Posted on 01/29/2008 11:55:19 AM PST by Sideshow Bob
There have been more than a few recent articles and editorials attempting to affix blame for the demise of the Republican Party. Peggy Noonan blames President Bush. Rush Limbaugh believes a McCain nomination will kill the party. However, even in a worse case scenario, the Republican Party will probably stagger along for several years much like the last decade of the Whigs. Conservative Republicans should probably be more concerned about the impending demise of the conservative movement within the party. Some individuals can be blamed more than others, but this folly has many fathers. The latest blow to conservatives has come from within – thanks to Dr. James Dobson and other egotistical evangelicals. Political doomsayers may be correct and it is likely too late to save the conservative movement in 2008. Conservatives can correct their path to destruction for 2010 and beyond, but only if they look back at recent history, recognize the actions and actors that have brought the party and movement to this point, and to learn from a long series of missteps and mistakes.
Ronald Reagan built a winning coalition of conservatives, independents and establishment moderate Republicans in 1980. A coalition of social, economic and security conservatives had come together to form a plurality within the GOP and wrest leadership of the party from the establishment, moderate GOP. The Iran-Contra scandal (Mistake #1) weakened the coalition and the moderate wing of the party regained control of the GOP (Mistake #2), which led to the election of President George H.W. Bush (Mistake #3).
While the elder Bush had adopted – albeit reluctantly – many conservative ideals, he and the moderate GOP leaders advocated a “kinder, gentler” approach (Mistake #4). Conservatives might have been content to take a back seat to moderate GOP leadership, but they read Bush’s lips and their support and enthusiasm for the Republican Party evaporated after the Bush tax increase (Mistake #5). In 1992 some conservatives were taken in by Ross Perot and his anti-establishment, anti-Washington message (Mistake #6). Others just stayed home (Mistake #7) and helped Democrats elect the Dope from Hope, Bill Clinton, with just 43% of the popular vote (Mistake #8).
The only positive to come out of 1992 was that it helped create an opening for an obscure, but brilliant Congressman from Georgia to lead conservatives to regain control of the Republican Party. Newt Gingrich reformed the three-legged conservative coalition and took an upstart innovative approach of leading the GOP from the House with a 1994 national congressional campaign platform – the Contract with America.
It is important to note that prior to the ’94 elections, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole and other establishment, moderate GOP leaders scoffed at and were dismissive of Gingrich and the Contract. Dole and Senate moderates rode the Contract’s election coattails, but made it plain that the GOP Senate did NOT sign on to the program, was not obligated to it, reluctantly followed Gingrich's lead, and worked to water down each and every one of the Contract's provisions (Mistake #9).
By January 1996, Dole was the presumptive Republican presidential nominee (Mistake #10). Dole sought to convince Speaker Gingrich to fold up the federal government shutdown stalemate with President Clinton and allow Dole to lead the GOP via his presidential campaign.
Dole gave Gingrich the choice of single-handedly continuing the shutdown and fight with Clinton and the media with Candidate Dole seeking a different path from the House GOP or deferring to Dole's presidential campaign and resuming the conservative battle together with Gingrich’s friend Trent Lott to keep President Dole honest after the ’96 elections. Gingrich made the wrong choice (Mistake #11). Gingrich probably should have run for President himself in 1996 (Mistake #12).
We all remember what happened. By caving in and compromising on the shutdown, the conservative House leadership lost some of their ability to control their more moderate members (Mistake #13). Bob Dole lost (Mistake #14). Trent Lott built his own voice separate from the House (Mistake #15). And with no help from Lott & the GOP Senate and a Clinton veto looming on all conservative issues, Gingrich, Armey & DeLay focused too much of their efforts on the growing Clinton scandals (Mistake #16).
Gingrich was able to maintain order within the House even during the Clinton impeachment. But after the Senate RINOs failed to do their duty and convict Clinton (Mistake #17), the House moderates began feeling their oats (Mistake #18).
Then, the impact of the missing FBI files took effect. Allegations of marital affairs Gingrich and Hyde took their toll (Mistake #19). Seeing his conservative House coalition slowly diminish and Lott's desire to set on a different path, Gingrich stepped down as Speaker (Mistake #20). Then his presumed successor, Bob Livingston from Louisiana, was also taken out by a marital affair (Mistake #21).
House Moderates became emboldened and championed the lackluster Dennis Hastert as Speaker to muzzle Armey & DeLay and appear less confrontational (Mistake #22). This effort also helped to clear the agenda of party leadership for the 2000 GOP presidential candidates (Mistake #23). And in 2000, conservatives settled for the "compassionate conservatism" of George W. Bush (Mistake #24). Many conservatives stayed home, nearly costing Bush the presidency and actually losing GOP control of the Senate in 2000 (Mistake #25).
To be fair, conservatives should thank God everyday for W's leadership in dealing with 9-11. But Bush also squandered the opportunity to push the party and country to the right following that horrible event (Mistake #26). The GOP regained control of the Senate in 2002, but based solely on the country’s fears of Democrats’ inability to deal with national security concerns and not on conservative social and economic principles. Meanwhile, the House drifted further to the center (Mistake #27).
Conservative fears of repeating Florida 2000 helped Bush win reelection in 2004, despite the party's overall drift to the center. By now, any conservative elements in the House and Senate were in complete retreat. The moderates ruled the roost in both houses. RINO defections on the Iraq war (Mistake #28), wasteful earmarks (Mistake #29) and ethics scandals (Mistake #29) were now front and center for the GOP. The only conservative victories of 2005-06 were the confirmations of Roberts and Alito to the Supreme Court. And it took a battle to defeat Bush on his nomination of Harriet Miers to do it.
By Fall 2006 conservatives had become utterly disheartened. Attempts to make the Bush tax cuts permanent stalled (Mistake #30), the continued treachery of Arlen Spector, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and the Gang of 14 (Mistake #31), increased dissatisfaction with George Bush and the Miers nomination debacle all caused conservatives to stay home in November 2006 (Mistake #32). And the GOP lost both the House and Senate.
Occasionally, the conservative movement can still rise up. The reaction to the Amnesty bill was encouraging. But other than that, conservatives have again been wandering in the wilderness. GOP moderates and RINO's have been resistant to allowing a conservative to assume leadership in Congress. And any potential conservative congressional leader has held back (Mistake #33), in part due to the extremely early start of the 2008 presidential race (Mistake #34).
And what did conservatives get for 2008 GOP candidates? Were there any Reagan conservatives who possessed all three legs of the coalition stool - strong national defense, social conservatism, economic conservatism?
Nope.
Instead, we got Rudy Giuliani. An autocrat who has little affection for social conservatives, but pledged to nominate strict construction judges. Whoopee!
Instead, we got John McCain. An angry RINO maverick who enjoys flouting social and economic conservatives AND even the GOP establishment to gain favor and positive reviews from the liberal media.
Instead, we got Mitt Romney, an uber-wealthy GOP establishment moderate. At least Romney panders to social and economic conservatives with recently discovered flip-flopped positions on issues of importance to those two factions.
Instead, we got Mike Huckabee – the Dope from Hope, part II. While he is just as slick and manipulative as Bill Clinton, Huckabee is nowhere near as smart.
Instead, we got Ron Paul, a true blue, libertarian nutbag. Paul has a few economic bona fides that have pulled away a few non-nut job libertarians. But I'm sorry, Dr. Paul is a kook.
Instead, we got the Obscure Four - Tom Tancredo, Alan Keyes, Tommy Thompson & Duncan Hunter. Tancredo & Keyes are single issue candidates. Tommy & Dunc are well-rounded politicians (especially Hunter), but they lacked the ability to have broad nationwide appeal.
Seeing this morass of blech, Fred Thompson entered the fray expecting to be the savior of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. Fred should have been that candidate.
Unfortunately, Dr. James Dobson and a few evangelical leaders decided to cut off their nose to spite their face (Mistake #35). You see, Fred's not a Bible thumper. Neither was Ronald Reagan. And like Reagan, Fred is a bona fide, all-around, federalist conservative. That wasn’t good enough for Dobson. And when Fred refused to kiss Dobson's ring of evangelical purity, Dobson went shopping for a candidate he thought he could control.
Flim Flam Huckabee seized on that opportunity. Huckabee played Dobson into thinking that Dobson could be a GOP kingmaker (Mistake #36). A handful of evangelical leaders blindly pushed Huckabee as a viable conservative (Mistake #37). The media, who knows a GOP loser when they see one, helped fan the flames of Huckabee's support. For a time, the scheme worked. Huckabee won Iowa (Mistake #38), but eventually the truth of Huckabee's Christian Socialism became evident to most conservatives.
But the damage had been done. Social conservatives were now spilt. Some had been taken in by Huckabee's class warfare (Mistake #39). Some had been taken in by the media's false depiction of Fred as a lazy campaigner (Mistake #40) and settled for Romney, Rudy or, worse, McCain (Mistake #41).
Added into this deceptive mix was the ability of independents and Democrats to participate in and distort the Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina Republican primaries (Mistake #42). Media darling McCain was back! McCain – the new Comeback Kid – was ready to lead....the GOP down to defeat. Meanwhile, Fred's race and the ability for the GOP to unify behind a Reaganesque conservative died (Mistake #43).
At best, the GOP could still end up with a George W. Bush-lite nominee like Mitt Romney. He will at least pretend to care about conservative ideals from his Country Club wing of the party.
At worst, the GOP could end up with John McCain. McCain, the perennial thorn in the GOP's side who was once touted as a possible VP running mate for John Kerry!
Who knows? It’s still remotely possible that none of the moderates and RINO’s still in the presidential race will win a majority of the primary delegates. Maybe a conservative nominee could still rise up in a brokered GOP convention. Maybe a conservative national congressional campaign like the Contract with America could still arise in time for the 2008 elections. But really, that’s a fantasy.
The reality is that conservatives will have to wait until 2010 or 2012 to reassert itself as the true and legitimate leaders of the Republican Party. The reality is that conservatives have allowed numerous people to make numerous mistakes which have led the movement to this precarious point. The reality is that conservatives and the GOP are now left with this Dobson's Choice of Romney or McCain. Pass the nose clips and prepare for the worst.
I would agree with that. There may be some who voted for him for reasons other than his status as an evangelical preacher, but not too many.
I appreciate your sense of humor.
WMM ;>)
Who would you suggest...
Your post is misinformation. Hunter’s “fair trade” crusade goes well beyond the defense industry. He is a protectionist, and I’m sure that populist streak in him was what ultimately drew him the the Dope from Hope.
Thanks for that succinct analysis of Fred’s campaign problems. I find myself nodding in agreement.
No, Huckabee is not a socialist. And I suppose you think Romney with his tax increases and Romneycare is somehow better than Huckabee?
I don't personally dislike Romney because he is a Mormon. But I think electing a Mormon to the office of President, legitimizes Mormonism. Mormonism is a severe distortion of true Christianity. So severe, that almost all mainstream Christian organizations consider Mormonism to not be Christian. It's absolutely the wrong signal to send to the youth of this country. So if need be, I will vote for a democrat to keep Romney out of office.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7VAnby4a6k
I will not subject the country that I love to what transpired during that administration, just so we can have a real conservative in 2012. I thought only democrats wished ill will on our military, economy, and families in order to advance their agenda.
I’m game......:o)
We have everything to win and nothing too lose at this stage.
Fred was always going to have trouble with Evangelicals, as the SoCon vs. Fred wars here attested.
In the first place, being non-practicing (non-church-going) and divorced are two big, big hurdles. Saying his faith was not going to be a big part of his campaign was another huge problem. Those things alone would tend to lean evangelicals away from him, and toward a more "Christian" candidate.
Add in his history with McCain-Feingold, which castrated the political speech of Christian organizations, dissing the Value Voters Debate as nearly his first official act, and coming out against the two Christian sponsored amendments.
All that together plus Dobson... there's your perfect storm.
Including the time requirement on ratification by the states? Look, your amendments were NOT going to pass anytime in the immediate near future? There is no need for any candidate to sign onto those quixotic efforts other than to falsely pander to the politically obtuse.
Then I suppose that you dissagree with the founding fathers on the things that they already federalized?
I believe numerous federal laws are in direct violation of the Constitution and should be struck down on that basis. It stands to reason that the presidential candidate with the best federalist credentials would have been best suited to nominate judges and justices.
By the way, what was the name of that guy that led Chief Justice Roberts through the nomination process?
Dear Supersensitive Sideshow Bob, I didn't call you bad people or un-Christian. But a lot of conservatives, Dobson, and myself included, felt protecting marriage and abortion were key issues and Fred, a great guy, just wasn't on the same page.
Well, Dobson did say Fred wasn't a Christian. And he did it to harm Fred politically.
I'm sorry, Dobson isn't on the same page as this evangelical Christian. And neither the sanctimonious Dobson nor you nor any other Huckabee freaks are on the same page as most conservatives or Republicans.
I respectfully disagree that, at the federal level, “Voting against tort reform is a major blemish” or even a blemish of any kind.
The federal government has no business getting into state matters like state tort law. If a state wants to ruin its economy and chase away doctors (like WVA), that’s that state’s problem, and needs to be addressed at the state level.
“Just like ‘Mackerel Snapper is a respectful term for Catholics.”
I’m Catholic and find the term “Mackerel Snapper” amusing.
Get a thicker skin.
When many businesses are exposed to liabilities across state lines, it is a federal issue.
1. That’s not what the tort reform was about.
2. More goverment regulation is never the conservative answer.
“Dobson is a complete ass -— THAT was THE moment when the tide turned against Thompson.”
Your statement is correct.
Gingrich is not running for President. He's too smart for that because he knows he'd fare no better with SoCons than Thompson did. Everybody knows it! How can any conservative of any kind trust a guy who can't even be faithful to the wife of his youth?
Before you say "Reagan", realize that Reagan was abandoned by his first wife and did not do the abandoning.
Dobson does not have a flock, which shows you know absolutely nothing about Dobson. And Dobson does not get too clever by half by trying to manipulate an outcome in March 2007; before Fred had even gotten close to getting in the race; through a minefield of undesirables; via an opinion posing as analysis. He was simply telling it like it was. You are accusing Dobson of doing exactly what Limbaugh has been doing since mid December.
I must have missed the memo on the Christian sponsored amendments. Did Christ return to earth and endorse them? Oh, I know, Pope Benedict included it in his last papal address, right?
And there is a difference between opposing an amendment and endorsing a patronizing and losing political effort. As an evangelical Christian, I oppose abortion and gay marriage. As a conservative, I don't support constitutiaonal amendments that violate my belief in federalism and are unlikely to be ratified in my lifetime.
As for McCain-Feingold, Fred completely disavowed his former support for that abomination on free speech. But I seem to recall that an evangelical Christian George W. Bush) signed that bill into law.
Value Voters Debate? Other than Huckabee and Hunter - no one showed up for that non-event! I fail to see how Fred's appearance at a sparsely attended non-event watched by 37 people on EWTN would have seriously impacted the race, other than to stroke the egos and kissing the...er...um...rings of certain, so-called evangelical Christian leaders.
In the Pastoral sense of having a flock you may be right, still there are literally millions of Christians who every single Sunday get his opinion on Christian values and matters, in those instances he's Biblically correct and right. He had no business whatsoever issuing a statement on whether or not a particular candidate is a Christian. He stabbed Fred Thompson in the back, and for that he's lost my respect forever, and I now have to question every word he utters.
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