Posted on 05/27/2008 4:07:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
I know that we are getting closer to a national election because I am starting to wake up sometimes in the middle of the night thinking about the path to 270 and the White House through the Electoral College. I wish I was making that up.
In 2004, Bush won 286, Kerry got 251. Kerry actually won 252, but some moron in Minnesota cast his electoral vote for "John Ewards." So with 270 needed to win, the Democrats need to find a way to peel off 17 Electoral Votes from the Republican side. Ohio is 20. That is the obvious route; win Ohio, hold the 2004 states and we have a liberal in the White House the likes of which we have never seen before. But that exact scenario probably won't happen, so let me give you a mathematical breakdown of where things stand. Just for reference, here were my picks from 2004. I flat out missed Iowa, which Kerry barely lost. I put Minnesota in the Republican column; I think I was looking for a reason to pick that state with my heart and not my head and I got duped by a late Mason-Dixon poll that was off…..no one typically polls states better than Mason-Dixon. I got the other 48 states right - Ohio, New Mexico, Florida (and by the healthy margin Bush won by), Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, etc.
As of right now, here is where everything stands - again with 270 being the magic number, and assuming it is Obama vs. McCain:
Safe Republican (165): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Loiusiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).
Likely Republican (24): Arkansas (6), Montana (3), North Carolina (15).
Lean Republican (51): Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).
Toss Up (43): Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20).
Lean Democrat (55): Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10).
Likely Democrat (43): Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Washington (11).
Safe Democrat (157): California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3).
Of course, this will change as the campaign unfolds and states will come off the map and new ones will be added. This is based on right now and what happened in 2004. A brief summary of a few key states and why I placed them where I did:
Florida is one of the few red trending states and a place Obama is not polling well. If we can't win Florida, it has been a landslide loss and I will be in my bed trying to not to cry at about 10PM. Missouri is a tough one to read right now, but McCain is probably up there by a few. As far as Virginia goes, Democrats are pumped over one poll that showed Obama up big there last week, but that contradicted other recent polls. Democrats are going to capture Virginia one of these days, but I think they are still a cycle or two short. They don't have the numbers in Northern Virginia yet to off-set the rest of the state. More after the jump….
Colorado is definitely trending blue. Bush won there by less than 5% in 2004 and there is some concern here. Definitely a state Obama will put a heavy emphasis on (and is already doing so). Some Democrats are already counting this state as a pickup for Mr. Chicago, something I think is far-fetched to do when you are coming off a 5% loss the previous cycle. This is also a state where Bob Barr could have an impact. I view Colorado as one of three key states in 2008 along with Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama getting the 9 EVs in Colorado really opens up new channels to victory when you do the math. Nevada was tight in 2004 - Bush won by 2.5% / 20,000 votes. One state where the Hispanic vote will swing things and no knows if that block will support McCain in higher numbers than Bush - actually a big question out West. New Hampshire was the only state Kerry won that Gore lost. He won by about 1.5% / just over 9,000 votes. McCain seems to be very popular in New Hampshire, but this is state where Republicans have taken a beating like no other since 2002 with the war being the biggest reason. Bush is as popular as a mortician there. Probably the slightest of leans to Obama right now there. New Mexico was razor thin in 2004 (Bush by 6,000 votes), but I just have a gut feeling this state has gone a tad to the left. People there for some reason like Bill Richardson, but they like McCain as well, so this has to stay in the toss-up section. In my opinion, New Mexico was the one state the late DUI revelation in 2000 cost Bush. Ohio obviously deserves it's own post; it is a toss-up if there ever was one. There is really no scenario McCain loses Ohio and wins the White House. You could argue that he could win Pennsylvania in exchange, but that almost assuredly won't happen.
Bush won Iowa by .67%, but Obama campaigned there all winter, so you have to give an edge there now to the neighboring senator, just based on the organization. I just don't get Michigan. That state has been run into the ground by the Democrats there and they keep winning. Bush/Cheney put in a major effort there and still came up short, losing by 3.5% or so. Kerry had to pay more attention than he wanted there, but the results were disappointing for Republicans. I don't think McCain is going to focus on Michigan, especially after what he said there during the primary. Wisconsin was won by Kerry by .38%, but Obama seems to be popular there. This is another place in 2004 where BC 04 put in a Herculean effort and came up just shy of what they needed, which makes me wonder if the votes are even there to win unless it is a landslide election. Lastly, Pennsylvania. The key to the Democratic map. They almost have to win here. In 2004, Republicans were able to fight this state to the end and force Democrats to spend much more time and resources there then they wanted, keeping Kerry and his surrogates from going elsewhere. Other than the "I voted for it before I voted against it" comment, the PA dynamics were the key to the election (along with Kerry putting up a false front that he was going to win Florida and spending way too much time there). Most people don't realize that Bush won Ohio with a bigger % margin than Kerry won Pennsylvania by because the networks dragged their feet on the Ohio call while calling PA much much earlier.
So as we sit here, the main Republican key is Ohio. Pennsylvania is the big one for the Democrats, and again, more so trying to keep Republicans off the field there. Colorado (their flag, pictured) is the big swing state in 2008. For arguments sake, say McCain wins Ohio and loses New Hampshire, so we are back to Obama needing to pick up 17 EVs somewhere. That 9 in Colorado helps. Then he needs 8 more - and he can go to Iowa (7) + Nevada (5) or New Mexico (5). Or win Nevada and New Mexico without Iowa. Colorado is Obama's gateway to the Rocky Mountain Victory Route he wants. Without it, it gets much tougher.
This write up would have been much different if I was basing it on a Clinton - McCain match. And in case you are wondering, the most plausible scenario for the 269-269 tie, which Obama would win based on the makeup of the House, is everything the same from 2004 sans Obama picking up Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico.
2004 Election results here. And I am not happy that Republicans have been designated the "red party." That should be the Democrats since red is the color of communism. It wasn't always this way; as recent as 1996 ABC News used blue for Republicans on their election night map.
Obama......God help us all
Only question: why do you put Kansas in safe Republican?
Obama has some ties there that might cause it to shift Democrat this election ... just for pork's sake.
Put Colorado in the marxist column. Sen. Allard is retiring.
The dem-o-rat is a long term congressman. The ‘pub is ok, but I get the impression he is squishy.
Good work ..........Thanks for that effort !
Yeah, unlike that rock-ribbed conservative Barack Hussein Muhammad Obama, who's a regular Ronald reagan clone, right? Life sometimes hands you two sh*tty choices. See my tagline...
Most people in Wisconsin strongly dislike the Bears and anything to do with Chicago.
Despite the fraud, McCain wins Wisconsin by 3%!
I didn’t write this, I just posted the thread...
This is like predicting the weather 5 months in advance. What we need is a neutered president no matter who wins. This can only be accomplished by splitting the houses among both parties. I move we start a grassroots movement to take back the house with real conservatives instead of RINOS.
Seems like it would have been a lot easier to nominate a conservative than to grovel for socialists and marxist leftovers from ClintBama.
Up until 1976, color assignment was random, with both parties seeking to avoid the "red". In that year, all of the television networks agreed that they'd avoid any implication of favoritism in color selections (Hah!). The color of the incumbent party, initially set as blue for Gerald Ford’s Republican ticket in that year, would flip every four years. Consequently, a successful challenger runs again in four years, as the incumbent, under the same color. So in 1992, the challenger Clinton was red on the maps, and in 1996, incumbent Clinton was also red. Challenger Bush, red in 2000, was red again as an incumbent in 2004. That formula dictates that the Republicans should be carrying the blue flag this time around (and with Obama's retro-Soviet campaign posters, never have the Dems more deserved to be Red).
It will be interesting to see how the networks color their maps. Gentlemen, place your bets.
I may be wrong as I can be, but I have come to the place that I will no longer vote for a man who is diametrically opposed to what I stand for, just to prevent someone worse from being elected.
This year it seems that if Caligula(R) and Satan(D) were running, many Republicans would claim Caligula(R) would be the clear guy to vote for.
If we refuse to take a stand, we will stand for nothing.
I don’t know what the answer is, but if voting for a man like McCain is the best we can do, then it’s already over.
Some of the NJ polls seem to indicate it could be up for grabs. If a local issue that favors the GOP emerges McCain could win there.
McCain will procede to carry out about 70% of what Obama would. Obama would be opposed by about 42 Senators and 175 House members. McCain will be opposed by about 10 Senators and about 50 House members.
Half of the Republican party will support anything McCain does. Nearly all Congressional Republicans will. 100% of the Republicans would oppose anything Obama wanted to do. Nearly 100% of the Congressional Republicans would also.
The RNC will support anything McCain does.
The RNC would oppose everything Obama will do.
I’m not going to back McCain’s one party rule.
We got plenty of giggles at John Kerry voters voting for Kerry because they disliked Bush more. That didn’t work out too well for them.
And, without Bobby Jindal on the ticket in the VEEP spot, Louisiana could go Dem this year.
No, not because we don't know where all 57 states are.
But because it makes it easier to visualize the situation and to grasp what's important at a glance.
Every year someone finds a ray of hope for Republicans in NJ and California and every year they go solidly Democrat.
If McCain hopes to win with a low-budget campaign then he should only go to states like NJ and California on combination fundraising/photo-op tours.
Anyone who tries to convince him to spend significant amounts of money for TV ad buys in NJ or California should be summarily fired.
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