Posted on 02/25/2008 5:08:27 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
America's grain stocks running short
By Robert Pore robert.pore@theindependent.com
Print Story | e-mail Story | Visit Forums
Global demand for grain and oilseeds is at record levels, causing the nation's grain stocks to reach critically low levels, according to Purdue University agricultural economist Chris Hurt.
With a weak U.S. dollar and global demand so high, foreign buyers are outbidding domestic buyers for American grain, Hurt said.
"Food consumers worldwide are going to have to pay more," Hurt said. "We ended 2007 with our monthly inflation rate on food nearly 5 percent higher. I think we'll see times in 2008 where the food inflation rate might be as much as 6 percent."
Increasing food costs will ignite the debate on food security this year, Hurt said.
"We'll have discussions about whether we should allow the foreign sector to buy our food," he said. "Is food a strategic item that we need to keep in our country?"
The USDA recently released a revised forecast for agricultural exports, predicting a record of $101 billion for fiscal year 2008.
According to the U.S. Grains Council, a significant increase in feed grain exports buoyed the forecasts. Specifically, the forecast for coarse grain exports is raised to 70 million tons, up 2 million tons since November. Corn and sorghum exports are up $2.4 billion from November. Coarse grain exports are forecast at $14.1 billion, $4.3 billion above last year's level.
Hurt said the 2007 U.S. wheat crop is virtually sold out, while domestic soybean stocks soon will fall below a 20-day supply. Corn inventories are stronger, but with demand from export markets, the livestock industry and ethanol plants, supplies also could be just as scarce for the 2008 crop.
More than 70 percent of Nebraska corn crop this year could go to ethanol production.
But what concerns Hurt the most is weather. Adverse weather could trim crop yields this year and cause crop prices to skyrocket even further.
Last year, Nebraska had a record corn crop of nearly 1.5 billion bushels. But rainfall was exceptional last year, especially during the growing season, which helped increase crop yields.
He said recent cash prices for wheat, soybeans and corn are up dramatically from two years ago. Wheat prices have been near $10 a bushel, more than $6 a bushel higher. Cash prices for soybeans are about $13 a bushel, up more than $7 a bushel. Corn is pricing at almost $5 a bushel, an increase of greater than $3 a bushel.
That's right. Let's tell them to grow something. What should we tell them to grow? How do we make them do so? What if they ignore our demands?
That's because you're professor and not a farmer.
Overproduction will continue to be problem. The real breakthoughs in yields are coming, better fertilizers usage through breeding, better drought resistance etc.
Corn production went from 6 to 7 billion bushels in 1985 to 13 billion in 2007. It will double again in less than 10 years with the current incentive to produce. Wheat, soybeans, name the crop, give the farmers the incentive that corn has to grow more, and you'll see the flood of crops continue.
That’s what happens when you subsidize the use crops for fuel instead of food.
Ummm, no, he doesn't. He actually campaigned against farm subsidies for ethanol in Iowa - a big reason of why he did so poorly in that state.
Farmers are well armed and won't like your hijacking of their crops.
Translated into simpler English: this year, if we are paying farmers to NOT grow crops, then eliminate those payments. The farmers may choose to grow crops and sell them, in order to make money to make up for the eliminated farm subsidies
Bravo! Off with their heads.
What's ironic about many of the replies, is that they had to stop eating their big breakfast to type!
The final program isn't in place yet, but from the farmers I've talked to, your wish has been granted.
Carolyn
>>Da, comrade. The kulaks are enemies of the State.
The majority of American Kulaks (small family farmers) were driven out of business decades ago.
Last time we visited what’s left of my wife’s family farm in SD, I was struck by the presence of “BP” signs on gas stations that had previously been under American control. Coincidental to this is the explosion of gambling facilities in the state. It seems there were slot machines available at every exit.
Tyranny of the appetite.
I have a solution for all of these folks with nothing but contempt for farmers and ranchers. They should begin a complete and total boycott of every product produced by farmers and ranchers. Who needs those greedy so-and-so's anyway?
No more trips to the grocery store. Tonight for supper, go out in back of your home. Hunt and gather. Get something out of the garden. It's easy!
Supporting American Farmers and Ranchers in getting a fair price for their products - whilst reducing dependence upon foreign oil is one thing.
Gouging American consumers so Chinese communists can purchase and drive automobiles for the profit of globalist carpetbaggers is quite another.
Protectionists and other economic know nothings think that raising tariffs, taxes and restrictions will lower prices.
True
Our biggest pricing issues in Ag is typically that everything is so over produced we cant make ends meet.
predictions, predictions, predictions
with failure to predict - recognize
that conditions are not static
to the extent that shortages produce higher prices, they also induce others, here and abroad, to become producers
in the long run there is no calamity waiting, only new producers and new market
First “Big Oil,” now “Big Food.” The government must save us! Where can we find an articulate, black man to save us from the market?
If you feel you are being gouged, don’t buy. Provide food and other necessities yourself. If the system is flawed, work toward repairing it, don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
Be careful what you wish for...you might get it. The grain farmers have worked hard to find markets for their excess production.
The government is responsible for skewing the corn market by subsidizing ethanol production. Perhaps that needs some attention/curtailment.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.