Will age just be a number in '08? ( McCain )

politico.com ^ | 5/4/08 | JONATHAN MARTIN

[kellynla]

Is John McCain Ronald Reagan or Bob Dole?

Or, more to the point, will McCain be perceived as the vigorous, wood-chopping proclaimer of “Morning in America” or as a cranky senior senator prone to gaffes and the occasional stage tumble?

The sensitive question of age — one of the trickiest and most unpredictable in the political playbook — has been touched upon only glancingly since McCain became the de facto GOP nominee. But it is certain to hover over a candidate who will be 72 by Election Day.

For all the ink spilled on whether the country is ready for a woman or African-American, polls indicate that more Americans worry about having a president over 70.

And McCain’s public image is unmistakably tied to his age. Pew surveys taken in February and again last month showed that when voters are asked what word they would identify with McCain, “old” was far and away the choice.

Recent presidential history shows being a septuagenarian is not a disqualifier. Reagan was 73 in his 1984 reelection campaign and won a 49-state landslide.

Dole, however, was the same age when he ran for president in 1996 against Bill Clinton and was never really in contention.

Veterans of both campaigns agree that with McCain as the GOP nominee, age will again be an issue — and say the Reagan and Dole experiences offer the McCain team some best-case and worst-case scenarios on how to deal with it.

Ed Rollins, Reagan’s reelection campaign chief, said campaign aides knew in the years leading up to the election that age would be an issue and prepared for it.

“We showed him as very active — lifting weights, swimming, riding his horse and chopping wood,” Rollins said, recalling a Parade magazine cover story in early 1984 that detailed the president’s workout regimen.

And as he did with many troublesome questions, Reagan used his own wit and impeccable timing to defuse the age issue. He invited the topic — and then promptly disposed of it by showing just how sharp he still was.

Ken Khachigian, another key aide in the Reagan reelection effort, recalled a speech Reagan gave during an Oktoberfest celebration in Milwaukee in September 1984.

Opening his remarks, Reagan said how great it was to be back at Old Heidelberg Park.

See Also Edwards lacks North Carolina clout Cazayoux wins La. special election Obama wins Guam by 7 votes “I can remember when they called it just plain Heidelberg Park,” Reagan said to laughs.

Later that fall, in his first debate against Democrat Walter Mondale, Reagan delivered such a weak, stumbling performance that real questions were raised about, as Khachigian put it, “whether the Gipper was losing it.”

His staff, not helping matters, said the president had been tired.

“For a few weeks, the age issue really took off,” said Bob Beckel, Mondale’s campaign manager that year. After months of laboring to find an angle against a popular incumbent blessed with a growing economy and peace abroad, the Mondale campaign had a glimmer. “He finally gave us something,” Beckel recalled.

And then he took it away.

With the is-he-too-old question on everybody’s mind heading into the second and final debate, Reagan again deployed his humor.

Asked directly if he could still function in a crisis, the former actor nailed his line.

“I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign,” he assured, trying to be serious for the set-up. “I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience.”

Even Mondale had to laugh.

Twelve years later, though, Republicans were grimacing, not laughing.

Dole was on his way to defeat, brutally defined by Clinton and his campaign team as a relic who could not be trusted to lead the nation into a high-tech future.

“Our line was ‘Building a Bridge to the 21st Century,’ ” recalled Doug Schoen, one of Clinton’s pollsters. “Anybody could see Bob Dole as being irrelevant for the 21st century.”

To drive home the not-so-subtle message, Clinton cut what Schoen deemed a “negative bio ad.”

Recounting Dole’s decades in Congress, the Clinton team dredged up votes that were not only unpopular but redolent of a bygone era. “The message was: ‘He was wrong from the start,’ ” said Schoen.

Dole didn’t help himself, either. He referred to the Dodgers as playing baseball in Brooklyn; the team moved to Los Angeles in 1958.

And in September of 1996, he had what many political observers saw as a fitting moment for his plummeting campaign. Waving to supporters after a rally in Chico, Calif., Dole took a fall off the stage and had to be helped up.

For a middle-aged candidate, it may have just been good for a fleeting chuckle. But for a 73-year-old, it was the worst kind of imagery.

Democrats haven’t been so lucky yet to have a Chico moment with McCain, but there are already traces of Clinton’s rhetoric from the ’96 race.

Before attacking his potential general election rival, Barack Obama always makes certain in his stump speeches to pay homage to McCain’s patriotism — and longevity.

“John McCain has offered this country a lifetime of service, and we respect that,” Obama said recently in Evansville, Ind., “but what he’s not offering is any meaningful change from the policies of George W. Bush.”

Obama’s veiled language — the rhetorical equivalent of offering a gold watch — will apparently stay cloaked.

McCain's age is "not a topic we'll bring up,” promised Robert Gibbs, Obama’s top spokesman. “It’s not his age that's an issue, it’s his vision of a third George Bush term.”

But some Democrats already have explicitly questioned McCain’s fitness to serve at his age, including Rep. John Murtha, who himself is 75. The Clinton-backing Pennsylvanian has twice tweaked his fellow Vietnam veteran, suggesting first that the presidency was “no old man’s job” and then that McCain’s willingness to keep troops in Iraq for the long term was that of somebody who “doesn't expect to be around” for a second term.

Such shots, delivered by someone from McCain’s own generation with a smile and a chuckle, are the way the issue can be exploited, said Beckel.

“The only people who can attack on this are his age or older,” said Beckel, surmising that a contemporary could not be accused of ageism.

Trotting out a test line to be delivered by Murtha or another elder Democratic statesman, Beckel offered: “’I don’t know about John, but at 73 I can’t put up with that kind of pressure.’”

And, as Scott Reed pointed out, such an issue would have particular resonance among voters in the same age bloc.

“Seniors are the ones who really question [the age factor],” said Reed, Dole’s campaign manager in ’96. “And that’s the voting group that really turns out in national elections.”

Still, Beckel and others cautioned that using the issue against McCain would carry great risk.

“Attacking him personally about his age would have really driven our negatives,” Beckel said of Reagan in the’84 race. Most political operatives have personally experienced the fall-out that can come with trying to tar an opponent with the weight of his or her years.

McCain also has clear lines of defense. Just as the public had a degree of sympathy for Reagan’s health after his shooting in 1981, Beckel noted that the injuries McCain sustained as a POW offer some protection.

The smarter course for the Democrats, Schoen said, is to hew to the subtler path.

“Obama ought to say: ‘We’re in a different world, in a different era, with different kinds of challenges.’ ”

And McCain should be prepared for it because the issue isn’t going away, said Reed.

Unlike with race or gender, making light of old age is still fair game in American pop culture.

“You have to count on late-night comedians making it a mainstream issue,” said Reed.

Recalling how careful they were about Reagan’s schedule, Rollins had some advice for McCain: “Don’t try to compete with him or you will break down,” he said of the 46-year-old Obama.

And to McCain’s staff, Rollins had this: “Make sure he’s resting and eating – don’t overextend him.”

But that may be difficult given the very antidote McCain plans on using to deflect the age question.

"Watch me campaign," he shot back when asked about the matter at a conference of media executives last month in Washington. "Come on the bus again, my friends, all of you."

Another factor in addressing it, said adviser Charlie Black, is who McCain picks for vice-president.

Recalling the 1980 race, Black said the day Reagan tapped George H.W. Bush for the number two slot “it went away.” Americans, said Black, recognized that Bush would be up to the task in the worst-case scenario.

“I think it will have a bearing,” Black said when asked if McCain’s choice would offer similar inoculation.

“We believe it will be ineffective issue,” said senior adviser Steve Schmidt, noting that it had little impact in the primary. “He’s got a lot of energy, he’s in great shape, has kids in early 20s, and is very much attuned to popular culture.”

Asked about Obama’s tomorrow-versus-yesterday language, Schmidt said: “We have no intention of ceding who’s the best candidate for the future to Obama. It’s about the right kind change versus the wrong kind of change.”

Should Obama get the nomination, though, it’s almost certain to come up. And it likely won’t matter if he raises it or not.

The 25-year difference between the two major candidates would be the most pronounced in the country’s history and would be unavoidable should they be paired together on the debate stage this fall.

“Your either going to see a guy who looks old and tired versus a guy who looks young and fresh,” Beckel said. “Or it will be [John] Edwards versus [Dick] Cheney where Edwards looked like a kid.”

[kellynla]

I subscribe to Groucho Marx's belief, "You're only as old as the woman you feel." BIG SMILE

[kjo]

McCain=Dole II.

Amnesty
Gang of 14
Keating Five
McCain/Feingold

Just what about this guy makes him a conservative?

[TomGuy]

It will. And the Dem candidate will emphasize that GOP stands for Grand OLD Party.

If it is between McCain and Obama it will be between the OLD and the new. Obama has brought in many new (as in young) voters.

The only think that might help McCain is his selection for VP. If he goes with an OLD standard politician, he won't have to worry about writing his inaugural speech.

[kellynla]

“Just what about this guy makes him a conservative?”

I have issues with McCain too but the American Conservative Union gives McCain an 82.3 lifetime ranking.

Of course, at this point, if you have a candidate to vote for, please don’t be shy, who is he/she?

[Eurale]

If the GOP sponsored a free “Jagermeister shots” day on election day, Obetme wouldn’t have a chance with the yute voters.

[kellynla]

There is no levelheaded American going to go into the the voting booth on 11/4 and vote for an anti-American racist for POTUS. And remember I said, “levelheaded American” which automatically excludes Lefties and anyone who depends on government handouts.

Obama wins the Primary and loses the General election.

[kbennkc]

I am afraid age might even be the determining factor . McCain is a terrible extemporaneous speaker and he can not read a teleprompter without a wooden halting delivery . Worse than Dan Quayle”s “deer in the headlights” stare is John McCain’s “two pee holes in the snow” eye contact through the TV camera lens . If you think this is unfair and shallow , you are right , welcome to 1960 .

[kjo]

Newt Gingrich...I plan on writing him in.

[tips up]

This will be an issue for McCain. The NY Slimes has an editorial about it today.

They are pushing for his medical records. Yet what about the records of Bubba or Hillary? No story there...

[Vigilanteman]

“Or it will be [John] Edwards versus [Dick] Cheney where Edwards looked like a kid.”

Those of us who saw that debate remember that the Silk Pony sounded like a kid as well. Cheney mopped the floor with him.

[cripplecreek]

When he loses he’ll probably go off on a rant and finally switch parties.

[ElPatriota]

Reagain was unique and perfect for the times! Today who knows.

Bob Dole on the other hand is just the classic, poster child? of a politician with no solid moral or any principles imo. The type of politician everything is 'negotiable' anything... I don't like or trust this kind. Wasn't he the one pushing, (accedpting contributions from the lob cabbin fags?). Now McCain is cut out from the model, also for the fags - Yes, the homoLesbians are actually very happy, yes, happy because they consider him a very acceptable choice. How do I know? I happen well... to work with several 'women' of this type. I get along very well with them and I would not have an issue with them if they were not trying to 'spread' and indoctrinate our children and society with their culture. They wanted to be 'left alone' in the old days. Today is different, they want to convert as many as they can to their side so they can feel more like the 'rest of us.' That is the difference, a BIG difference imo.

Has anyone ASK MaCaca anything on the homosexual adgenda? No, nothing... must be kept quiet. And you tell me that there is no conspiracy by the left/MSM to push this weasel?

[kellynla]

“Newt Gingrich...I plan on writing him in.”

Lunch-losing video: Gingrich and Pelosi tag-team for Al Gore
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/04/22/lunch-losing-video-gingrich-and-pelosi-tag-team-for-al-gore/

[patch789]

old guy or a muslim

choose

[cripplecreek]

I’m writing Hunter in on my ballot. No more voting for slightly less bad for me.

[KC-10A BOOMER]

Unless a miracle happens at the Republican Convention I’ll be writing in “none of the above” for POTUS and do what I can to keep conservatives in the House and Senate. No more RINOs for me.

[Condor51]

*** I have issues with McCain too but the American Conservative Union gives McCain an 82.3 lifetime ranking. ***

With all due respect, you know that ACU lifetime ranking is meaningless in McCain's case because of his longevity. Last year his rating was a 60. And after getting trounced by Dubya in 2000, the petulant, spoiled brat, McCain's 2001 rating was a 63.

One apology would be like a Baseball player. Including Hall of Fame players like Mr Cub Ernie Banks or .... Lou Gehrig.

Gerhrig's "Lifetime" batting average is .340, BUT in his last full year ('38) was .295 (big drop off)
And Mr Cub's "Lifetime" avg is .274, BUT in his last full year ('69) it was .253 and in '68 a lousy .246

But since they played a looooong time their lifetime avg's didn't suffer form the lousy years. ACU ratings are very very similar in that respect.

And I think you know that those ACU ratings are somewhat misleading even for an individual year as they're based on actual yea, nay votes. And then only on about 20 issues the ACU has a position on. No voice votes, back room deals like the Gang of 14 or backstabbing speeches McCain is infamous for are taken into account.

The ACU rating is just one tool. And just touting McCain's Lifetime rating is IMO a red herring.

[berserker]

The headline is the worst part of this article: it deliberately mimics the phrasing Ari F. used in describing the number of American servicemen who died in Iraq.

[altura]

I keep telling my husband that weight is just a number.

[altura]

The only thing more painful than having to vote for McCain is the constant utterings on this forum of people determined to elect Hillary or Obama.