Posted on 01/29/2008 11:55:19 AM PST by Sideshow Bob
There have been more than a few recent articles and editorials attempting to affix blame for the demise of the Republican Party. Peggy Noonan blames President Bush. Rush Limbaugh believes a McCain nomination will kill the party. However, even in a worse case scenario, the Republican Party will probably stagger along for several years much like the last decade of the Whigs. Conservative Republicans should probably be more concerned about the impending demise of the conservative movement within the party. Some individuals can be blamed more than others, but this folly has many fathers. The latest blow to conservatives has come from within – thanks to Dr. James Dobson and other egotistical evangelicals. Political doomsayers may be correct and it is likely too late to save the conservative movement in 2008. Conservatives can correct their path to destruction for 2010 and beyond, but only if they look back at recent history, recognize the actions and actors that have brought the party and movement to this point, and to learn from a long series of missteps and mistakes.
Ronald Reagan built a winning coalition of conservatives, independents and establishment moderate Republicans in 1980. A coalition of social, economic and security conservatives had come together to form a plurality within the GOP and wrest leadership of the party from the establishment, moderate GOP. The Iran-Contra scandal (Mistake #1) weakened the coalition and the moderate wing of the party regained control of the GOP (Mistake #2), which led to the election of President George H.W. Bush (Mistake #3).
While the elder Bush had adopted – albeit reluctantly – many conservative ideals, he and the moderate GOP leaders advocated a “kinder, gentler” approach (Mistake #4). Conservatives might have been content to take a back seat to moderate GOP leadership, but they read Bush’s lips and their support and enthusiasm for the Republican Party evaporated after the Bush tax increase (Mistake #5). In 1992 some conservatives were taken in by Ross Perot and his anti-establishment, anti-Washington message (Mistake #6). Others just stayed home (Mistake #7) and helped Democrats elect the Dope from Hope, Bill Clinton, with just 43% of the popular vote (Mistake #8).
The only positive to come out of 1992 was that it helped create an opening for an obscure, but brilliant Congressman from Georgia to lead conservatives to regain control of the Republican Party. Newt Gingrich reformed the three-legged conservative coalition and took an upstart innovative approach of leading the GOP from the House with a 1994 national congressional campaign platform – the Contract with America.
It is important to note that prior to the ’94 elections, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole and other establishment, moderate GOP leaders scoffed at and were dismissive of Gingrich and the Contract. Dole and Senate moderates rode the Contract’s election coattails, but made it plain that the GOP Senate did NOT sign on to the program, was not obligated to it, reluctantly followed Gingrich's lead, and worked to water down each and every one of the Contract's provisions (Mistake #9).
By January 1996, Dole was the presumptive Republican presidential nominee (Mistake #10). Dole sought to convince Speaker Gingrich to fold up the federal government shutdown stalemate with President Clinton and allow Dole to lead the GOP via his presidential campaign.
Dole gave Gingrich the choice of single-handedly continuing the shutdown and fight with Clinton and the media with Candidate Dole seeking a different path from the House GOP or deferring to Dole's presidential campaign and resuming the conservative battle together with Gingrich’s friend Trent Lott to keep President Dole honest after the ’96 elections. Gingrich made the wrong choice (Mistake #11). Gingrich probably should have run for President himself in 1996 (Mistake #12).
We all remember what happened. By caving in and compromising on the shutdown, the conservative House leadership lost some of their ability to control their more moderate members (Mistake #13). Bob Dole lost (Mistake #14). Trent Lott built his own voice separate from the House (Mistake #15). And with no help from Lott & the GOP Senate and a Clinton veto looming on all conservative issues, Gingrich, Armey & DeLay focused too much of their efforts on the growing Clinton scandals (Mistake #16).
Gingrich was able to maintain order within the House even during the Clinton impeachment. But after the Senate RINOs failed to do their duty and convict Clinton (Mistake #17), the House moderates began feeling their oats (Mistake #18).
Then, the impact of the missing FBI files took effect. Allegations of marital affairs Gingrich and Hyde took their toll (Mistake #19). Seeing his conservative House coalition slowly diminish and Lott's desire to set on a different path, Gingrich stepped down as Speaker (Mistake #20). Then his presumed successor, Bob Livingston from Louisiana, was also taken out by a marital affair (Mistake #21).
House Moderates became emboldened and championed the lackluster Dennis Hastert as Speaker to muzzle Armey & DeLay and appear less confrontational (Mistake #22). This effort also helped to clear the agenda of party leadership for the 2000 GOP presidential candidates (Mistake #23). And in 2000, conservatives settled for the "compassionate conservatism" of George W. Bush (Mistake #24). Many conservatives stayed home, nearly costing Bush the presidency and actually losing GOP control of the Senate in 2000 (Mistake #25).
To be fair, conservatives should thank God everyday for W's leadership in dealing with 9-11. But Bush also squandered the opportunity to push the party and country to the right following that horrible event (Mistake #26). The GOP regained control of the Senate in 2002, but based solely on the country’s fears of Democrats’ inability to deal with national security concerns and not on conservative social and economic principles. Meanwhile, the House drifted further to the center (Mistake #27).
Conservative fears of repeating Florida 2000 helped Bush win reelection in 2004, despite the party's overall drift to the center. By now, any conservative elements in the House and Senate were in complete retreat. The moderates ruled the roost in both houses. RINO defections on the Iraq war (Mistake #28), wasteful earmarks (Mistake #29) and ethics scandals (Mistake #29) were now front and center for the GOP. The only conservative victories of 2005-06 were the confirmations of Roberts and Alito to the Supreme Court. And it took a battle to defeat Bush on his nomination of Harriet Miers to do it.
By Fall 2006 conservatives had become utterly disheartened. Attempts to make the Bush tax cuts permanent stalled (Mistake #30), the continued treachery of Arlen Spector, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and the Gang of 14 (Mistake #31), increased dissatisfaction with George Bush and the Miers nomination debacle all caused conservatives to stay home in November 2006 (Mistake #32). And the GOP lost both the House and Senate.
Occasionally, the conservative movement can still rise up. The reaction to the Amnesty bill was encouraging. But other than that, conservatives have again been wandering in the wilderness. GOP moderates and RINO's have been resistant to allowing a conservative to assume leadership in Congress. And any potential conservative congressional leader has held back (Mistake #33), in part due to the extremely early start of the 2008 presidential race (Mistake #34).
And what did conservatives get for 2008 GOP candidates? Were there any Reagan conservatives who possessed all three legs of the coalition stool - strong national defense, social conservatism, economic conservatism?
Nope.
Instead, we got Rudy Giuliani. An autocrat who has little affection for social conservatives, but pledged to nominate strict construction judges. Whoopee!
Instead, we got John McCain. An angry RINO maverick who enjoys flouting social and economic conservatives AND even the GOP establishment to gain favor and positive reviews from the liberal media.
Instead, we got Mitt Romney, an uber-wealthy GOP establishment moderate. At least Romney panders to social and economic conservatives with recently discovered flip-flopped positions on issues of importance to those two factions.
Instead, we got Mike Huckabee – the Dope from Hope, part II. While he is just as slick and manipulative as Bill Clinton, Huckabee is nowhere near as smart.
Instead, we got Ron Paul, a true blue, libertarian nutbag. Paul has a few economic bona fides that have pulled away a few non-nut job libertarians. But I'm sorry, Dr. Paul is a kook.
Instead, we got the Obscure Four - Tom Tancredo, Alan Keyes, Tommy Thompson & Duncan Hunter. Tancredo & Keyes are single issue candidates. Tommy & Dunc are well-rounded politicians (especially Hunter), but they lacked the ability to have broad nationwide appeal.
Seeing this morass of blech, Fred Thompson entered the fray expecting to be the savior of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. Fred should have been that candidate.
Unfortunately, Dr. James Dobson and a few evangelical leaders decided to cut off their nose to spite their face (Mistake #35). You see, Fred's not a Bible thumper. Neither was Ronald Reagan. And like Reagan, Fred is a bona fide, all-around, federalist conservative. That wasn’t good enough for Dobson. And when Fred refused to kiss Dobson's ring of evangelical purity, Dobson went shopping for a candidate he thought he could control.
Flim Flam Huckabee seized on that opportunity. Huckabee played Dobson into thinking that Dobson could be a GOP kingmaker (Mistake #36). A handful of evangelical leaders blindly pushed Huckabee as a viable conservative (Mistake #37). The media, who knows a GOP loser when they see one, helped fan the flames of Huckabee's support. For a time, the scheme worked. Huckabee won Iowa (Mistake #38), but eventually the truth of Huckabee's Christian Socialism became evident to most conservatives.
But the damage had been done. Social conservatives were now spilt. Some had been taken in by Huckabee's class warfare (Mistake #39). Some had been taken in by the media's false depiction of Fred as a lazy campaigner (Mistake #40) and settled for Romney, Rudy or, worse, McCain (Mistake #41).
Added into this deceptive mix was the ability of independents and Democrats to participate in and distort the Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina Republican primaries (Mistake #42). Media darling McCain was back! McCain – the new Comeback Kid – was ready to lead....the GOP down to defeat. Meanwhile, Fred's race and the ability for the GOP to unify behind a Reaganesque conservative died (Mistake #43).
At best, the GOP could still end up with a George W. Bush-lite nominee like Mitt Romney. He will at least pretend to care about conservative ideals from his Country Club wing of the party.
At worst, the GOP could end up with John McCain. McCain, the perennial thorn in the GOP's side who was once touted as a possible VP running mate for John Kerry!
Who knows? It’s still remotely possible that none of the moderates and RINO’s still in the presidential race will win a majority of the primary delegates. Maybe a conservative nominee could still rise up in a brokered GOP convention. Maybe a conservative national congressional campaign like the Contract with America could still arise in time for the 2008 elections. But really, that’s a fantasy.
The reality is that conservatives will have to wait until 2010 or 2012 to reassert itself as the true and legitimate leaders of the Republican Party. The reality is that conservatives have allowed numerous people to make numerous mistakes which have led the movement to this precarious point. The reality is that conservatives and the GOP are now left with this Dobson's Choice of Romney or McCain. Pass the nose clips and prepare for the worst.
Now for the GOP field. Same deal.
Brownback – 0% fair trade voting record (0/10 votes). Wrong on NAFTA for Africa (twice), on China PNTR, Fast Track 2002 (once), NAFTA expansions to Chile, Singapore, Australia, Central America, and Oman. Didn’t vote for Fast Track 2002 (once).
Thompson – 0% fair trade voting record (0/5 votes). Wrong on NAFTA for Africa (twice), Fast Track 2002 (twice), and China PNTR.
McCain – 6% fair trade voting record (1/16 votes). McCain voted right on Fast Track 1988; wrong on everything else (Canada FTA, Fast Track disapproval, Fast Track 1993 and 2002 (twice), NAFTA, WTO, NAFTA for Africa (once), Chile, Singapore, Australia, Central America, Oman, and China PNTR). Didn’t vote on NAFTA for Africa (once).
Tancredo – 47% fair trade voting record (7/15 votes). He voted right on China PNTR, WTO withdrawal (twice), and NAFTA expansions to Chile, Singapore, Central America, and Oman. Voted wrong on Fast Track 1998, NAFTA for Africa (twice), wrong on Fast Track 2001-02 (twice), and NAFTA expansions to Australia and Bahrain.
Hunter – 71% fair trade voting record (17/24 votes right). He voted wrong on Fast Track 1984 (twice), the Israel FTA, Fast Track 2001, and the Australia, Bahrain and Oman FTAs. He was right on Canada FTA, Fast Track 1988, Fast Track disapproval, Fast Track 1993, NAFTA, WTO, Fast Track 1998, NAFTA for Africa (twice), China PNTR, WTO withdrawal (twice), Fast Track 2002, NAFTA expansions to Chile, Singapore, Morocco and Central America.
Paul – 83% fair trade voting record (15/18 votes right). Like Kucinich, he didn’t show for the Morocco FTA, and he appears to have voted wrong on Fast Track 1984 (twice). But see note below. Everything else was right (Fast Track 1979, 1998, 2001, 2002, NAFTA for Africa (twice), Chile, Singapore, Australia, Central America, Bahrain, Oman, and China PNTR, and WTO withdrawal (twice).)
Funny, those things you mention don’t seem to be hurting McCain. Divorced under ugly circumstances, authored McCain Feingoll etc., I don’t pictures of McCain coming out of Church every Sunday, but Dobson didn’t trash him and here we are?
Yup, that about sums it up. My opinion of Dobson has changed to nothing but contempt.
So, you're against the state's rights when it's one of your issues.
There is a difference between regulating something and defining something. States may have the right to regulate the drinking age, but that doesn't mean that they have the right to define the chemical composition of alcohol or define the meaning of "100 proof". By the same token, states have the right to 'regulate' marriage in terms of the restrictions that they put on it, but that doesn't mean that the states have the right to DEFINE marriage. They are two entirely different things. One belongs at the state level, and the other, apparently, needs to be done at the federal level.
ping
Conservatives have to back their guy in each primary race
_________________________________________________________
Nod. And with McCain the likely nominee we’ve all got to get involved with the immigration groups to make sure they have the soldiers and the cash to fight with if McCain goes off the reservation — again.
I believe most of the Dobson haters on this thread probably hated him for years before this incident with Fred. (Unlike you of course).
Jesus said “he who hates his brother is in danger of ____ ____”. Can you fill in the blanks?
Not me. Listened to his radio show regularly. I have read many of his books. I respected him. All past tense.
In thinking more about your post you left out the 2 big mistakes I believe Ronald Reagan made:
1) Naming George Bush his VP. (Lesson: It is a mistake for a conservative nominee to pick anyone other than a fellow conservative for V.P. — there is a good chance they will undo the conservative legacy that the conservative President builds).
2) Reagan’s 1980’s amnesty for illegals, tipping the demographic scales a bit to the left — enough to lose some important races for Republicans — and a mistake that only grows over time as the legalized illegals higher birth rates continue to tip the scales more and more. My “open minded” conservative friends tell me that the illegals will all be good conservatives in a few generations (they say “just look at the Italians and Irish” . . . I say take a look at politics in New York and Massachusetts . . . it’s not that simple).
It’s unusual to lay conservative failures at the feet of Reagan — but he was the seminal modern conservative — the rudder for the modern movement and in those two cases he pointed conservatives in the wrong direction.
That is a fair enough argument. I'm not opposed to a DOMA. I see it as dead in the water, though. So pretending that I would get it done as I campaigned for President (and I'm still not sure how a President gets an Amendment passed) is pandering, imo. Appointing conservative justices would accomplish far more in the long run than a currently almost hopeless chance to pass the DOMA.
See you and raise you.
Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye are like unto _______ ________, which indeed appear _________ outward, but are within full of _______ ______ ______ , and of all _______________.
I'm not saying the verse applies to you, but rather to Dobson. And also pointing out that Jesus had no problem using harsh language in his criticism of religiosity. And further, that his harsh language did not mean he hated the direct objects of his speech.
“The reality is that conservatives will have to wait until 2010 or 2012 to reassert itself as the true and legitimate leaders of the Republican Party.”
No, the reality is that conservative MUST move to a third party...The GOP is dead.
Without looking it up I would say:
whited sepulchres
clean
dead mens bones
can’t remember the last one.
unrighteousness?
The KJV has "uncleannes" for the last, but we'll definitely give it to you.
Huckabee is anything he needs to be to fool people like you. It’s as simple as that.
I’m smiling and gonna feel good all day about passing your test. :>)
Yeah, when I say that we are not idiots: (which is what the808bass implied) I'm sure that every single person in any homeschool association would agree with me.
No that would be Romney. Romney is the one that has flipflopped all over the place.
And again, NEITHER DOBSON NOR YOU speak for all Christians.
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