Posted on 01/29/2008 7:29:24 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Conservatives and voters troubled by abortion and illegal immigration were backing Mitt Romney as he fought for victory in Florida's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday. Lining up behind John McCain's bid were party moderates, Hispanics and the state's numerous older voters.
As the two struggled for a triumph that could provide momentum for next week's Super Tuesday voting by nearly half the states, they were dividing Floridians along generational lines, according to preliminary results from exit polls of voters conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks. McCain was doing best among the oldest voters, while Romney's appeal was stronger among the middle-aged.
The survey showed Romney and McCain dividing those calling themselves Republicans about evenly.
That would mark continued progress for McCain, the Arizona senator who has been relying chiefly on independents, moderates and other groups on the periphery of the GOP for his strength.
As was true with most previous states, Florida Republicans named the economy as the nation's top problem and Romney and McCain were running about evenly among those who did so. Romney has sought to claim that issue by touting his business background.
They were also even among veterans. McCain has hoped his military background would help him with that group, who were more than a quarter of Tuesday's GOP voters.
Four in 10 conservatives were supporting Romney, the Massachusetts governor, while McCain was backed by about a quarter. Underscoring Romney's appeal to the party's right, nearly half of those saying they are very conservative were behind him. Conservatives dominate Florida's GOP, comprising six in 10 of those voting Tuesday.
Countering that, four in 10 moderates and liberals were lining up behind McCain, double the proportion backing both Romney and Rudy Giuliani. McCain also had a healthy lead among those who described themselves as independents.
Giuliani, the former New York mayor who has hinged his fading candidacy on a Florida victory, and Mike Huckabee were both having problems claiming key constituencies as their own. Huckabee was winnig some votes from white Christian evangelical and born again voters, while Giuliani was getting backing from some Hispanics, abortion rights supporters and people worried about terrorism, but neither was dominating in any area.
In the state's Democratic beauty contest, three quarters of blacks said they were backing Barack Obama while only about a quarter of whites were supporting him. Hillary Rodham Clinton had the support of just over half of white voters, John Edwards one in five.
Hispanics were favoring Clinton by a two-to-one margin. All together, the racial voting patterns were similar to those in previous racially mixed Democratic contests in South Carolina and Nevada.
Clinton was winning among women while she and Obama were roughly even with men. Once again this had a racial component: Clinton led Obama by about a three-to-one among white women, while Obama was ahead by about the same proportion among black females.
Democratic candidates did not campaign in the state because the national party was penalizing Florida Democrats for moving their primary up in the voting calendar. No delegates were at stake, and the voting was essentially a popularity contest.
As for the Republicans, Romney was getting four in 10 votes from those who think abortion should be illegal, compared to McCain's one quarter. Romney was also backed by nearly half of those who said illegal immigration was the country's top problem, double McCain's share, though they were a small group of voters.
Hispanics make up more than one-tenth of GOP voters, including the large South Florida population of Cubans. McCain was getting support from half of those groups, double the share won by Giuliani, his closest competitor in that area.
Florida has one of the oldest populations in the country, and nearly four in 10 Republicans voting Tuesday were over age 65. This group was giving McCain — who is 71 — four in 10 of their votes for a solid lead over Romney. But Romney had a slight lead among those younger than that, showing particular strength with people age 50 to 64.
White evangelical and born-again Christians were splitting their votes roughly evenly among Romney, McCain and Huckabee. That group had powered Huckabee to an Iowa victory, but his grasp on them has weakened.
About four in 10 voters said Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's weekend endorsement of McCain played an important role in their vote decision. Half of them backed McCain, but many of them also said they'd picked a candidate before Crist embraced McCain.
Highlighting Giuliani's problems, he was sharing the lead with the small number of voters who said terrorism was the country's top issue, a blow the man who hoped his performance after the Sept. 11 attacks on his city would power his presidential candidacy. He also did poorly with moderates, people who want a candidate with experience and those worried about the economy, and only one in 10 named him the party's likeliest winner in November.
The poll was conducted for the AP and the television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International as voters exited 40 sites in Florida. The Democratic poll interviewed 989 primary voters, the Republican survey 970. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 5 percentage points for both parties.
Consrevatives are lining up with Mitt.
Liberals illegals are lining up with McCain.
Hey, I’m an older voter, 61 years old this year, and I’d NEVER vote for that backstabbing vermin McCain.
I voted for Hunter up here in NH, but now I’m pulling for Romney, who is WAY, WAY better than that treacherous, bitter old coot McCain.
Looks to me like McCain will be the nominee... assuming he doesn’t self destruct between now and this summer.
This country is in trouble. Big, big trouble.
I guess I will donate to Mitt’s campaign and hope for the best on Super Tuesday.
If Huck gets out, what do you think? McCain? Romney?
I hereby endose John McCain’s immediate withdrawl from the presidential race and retirement from the United States Senate!
BTTT!
As a former Democrat I always knew what the party’s ideology was. The GOP has an identity crisis, especially in the large states like California, New York, and Illinois. There are many liberal and moderate Republicans in those three states, and they can’t always be counted on for their votes, especially if a conservative is the head of the ticket. Conservatism may be the prevailing view of the Republican Party, but it’s not uniform throughout the country. There is not another Ronald Reagan out there who can unite all these different factions of the party. The GOP is in for a rough time in the years to come.
well said!
I predict McCain will go all the way.
And I think (hope) that conservatives will stand up become the opposotion party that Republicans should have been in the last eight years.
Why not a Clinton/Mexicain ticket and save all the cost and trouble of an election?
I second, third, forth, or whatever that!!! Be gone with
McPain.
Both parties are big tents. The dems have a worse problem with more diverse groups but have communist style organizational skills to compensate. The Republican Party hasn't grown since Reagan and found a way to operate as a big tent without the moderate wing scoffing at the religious conservatives and without the social conservatives taking their ball and going home if they don't dominate. Only teams and coalitions with effective leadership win. The Republican Party needs a strong leader that can bring both camps together and fight against a greater common enemy - socialism.
Look what’s voting for him ... Hispanics, illegals, relatives of illegals ... he’s going to bring about shamnesty again, AFTER the fence is up. He has NOT backed off that idea ... .
Let him do it without my help.
Huck won’t get out until Mitt’s finished. He pulls more from Romney, so he’s to stay in longer. Giuliani’s withdraw, otoh, likely helps Sen. McCain-Kennedy, hence his exit.
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