6961 (You're Government, it's not your money, and you never have to show a profit.)
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To: shrinkermd
Oil at that price would wreak deeper havoc on the world's airlines and automobile industries.

The Energy Revolution has begun? It's out of OPECS hands this time.

11 posted on 07/06/2008 5:55:32 PM PDT by Realism (Some believe that the facts-of-life are open to debate.....)
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To: shrinkermd

Thank You, Pelosi and Reid for the ever increasing price of the very fuel that runs our economy! You two are doing a marvelous job, and I hope that you keep up your efforts. Your approval ratings are currently about one half of those that President Bush has and I have full confidence in your abilities to halve your current numbers again by August. Keep digging, turds!


12 posted on 07/06/2008 5:55:59 PM PDT by Howie66 (To the RAT Party: How can I question your patriotism? You have none, so what's your point?)
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To: shrinkermd

Islamic Saudi-controlled OPEC killing the world’s economy while attacking with the billions they make.

Drill here drill now!

http://www.americansolutions.com/actioncenter/petitions/?Guid=54ec6e43-75a8-445b-aa7b-346a1e096659


13 posted on 07/06/2008 5:57:00 PM PDT by eleni121 (EN TOUTO NIKA!! +)
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To: shrinkermd

Oil may be screaming “mid-east escalation.” let israel take out a few centrifuges in Iran, and sell it back down to a hundred.


14 posted on 07/06/2008 6:01:39 PM PDT by the invisib1e hand (maybe apes evolved from people.)
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To: shrinkermd

Pure and simple economics:

The cure to high prices is high prices.

Next year at this time, barring the dumbass liberals don’t do anything stupid, gas AND FOOD prices will be lower.


15 posted on 07/06/2008 6:13:05 PM PDT by twoputt
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To: bushbuddy
gas AND FOOD prices will be lower.

I see big changes also, just not lower prices.

16 posted on 07/06/2008 6:19:02 PM PDT by Realism (Some believe that the facts-of-life are open to debate.....)
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To: Redcloak

In general yes. The price of oil is based on a narrow supply cushion. No noticeable domestic energy production or refinement in 30 years. A lame Congress makes it a sure bet for speculators. The spot price in 2016 is $137 a barrel and if you looked at a chart it stays more or less the same for several years. It’s the markets bet that the USA will do nothing little if nothing about energy (let’s hope we prove them wrong) while hedging there bets against our own suicidal fiscal policies we are exporting to them in the form of inflation (2/3rds of the globe pegged to our purposeful devalued dollar).

I expect short-term easing from August 2008 to August 2009 on oil but our own energy policy and adding supply by drilling and/or alternatives and how fast we do it will dictate our total financial disposition in the short and mid-term.

Right now, I have low confidence and am preparing accordingly from a physical perspective and investment porfolio. Our economy is deflating and there are no asset cushions like we had during the Dot.com bubble. Real-Estate was just tried and the greedfests and continuation of our excesses just made the days of reckoning worse. Our nation operated on the Efficient Market Hyposis (google it) which has failed. Commodities may be a bubble but it is the last hard assets which are considered safe play (and oil and gold about the two true safety plays). Demand destruction has begun in the U.S. and S & D still play a big factor, especially as we deflate and the ripples create a global recession.


17 posted on 07/06/2008 6:35:44 PM PDT by quant5
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To: Publius6961

“Is your gas tank full, fool?!!?”

Oh yes it is....and so is my .45, dirtbag.


18 posted on 07/06/2008 6:35:44 PM PDT by Tahoe3002 (USMC 1972-1981)
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To: shrinkermd
bumper-sticker
 
 

Contact your Congress critters to let them know that you are tired of high gas prices.

U. S. Senate

U. S. House of Representatives

19 posted on 07/06/2008 6:43:01 PM PDT by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: shrinkermd
$200 a barrel is the price at which we are looking at a long, deep recession. Traders should be careful about talking the price up like that. It's going to bite them big time on the other end.

The fact that oil is enough of a monopoly that it is even possible to talk it up like this is enough evidence for me that we need to make replacing it a top national priority. Moonshot to energy independence so that we can give oil the competitor that it so desperately needs.
20 posted on 07/06/2008 6:45:24 PM PDT by mysterio
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